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How good can Miami's offense be in '24? A statistical look at our recent additions

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Memnon said:
If it takes 4 years just to win 10 games, what exactly is being "sustained"?

Why should the expectations be so low for a Coach that's supposedly one of the best in the country? How does that even make sense?
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He's a middle of the road coach that's elite at acquiring talent. The coaching staff as a whole is good enough to win at a high level. Gene Chizik and Ed Orgeron won national championships, so it shouldn't be a lot to ask Mario to win an ACC championship and get into an expanded playoff with arguably the best Miami roster in 20 years.
 
Rellyrell said:
Allow me to refresh ur memory, OK?

-During Manny’s stay, in 2021 we went 7-5; in 3 of those 5 losses, we lost by 3 points or less. The shout from the mountain top was if we had a competent coach, this team is easily a contender for the ACC. So what did Miami do? It paid top 15 $$ to bring over a guy who was supposed to be just that, a company HC.

-In 2022, although I preached patience, the theory was Mario would take over that 7-5 team w/ a few key players missing, and go 8-9 wins in yr 1. I mean, it was reasonable being that, that’s what he did at OU in 2019 after taking over a 7-6 team. He was praised for assembling, on paper, one of the best coaching staffs in CFB. The result? 5-7 w/ several embarrassing, historic losses. OK, the excuse was the staff cohesion, Gattis, etc. Back to the drawing board.

-In 2023, the staff was revamped, & the team played better, although had a lot of head scratching moments. Even though the team went 7-6, 4 of those 6 losses were 7 points or less. Excluding the GT blunder, it was said this team was a competent QB away from being 10 wins. The 6 losses were blamed on the left over players from Manny’s regime.

-Here we r in 2024. The coach excuse from 2021 is gone, the staff excuse for 2022 is gone, & the player personnel excuse from 2023 is gone. So why should anyone expect 9 wins? We picked up a top 3 Portal QB (that replaces TurnoverVD). We picked up a top 3 Portal RB (that replaces fumbling & easy to tackle Chaney). We picked up a top 3 Portal WR (that’s supposed to compliment George & X better than Young).

I’m trying to see why we would be paying top 15 $$ for Randy Shannon results at this point. If we win 9 games, we will be exactly at the same pace of Randy Shannon. And no, that’s not sustainable.
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Agreed with all of the above… now or never. Now means 10+ wins and ACC Title.
 
You guys make me laugh with your circular arguments. It’s all good though as I’ve said I too have high expectations. I just find the “no excuses” comment silly as though Mario can never get it done if he can’t get to the playoffs this season. That is flat out wrong IMO.
 
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htownkidd said:
Oh brother. This will be one to save.
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I'm here for the receipts. Good for you guys that you positioned the argument to be right no matter what.

1. We don't make the playoffs -- Mario is a great recruiter but a terrible game day coach who can't win at a national level.
2. We make the playoffs -- See, I said that with that talent (that Mario recruited), even a terrible game day coach can win big
 
Rellyrell said:
In hindsight? Dude, I just laid out all the reasons & excuses used. There r no more excuses. Staff changed, players changed. It’s like u’re trying to build in a reason, just in case, we don’t take the next step forward.


With this schedule, with this personnel, & w/ the coach Mario is supposed to be, there are no excuses not to win 10+ this season. I’m not talking CFP, I’m talking 10+, which could be 9 in the regular season + bowl victory. U’re bringing up 2022, when u’re totally neglecting what I said about 2023.

At what point r u going to hold the HC accountable? 2021, it was Manny, in 2022 it was Gattis & staff, & in 2023 it was TVD + Manny’s players; enough. Get it done.
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IMO 10 including a bowl win isn't good enough.

10-2 in the regular season is the only thing here that will make me feel like this particular staff can make serious waves in the future.

