Hurricanes currently sitting at (-16)

[fastcane]

Usually a line move that big is because of an injury to someone important. All week here in Vegas the line has been 18 to 19 depending on the casino so there isn't really a 4 point move in one day. Opening line on Monday or late Sunday night was 20 within minutes it was down to 18,5 to 19.
a

Da fug is happening with this line. -20 earlier in the day.

this, the $$ is moving

4 points in a day smells rotten

All the money is moving towards Miami..... you all are seeing it the wrong way.

Vegas wants to win big regardless if the favorite or the underdog covers..... If all the money is moving to one side they will try to **** with the lines to get people to jump ship and put it on the other.... in this case USF.

No pick is 100% but i wouldnt fall for it..... i'm still all in on Miami covering BIG.

This is wrong. The general public bets with the favorites. The general public can move lines, but not 4 points in one day. That's sharp money making the line move. And the application of your logic is backwards.

 

[zone3cane]

Okay so your saying the tactical heavy betters are putting their money on USF which is causing the line to move drastically the opposite way?

Sharp money on the underdog will push the line down. I'm saying that some of the pros dropped serious cheese on USF today. By comparison, a lot of sharp money came in on the Ravens and moved the line about a point down. This line moved about 4 points down today. I haven't checked, but I'm sure that's the biggest movement for the games this weekend. Scary.

I understand where you coming from but unless some Miami players have been paid to throw the game then I have to stick to my guns on this one....

I still expect a blow out and a -16 spread only makes it even easier for Miami to cover imo.

 

[miamifan007]

Anytime you think you have a rock solid, can't lose lock you... should run away and not touch it.

This.

 

[SmokeyRone]

I'm telling you, the oddsmakers and big bettors have written off Morris.

Easy money (unless they are right, which I don't believe)

 

[caneofny]

Gotta find the % of bets placed on each side...

 

[zone3cane]

I'm telling you, the oddsmakers and big bettors have written off Morris.

Easy money (unless they are right, which I don't believe)

lol yeah they've written Morris "off" 3 games into the season and after he threw 2 TDs against Florida?????

 

[miamifan007]

I'm telling you, the oddsmakers and big bettors have written off Morris.

Easy money (unless they are right, which I don't believe)

Even if Morris doesn't play good or gets hurt again (God forbid), we're winning this game big.

 

[SmokeyRone]

I'm telling you, the oddsmakers and big bettors have written off Morris.

Easy money (unless they are right, which I don't believe)

lol yeah they've written Morris "off" 3 games into the season and after he threw 2 TDs against Florida?????

Well, maybe the line is so small because they think Morris is gonna throw for 5tds?

 

[zone3cane]

I'm telling you, the oddsmakers and big bettors have written off Morris.

Easy money (unless they are right, which I don't believe)

lol yeah they've written Morris "off" 3 games into the season and after he threw 2 TDs against Florida?????

Well, maybe the line is so small because they think Morris is gonna throw for 5tds?

maybe they've been listening to Al Golden talk up USF all week, like they are legit competition, and thought he was being serious?

 

[usfcane]

Will win by 40. McNeese St dropped 53 on the for heaven's sake.

I'm not saying we won't. But guys much smarter and with more resources than us just bet heavy on USF and they know McNeese St obliterated USF. As a guy who went heavy on the Canes, I'm concerned.

I just canceled my bet for the weekend, 4 pts is crazy, esp crossing those numbers (20.5-16.5). No way is my biggest bet of the year is gona be on a game w that much RLM. Might play second half once I see how the game goes.

 

[SmokeyRone]

I'm telling you, the oddsmakers and big bettors have written off Morris.

Easy money (unless they are right, which I don't believe)

lol yeah they've written Morris "off" 3 games into the season and after he threw 2 TDs against Florida?????

Well, maybe the line is so small because they think Morris is gonna throw for 5tds?

maybe they've been listening to Al Golden talk up USF all week, like they are legit competition, and thought he was being serious?

Or watched Morris against UNC and FSU when he had a supposed injury, but was "ok"?

It's something.

