How good can Miami's offense be in '24? A statistical look at our recent additions

[No_Fly_Zone]

I too think we should at least be in the ACCCG and get a playoff bid.

But I am perplexed by the "no excuses for Mario" comment. Do you think Coker, Radio, Fat AG, Manny or even Richt would have landed two back-to-back Top 10 classes plus the portal guys he's brought in to put us in a position to get to the playoffs this season? .

The "no excuses" comment makes Mario the reason for failure when the reason we are even having this discussion is he achieved what no one else has been able to achieve from a roster perspective in 2 decades. What should be slurpery is thus transformed into mopery.

This post is perplexing. Wins are all that matters. Recruiting rankings are a means to an end. Period.

Richt got us to our first ACCCG and 10 wins with Malik Rosier at QB in Year 2. If Mario can't get us to our second ACCCG and 10 wins with Cam Ward at QB in Year 3...

Yeah, no ******* excuses.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Going 3 and out consistently is a recipe for disaster no matter how fast or slow you go.

What if I told you, that by using a faster tempo, you actually decreased your chances of going three and out?

There is no offensive advantage to going slow unless you already have a comfortable lead and just want to milk the clock.

Different issues my friend.

IF a team has an offense, like our Hurricanes of far to long for example, who can't consistently sustain drives and routinely go 3-n-out, going faster tempo is much worse than going slower tempo.

That is different than a team with a functioning offense than can actually execute plays successfully.

 

[LC_Cane]

Just my opinion... we have the talent at all the skilled positions to give any good back end of a defense huge amounts of problems. Our Oline talent is well above average as a whole unit with question marks at how we hold up at center and left guard. Qb needs and RB is a well known plus with our starters and when fletcher is healthy oh boy watchout. My main concern is are we getting Dawson vs Texas A&M or Georgia Tech per say. Only thing holding us back this year will be the play calling and some creativity in the red zone when it matters against equal competition. Im hoping he was just handcuffed with TVDs struggles. We shall see here. Go Canes!

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Top 20 in scoring offense and yards per play or I eat a Duluth steel toed boot on IG live.

 

[grover]

This post is perplexing. Wins are all that matters. Recruiting rankings are a means to an end. Period.

Richt got us to our first ACCCG and 10 wins with Malik Rosier at QB in Year 2. If Mario can't get us to our second ACCCG and 10 wins with Cam Ward at QB in Year 3...

Yeah, no ******* excuses.

Richt didn't have the talent to sustain it, and he didn't have the recruiting acumen to continue to replenish that talent. Mario has built a sustainable model. All he needs is to win, which he will do this coming season. But I don't think there's "no excuse" if he doesn't win the ACCCG and get to the playoffs.

 

[Memnon]

Richt didn't have the talent to sustain it, and he didn't have the recruiting acumen to continue to replenish that talent. Mario has built a sustainable model. All he needs is to win, which he will do this coming season. But I don't think there's "no excuse" if he doesn't win the ACCCG and get to the playoffs.

So what exactly would the excuse be?

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

Richt didn't have the talent to sustain it, and he didn't have the recruiting acumen to continue to replenish that talent. Mario has built a sustainable model. All he needs is to win, which he will do this coming season. But I don't think there's "no excuse" if he doesn't win the ACCCG and get to the playoffs.

Two questions, and one quote.

The questions: How is it that in one breath you confidently proclaim, "All he needs to do is win, which he will do this coming season," but in the next state there won't be "no excuse" if he doesn't win? How can you simultaneously be so confident he's going to meet those expectations, while also being so open to the notion he may not (and it may somehow be excused)?

The quote: "Winning isn't everything; it's the only thing." -Red Sanders. You can talk about "sustainable models" all you want. Until that model actually produces wins, the only thing being sustained is mediocrity.

 

[grover]

Two questions, and one quote.