FSU went 9-3 in the regular season in Norvell's 3rd year. This is Mario's 3rd year. Does anyone not think Miami's 2024 roster is better than FSU's 2022 roster? I sure as **** do. So win 10, or it's a failure. Bar none.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
IMO 10 including a bowl win isn't good enough.

10-2 in the regular season is the only thing here that will make me feel like this particular staff can make serious waves in the future.

FSU went 9-3 in the regular season in Norvell's 3rd year. This is Mario's 3rd year. Does anyone not think Miami's 2024 roster is better than FSU's 2022 roster? I sure as **** do. So win 10, or it's a failure. Bar none.
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I’m just trying to be semi reasonable, but I agree. I just didn’t wanna be the one who said it, so thank u. Lol
 
grover said:
You guys make me laugh with your circular arguments. It’s all good though as I’ve said I too have high expectations. I just find the “no excuses” comment silly as though Mario can never get it done if he can’t get to the playoffs this season. That is flat out wrong IMO.
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So what would the excuses be?

And if he doesn't get it done this year, then when? 2029?
 
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@grover on one hand you're saying that you have high expectations, but on the other hand you're saying that there could also be excuses to justify if those expectations aren't met...

So why do you have high expectations if you already have pre-built in excuses?

That's why you're getting so many people responding to your comments, because it's not making a whole lot of sense.

That's like saying, "I know for a fact I'm going to hit lottery, bet the house on it!.."
"But just in case I don't, don't actually bet the house please.."
 
Memnon said:
@grover on one hand you're saying that you have high expectations, but on the other hand you're saying that there could also be excuses to justify if those expectations aren't met...

So why do you have high expectations if you already have pre-built in excuses?

That's why you're getting so many people responding to your comments, because it's not making a whole lot of sense.

That's like saying, "I know for a fact I'm going to hit lottery, bet the house on it!.."
"But just in case I don't, don't actually bet the house please.."
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Almost like he is "positioned to be right no matter what".
 
My experience has been that when you put all the building blocks in place for success you have the highest probability for a successful outcome. But timing isn’t an exact science. And external factors outside of your control have their say.

I know we’ll be much better than last year because Mario has built a much better team than last year’s one and night vs day better than 2022’s. I expect we’ll be very good. That doesn’t mean we’ll make the playoffs. And if we don’t, it doesn’t mean Mario is a failure. Just look at the building blocks.
 
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Memnon said:
So what would the excuses be?

And if he doesn't get it done this year, then when? 2029?
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This is still a young team. We've had two top 10 classes in a row, which is good, but that means the most talented players on this team are sophomores and freshman.

Also, they added a lot of key pieces to this team (Ward, Martinez...), but there are still some holes and we're lying if we say there aren't. What happens if we have injuries to Ward or Martinez? Do we have the depth?

Then even with the starters, there's questions at C, LG, LB, DT, and most of all in the secondary.

IMO this team has a shot to make the playoffs but it's not like it's a sure thing based on the roster. Most of the best players are young and there are still holes that need another cycle or even two to plug.

Vegas has us at 9 to 9.5 wins, and I think that's pretty fair.
 
For the first time in a while, Miami will have a more talented team than anyone on their schedule. This includes any possible ACC championship game opponent. It’s not like in previous years when we were like “just win the coastal and maybe Clemson’s quarterback will get hurt”. We are more talented than them, FSU, Louisville, anyone in the conference. And the teams that are close to us have a significant disadvantage at the most important position, quarterback.

If Mario doesn’t win the conference and get a playoff bid with this team, what the **** is it going to take to do so? Do we need a top 5 roster to win the trash ACC? I mean right now, I’d say we’re knocking on the top 10. If you don’t agree name 11 better rosters. After about 7, it gets really hard to differentiate the next group.

If it takes a top 5 roster just to win the conference what’s it going to take to win a playoff game? The 2001 team?