 

[zone3cane]

I'm telling you, the oddsmakers and big bettors have written off Morris.

Easy money (unless they are right, which I don't believe)

lol yeah they've written Morris "off" 3 games into the season and after he threw 2 TDs against Florida?????

Well, maybe the line is so small because they think Morris is gonna throw for 5tds?

maybe they've been listening to Al Golden talk up USF all week, like they are legit competition, and thought he was being serious?

Or watched Morris against UNC and FSU when he had a supposed injury, but was "ok"?

It's something.

Smokey you kinda slow..... if you want to be accurate w/ your hate for Morris, then you should go by his stats against the actual team he is playing this week, USF.

Oh thats right, last year versus USF, Stephen Morris went 21/32 for 413 yards 3 TDs and 0 Ints.

smh

 

[DiegoCane]

Okay so your saying the tactical heavy betters are putting their money on USF which is causing the line to move drastically the opposite way?

Sharp money on the underdog will push the line down. I'm saying that some of the pros dropped serious cheese on USF today. By comparison, a lot of sharp money came in on the Ravens and moved the line about a point down. This line moved about 4 points down today. I haven't checked, but I'm sure that's the biggest movement for the games this weekend. Scary.

This guy know what he is talking about. When the public is hammering one side and the line moves the other way its called reverse line movement and means the sharps are on the other side.

Also, this Morris theory has nothing to do with it. Most Sharps run computer simulations to determine bets, their databases are enormous. Some of these guys probably don't know a single player on either team.

 

[ssvir]

StatFox has the matchup power rating at -16 so the pros are taking the analytical approach to the bet.


Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.

Power Rating
Estimate Edge
MIAMI -16
S FLORIDA

 

[zone3cane]

look I dont consider myself a "square" better b/c i dont bet for fun.

i'm not a "Sharp" money better either..... But i, like "sharp money" betters tend to think i do a good job researching before i make bets.

Sometimes bets are about trusting whats staring right in front of you...... its always safer to pull out of a bet regardless but someone would have to be foolish to put money on USF in this game.

A lot of times even if a lot of money is going to one side the line will move to trick you into panicing like a lot of ppl are doing right now.....

i've done it before, not trust my instincts and the things i look for during the week, and ended up ****ed off when the team i knew was going to cover did but i backed out at the last minute b/c of the infamous late line movement trick.

I just put in my bet and bet double the amount i was going to originally bet b/c a (-16.5) spread is that much sweeter but like i said no bet is full proof but i'm still going w/ the squad on this one HARD.

 

[Biscuits]

I teased it down to 16. 250 to win 208. Should double it up.

 

[ssvir]

Miami v USF Power Rating -16 Actual Spread -17.5
OK State v West VA Power Rating -21 Actual Spread -19
USCe v UCF Power Rating -4 Actual Spread -7
UVA v Pitt Power Rating -6 Actual Spread -5
LSU v GA Power Rating -1 Actual Spread -3
Bama v Ole Miss Power Rating -17 Actual Spread -14.5
TAMU v Arky Power Rating -13 Actual Spread -14.5

 

[TheU1984]

Imma start rolling with dycane and ssv. These fellas seem legit. Y'all on that sharp? Whats a sharp drop? 10k - 50k?

 

[zone3cane]

Da fug is happening with this line. -20 earlier in the day.

this, the $$ is moving

4 points in a day smells rotten

All the money is moving towards Miami..... you all are seeing it the wrong way.

Vegas wants to win big regardless if the favorite or the underdog covers..... If all the money is moving to one side they will try to **** with the lines to get people to jump ship and put it on the other.... in this case USF.

No pick is 100% but i wouldnt fall for it..... i'm still all in on Miami covering BIG.

You're not... a smart person.

says the person that thinks Miami is "reallY" 1-0.... lol hilarious.

My point is still valid.... Vegas is trying to get everyone to panic by the moving the lines. It happens all the time, they want betters to move over to USF on this game, simple as that.

Sharp money or not, I would bet a majority of the sharp money is on Miami.

 

[RepTheGables]

But would you put sharp money on the majority of sharp money being for Miami?