The questions: How is it that in one breath you confidently proclaim, "All he needs to do is win, which he will do this coming season," but in the next state there won't be "no excuse" if he doesn't win? How can you simultaneously be so confident he's going to meet those expectations, while also being so open to the notion he may not (and it may somehow be excused)?

The quote: "Winning isn't everything; it's the only thing." -Red Sanders. You can talk about "sustainable models" all you want. Until that model actually produces wins, the only thing being sustained is mediocrity.

We've had massive expectation inflation during this offseason for the 2024 season, from 9 wins, to 10 wins, to ACC Champion and Playoff contender.

9 wins has always been acceptable to me, even though I do think we get to 10 wins and we'll make the playoffs. In 2023, there were 14 10-win P5 teams. 12 of them made it. Louisville (10-3) and Iowa (10-3) did not. So it's possible if we win 10 games but lose the ACCCG, we won't make the playoffs. I would not consider that a "no excuses" situation. Feel free to disagree.

Mario gets 9 wins or better, then he once again lands a top 10 class and continues to receive NIL support. IMO, that's sustainable and excusable.

 

[Rellyrell]

We've had massive expectation inflation during this offseason for the 2024 season, from 9 wins, to 10 wins, to ACC Champion and Playoff contender.

9 wins has always been acceptable to me, even though I do think we get to 10 wins and we'll make the playoffs. In 2023, there were 14 10-win P5 teams. 12 of them made it. Louisville (10-3) and Iowa (10-3) did not. So it's possible if we win 10 games but lose the ACCCG, we won't make the playoffs. I would not consider that a "no excuses" situation. Feel free to disagree.

Mario gets 9 wins or better, then he once again lands a top 10 class and continues to receive NIL support. IMO, that's sustainable and excusable.

Allow me to refresh ur memory, OK?

-During Manny’s stay, in 2021 we went 7-5; in 3 of those 5 losses, we lost by 3 points or less. The shout from the mountain top was if we had a competent coach, this team is easily a contender for the ACC. So what did Miami do? It paid top 15 $$ to bring over a guy who was supposed to be just that, a company HC.

-In 2022, although I preached patience, the theory was Mario would take over that 7-5 team w/ a few key players missing, and go 8-9 wins in yr 1. I mean, it was reasonable being that, that’s what he did at OU in 2019 after taking over a 7-6 team. He was praised for assembling, on paper, one of the best coaching staffs in CFB. The result? 5-7 w/ several embarrassing, historic losses. OK, the excuse was the staff cohesion, Gattis, etc. Back to the drawing board.

-In 2023, the staff was revamped, & the team played better, although had a lot of head scratching moments. Even though the team went 7-6, 4 of those 6 losses were 7 points or less. Excluding the GT blunder, it was said this team was a competent QB away from being 10 wins. The 6 losses were blamed on the left over players from Manny’s regime.

-Here we r in 2024. The coach excuse from 2021 is gone, the staff excuse for 2022 is gone, & the player personnel excuse from 2023 is gone. So why should anyone expect 9 wins? We picked up a top 3 Portal QB (that replaces TurnoverVD). We picked up a top 3 Portal RB (that replaces fumbling & easy to tackle Chaney). We picked up a top 3 Portal WR (that’s supposed to compliment George & X better than Young).

I’m trying to see why we would be paying top 15 $$ for Randy Shannon results at this point. If we win 9 games, we will be exactly at the same pace of Randy Shannon. And no, that’s not sustainable.

 

[E1k]

Allow me to refresh ur memory, OK?

-During Manny’s stay, in 2021 we went 7-5; in 3 of those 5 losses, we lost by 3 points or less. The shout from the mountain top was if we had a competent coach, this team is easily a contender for the ACC. So what did Miami do? It paid top 15 $$ to bring over a guy who was supposed to be just that, a company HC.

-In 2022, although I preached patience, the theory was Mario would take over that 7-5 team w/ a few key players missing, and go 8-9 wins in yr 1. I mean, it was reasonable being that, that’s what he did at OU in 2019 after taking over a 7-6 team. He was praised for assembling, on paper, one of the best coaching staffs in CFB. The result? 5-7 w/ several embarrassing, historic losses. OK, the excuse was the staff cohesion, Gattis, etc. Back to the drawing board.