If they don’t win the conference and make the playoffs this year (barring terrible unfortunate circumstances ) then it’s over. We’re Texas A&M and Mario is Jimbo. A guy who was given unlimited funds to buy a team and never won ****. I’m tired of off season championships. You don’t get trophies for recruiting. Win games. And conferences and championships. That’s what you get trophies for.
 
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RightSaidFred said:
This is still a young team. We've had two top 10 classes in a row, which is good, but that means the most talented players on this team are sophomores and freshman.

Also, they added a lot of key pieces to this team (Ward, Martinez...), but there are still some holes and we're lying if we say there aren't. What happens if we have injuries to Ward or Martinez? Do we have the depth?

Then even with the starters, there's questions at C, LG, LB, DT, and most of all in the secondary.

IMO this team has a shot to make the playoffs but it's not like it's a sure thing based on the roster. Most of the best players are young and there are still holes that need another cycle or even two to plug.

Vegas has us at 9 to 9.5 wins, and I think that's pretty fair.
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Starting QB - Ward (Sr.)
Starting RB - Martinez (Jr.)
Starting C - Carpenter (RS - Sr.)
Starting RG - Cooper (Jr.)
Starting RT - Samson (RS - Fr.) or Bell (Jr.)
Starting LG - Rivers (RS - Jr.)
Starting LT - Mauigoa (So.)
Starting TE - McCormick (RS/RS - Sr.) or Arroyo (RS - Jr.)
Starting WRX - Brown (5th yr Jr.) or Horton (RS-So.)
Starting WRY - Restrepo (RS - Sr.)
Starting WRZ - George (Sr.)

Offense: 81% or 90% (pending on the RT position) are upper class men

Starting DE - Messidor (RS - Sr.)
Starting DE - Bain (So.)
Starting NT - Clark (RS - Sr.)
Starting DT - Barrow (Sr.)
Starting MLB - Mauigoa (Sr.)
Starting WLB - Bissainthe (RS. So.)
Starting CB - Hill (Jr.) or Brown (So.)
Starting CB - Porter (RS. Sr.)
Starting SS - Harris (RS So.) or Williams (RS So.)
Starting FS - Balom (RS - Jr.) or Taylor (RS Jr.)
Starting NB - Powell (RS - Sr.)

Defense: 81% or 90% (pending on the starting CB) are upper class men

Starting Punter - Joyce (So.)*
Starting Kicker - Borreagles (Sr.)
Place Holder - Joyce (So)*

*Sophomore from Australia, currently 23 yrs old

Here’s my issue w/ ur depth proposition:

QB Room - Who recruited Poffenger from the portal? Who recruited Williams & Judd as QB1’s, only, via the 2023 & 2024 classes?

OL - You guys have told us not to worry about the OL, b/c anything & anyone Mario or Alex want, to trust their eval, so I don’t wanna hear this. The C was recruited via the portal, and this entire OL group, w/ the exception of Ryan Rodriguez & Jalen Rivers were handpicked, & this includes transfers Bell, & Cristobal.

DT - We’ve had ample opportunity to bring in DTs. Per CIS, we loved Cook, & the once upon a time Gore (& b4 anyone say anything, the receipts r plastered over CIS).

LB - I think u just threw this one in, b/c I’m not sure where the ? marks r.

At the end of the day u’re post is full of excuses & goal post movement that may have “some” merit, but it’s more baseless than anything. I’m sick of the narratives.
 
I just don’t see any holes if George keeps his head on straight. Add to that the addition of Arroyo and speed at RB. Given our QB and schedule the offense should easily be top 15
 
grover said:
My experience has been that when you put all the building blocks in place for success you have the highest probability for a successful outcome. But timing isn’t an exact science. And external factors outside of your control have their say.

I know we’ll be much better than last year because Mario has built a much better team than last year’s one and night vs day better than 2022’s. I expect we’ll be very good. That doesn’t mean we’ll make the playoffs. And if we don’t, it doesn’t mean Mario is a failure. Just look at the building blocks.
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