-In 2023, the staff was revamped, & the team played better, although had a lot of head scratching moments. Even though the team went 7-6, 4 of those 6 losses were 7 points or less. Excluding the GT blunder, it was said this team was a competent QB away from being 10 wins. The 6 losses were blamed on the left over players from Manny’s regime.

-Here we r in 2024. The coach excuse from 2021 is gone, the staff excuse for 2022 is gone, & the player personnel excuse from 2023 is gone. So why should anyone expect 9 wins? We picked up a top 3 Portal QB (that replaces TurnoverVD). We picked up a top 3 Portal RB (that replaces fumbling & easy to tackle Chaney). We picked up a top 3 Portal WR (that’s supposed to compliment George & X better than Young).

I’m trying to see why we would be paying top 15 $$ for Randy Shannon results at this point. If we win 9 games, we will be exactly at the same pace of Randy Shannon. And no, that’s not sustainable.

History gets rewritten here so much man lol… im glad someone else said this. And like u mentioned 3 of the 5 were 3 points or less, dont forget that was with a qb who was taking his first snaps in college. And the other two losses were against bama who played for the natty, and Michigan st who finished top10 and even that game was competitive before king got hurt

Our expectations with mario should be way higher, we need to see him maximize these rosters because if he cant then thats basically telling us what our ceiling is under him. If he’s underachieving now then it will only continue when we start getting even better talent

 

[DTP]

Different issues my friend.

IF a team has an offense, like our Hurricanes of far to long for example, who can't consistently sustain drives and routinely go 3-n-out, going faster tempo is much worse than going slower tempo.

That is different than a team with a functioning offense than can actually execute plays successfully.

What I’m saying is that teams operate at a faster tempo because it’s easier for them to execute that way.

How many times over the years did you see a team switch to a two minute offense and all of the sudden they can move the ball without problems. The TV announcers would usually say something like “wow, they should have been running the two minute offense the whole time”. That’s why teams use tempo.

Now if your team is total garbage and you have no chance against your opponent, then by all means, go slow and shorten the game as much as you can. Maybe you’ll only lose by 30 instead of 40. Now if you’re not at a severe talent disadvantage and you’re trying to win instead of just keeping the score closer, you should be using any advantage you can get. Especially one that makes your offense more efficient and harder to defend.

 

[grover]

Allow me to refresh ur memory, OK?

-During Manny’s stay, in 2021 we went 7-5; in 3 of those 5 losses, we lost by 3 points or less. The shout from the mountain top was if we had a competent coach, this team is easily a contender for the ACC. So what did Miami do? It paid top 15 $$ to bring over a guy who was supposed to be just that, a company HC.

-In 2022, although I preached patience, the theory was Mario would take over that 7-5 team w/ a few key players missing, and go 8-9 wins in yr 1. I mean, it was reasonable being that, that’s what he did at OU in 2019 after taking over a 7-6 team. He was praised for assembling, on paper, one of the best coaching staffs in CFB. The result? 5-7 w/ several embarrassing, historic losses. OK, the excuse was the staff cohesion, Gattis, etc. Back to the drawing board.

-In 2023, the staff was revamped, & the team played better, although had a lot of head scratching moments. Even though the team went 7-6, 4 of those 6 losses were 7 points or less. Excluding the GT blunder, it was said this team was a competent QB away from being 10 wins. The 6 losses were blamed on the left over players from Manny’s regime.

-Here we r in 2024. The coach excuse from 2021 is gone, the staff excuse for 2022 is gone, & the player personnel excuse from 2023 is gone. So why should anyone expect 9 wins? We picked up a top 3 Portal QB (that replaces TurnoverVD). We picked up a top 3 Portal RB (that replaces fumbling & easy to tackle Chaney). We picked up a top 3 Portal WR (that’s supposed to compliment George & X better than Young).

I’m trying to see why we would be paying top 15 $$ for Randy Shannon results at this point. If we win 9 games, we will be exactly at the same pace of Randy Shannon. And no, that’s not sustainable.

In hindsight can you really say that 2022 team was a 9/10 win team with the dogshyt talent we had on it? The coaches didn’t work either. So he rewrote the script.

Not going to argue with you because I understand where you’re coming from I just disagree. If we’re in the same boat a year from now I’d agree but we won’t be so time will resolve this.

 

[88]

It always feels like personal in the offseason, coaching when the bullets fly. There’s proven players all over the offense, it’s all on Dawson.

 

[LuCane]

In hindsight can you really say that 2022 team was a 9/10 win team with the dogshyt talent we had on it? The coaches didn’t work either. So he rewrote the script.

Not going to argue with you because I understand where you’re coming from I just disagree. If we’re in the same boat a year from now I’d agree but we won’t be so time will resolve this.

9 wins would have been acceptable… last year.

9 wins in the context of our current schedule and assuming nothing weird happens (especially health wise) means something bad happened, again.

I don’t think it can be overstated what it means to have the personnel we have on offense, specifically as it relates to our opponents. I’m sure we’ll get into that as the offseason unfolds, but some of our opponents are really weak (on paper).

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

We've had massive expectation inflation during this offseason for the 2024 season, from 9 wins, to 10 wins, to ACC Champion and Playoff contender.

9 wins has always been acceptable to me, even though I do think we get to 10 wins and we'll make the playoffs. In 2023, there were 14 10-win P5 teams. 12 of them made it. Louisville (10-3) and Iowa (10-3) did not. So it's possible if we win 10 games but lose the ACCCG, we won't make the playoffs. I would not consider that a "no excuses" situation. Feel free to disagree.

Mario gets 9 wins or better, then he once again lands a top 10 class and continues to receive NIL support. IMO, that's sustainable and excusable.

If Mario wins fewer than 10 games with this roster, in year 3, after back-to-back Top 10 HS classes and now a top 10ish portal class, and against this schedule...

Then 9 wins isn't sustainable. It's the ceiling.

 

[TRick72]

Sounds legit

View attachment 289443

 

[Memnon]

If it takes 4 years just to win 10 games, what exactly is being "sustained"?

Why should the expectations be so low for a Coach that's supposedly one of the best in the country? How does that even make sense?

 

[TRick72]

This post is perplexing. Wins are all that matters. Recruiting rankings are a means to an end. Period.

Richt got us to our first ACCCG and 10 wins with Malik Rosier at QB in Year 2. If Mario can't get us to our second ACCCG and 10 wins with Cam Ward at QB in Year 3...

Yeah, no ******* excuses.

Listen you Neanderthal, Chefs are judged on the quality of ingredients they procure not actually on the meal they prepare

 

[Rellyrell]

In hindsight can you really say that 2022 team was a 9/10 win team with the dogshyt talent we had on it? The coaches didn’t work either. So he rewrote the script.

Not going to argue with you because I understand where you’re coming from I just disagree. If we’re in the same boat a year from now I’d agree but we won’t be so time will resolve this.

In hindsight? Dude, I just laid out all the reasons & excuses used. There r no more excuses. Staff changed, players changed. It’s like u’re trying to build in a reason, just in case, we don’t take the next step forward.


With this schedule, with this personnel, & w/ the coach Mario is supposed to be, there are no excuses not to win 10+ this season. I’m not talking CFP, I’m talking 10+, which could be 9 in the regular season + bowl victory. U’re bringing up 2022, when u’re totally neglecting what I said about 2023.

At what point r u going to hold the HC accountable? 2021, it was Manny, in 2022 it was Gattis & staff, & in 2023 it was TVD + Manny’s players; enough. Get it done.

 

[EudocimusAlbus]

Does "Patience" apply here?