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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Rellyrell said:
I hate to be that guy, but:

UCF (2021): 9-4
UCF (2020): 6-4
UCF (2019): 10-3
UCF (2018): 12-1
UCF (2017): 13-0
Total: 50-12
- 2 conference titles
- 2 NY6 bowl appearances (1-1)
- 3-2 in bowl games
- 2-1 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

Compared to ACC:
NCST (2021): 9-3
NCST (2020): 8-4
NCST (2019): 4-8
NCST (2018): 9-4
NCST (2017): 9-4
Total: 39-23
- 0 conference titles
- 0 NY6 bowl appearances
- 1-2 in bowl games
- 1-2 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

WF (2021): 11-3
WF (2020): 4-5
WF (2019): 8-5
WF (2018): 7-6
WF (2017): 8-5
Total: 38-23
- 0 conference titles
- 0 NY6 bowl appearances
- 3-2 in bowl games
- 2-2 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

Miami (2021): 7-5
Miami (2020): 8-3
Miami (2019): 6-7
Miami (2018): 7-6
Miami (2017): 10-3
Total: 38-24
- 0 conference titles
- 1 NY6 bowl appearance (0-1)
- 0-4 in bowl games
- 0-3 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

Pitt (2021): 11-3
Pitt (2020): 6-5
Pitt (2019): 8-5
Pitt (2018): 7-7
Pitt (2017): 5-7
Total: 37-27
- 1 conference title
- 1 NY6 bowl appearance (0-1)
- 1-2 in bowl games
- 0-2 on bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

UVA (2021): 6-6
UVA (2020): 5-5
UVA (2019): 9-5
UVA (2018): 8-5
UVA (2017): 6-7
Total: 34-28
- 0 conference titles
- 1 NY6 bowl appearance (0-1)
- 1-2 in bowl games
- 1-1 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

UNC (2021): 6-7
UNC (2020): 8-4
UNC (2019): 7-6
UNC (2018): 2-9
UNC (2017): 3-9
Total: 26-25
- 0 conference titles
- 1 NY6 bowl appearance (0-1)
- 1-2 in bowl games
- 0-2 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

UL (2021): 6-7
UL (2020): 4-7
UL (2019): 8-5
UL (2018): 2-10
UL (2017): 8-5
Total: 28-34
- 0 conference titles
- 0 NY6 bowl appearances
- 1-2 in bowl games
- 1-1 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

FSU (2021): 5-7
FSU (2020): 3-6
FSU (2019): 6-7
FSU (2018): 5-7
FSU (2017): 7-6
Total: 26-33
- 0 conference titles
- 0 NY6 bowl appearances
- 1-1 in bowl games
- 0-1 in bowl match ups vs. P5 teams

Listen, I know many of us live in this glass house, and I’m not sure wtf FPI is or does, but clearly @ST26 is correct; UCF has out performed every ACC team not named Clemson over the past 5 yrs & it’s not even close in every metrics. Even when facing P5 teams in bowl games, they have a better record than the actual P5 teams in The Conference.

To add salt to the wound, during this span:
FSU Final AP Top 25 rankings: 0
UL Final AP Top 25 rankings: 0
UNC Final AP Top 25 rankings: 1
UVA Final AP Top 25 rankings: 1
Pitt Final AP Top 25 rankings: 1
WF Final AP Top 25 rankings: 1
NCST Final AP Top 25 rankings: 2

UCF Final AP Top 25 rankings: 3

🤷🏾‍♂️
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Bro, you're comparing g5 conference records to p5 conference records. We all know the acc sucks but it's a whole different ballgame. They had a great offense and a couple really good qbs that made them really good for a minute. But lets be real, they have a losing record against the ****** acc since 2010. Since then they've beaten BC, GT, and Pitt.. two bottom dwellers and Pitt. Pitt returned the favor while ucf was busy claiming god status. cmon man, there's a reason they got ignored even after going 12-0 two years in a row. They outperformed 99.9% of ncaa teams RECORD wise but nobody cared. Record doesn't mean **** when you're playing nobodies week in week out.
 
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canecane232323 said:
"An exit fee reportedly stands at $120 million according to ESPN’s Andrea Adelson. "

We gone
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I have seen this (or similar) thrown out there a lot, but also have seen that others have claimed there is no exit fee and that there is no getting TV rights back until 2036, the league folds or a new deal is made. I really hope the ~$120M fee reports are accurate as although that is definitely a big number, it becomes manageable even if Miami was only making ~$30M extra a year in one of the other conferences.
 
Shogungts said:
I have seen this (or similar) thrown out there a lot, but also have seen that others have claimed there is no exit fee and that there is no getting TV rights back until 2036, the league folds or a new deal is made. I really hope the ~$120M fee reports are accurate as although that is definitely a big number, it becomes manageable even if Miami was only making ~$30M extra a year in one of the other conferences.
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The difference per year will be way more than $30M.
 
filmcane said:
Cribby said we are headed to the SEC, but for giggles, let me tease this out as a realistic option.

If we gained ND, added a few others and our money was similar to the money the B2 are getting, AND we don't lose any of our marquee teams, I'd be fine with it. Don't think it'll shake out that way, but I'd be fine with that.
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If someone wanted to give me $200k for my old truck, I'd be fine with that too.

But in the scenario you proposed, no one would pay anywhere near the $100M~ per school that P2 are going to get. Adding more crappy teams to the ACC that the P2 don't want at best doesn't increase the per team payout, and maybe just dilutes it. Keep in mind that every team you add means you have to take a smaller slice of the overall pie.

But moving forward to the part that could change things, even if ND is worth $100M each year (the # that is being reported they want to stay indy and will be hard to get is $75M), its not completely incremental because, again, it's one more slice that the pie has to be shared with.

So let's say, miraculously, that the ACC could get a new contract right now, and that generously, the ACC teams got their payout up from $36M~ to $50M per team, and the ACC added ND and a TBD school to take us up to 16. The value of the 15 non-ND schools at $50M is $750M per year. Adding ND and their $100M valuation boosts the pot to $850M per year. But you now split that new pot 16 ways. The new payout for each of the 16 schools would only be $53.13M, almost $47M behind each P2 school.

Also, of course ND isn't going to take $53M to be in a conference when they can get $100M (in this scenario) to stay independent, which is what they prefer anyway, so never, ever happening. P2 or die.
 
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MovingZen said:
Bro, you're comparing g5 conference records to p5 conference records. We all know the acc sucks but it's a whole different ballgame. They had a great offense and a couple really good qbs that made them really good for a minute. But lets be real, they have a losing record against the ****** acc since 2010. Since then they've beaten BC, GT, and Pitt.. two bottom dwellers and Pitt. Pitt returned the favor while ucf was busy claiming god status. cmon man, there's a reason they got ignored even after going 12-0 two years in a row. They outperformed 99.9% of ncaa teams RECORD wise but nobody cared. Record doesn't mean **** when you're playing nobodies week in week out.
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Hol’ up; I’m flabbergastedly confused right now. Is UCF a P5 program playing a G5 schedule or is UCF a G5 playing a G5 schedule? Could it not be argued the ACC Football is a conference chopped full of nobodies in the P5 world, my brother? I mean, ****, how many threads do we have going on CIS about Miami winning the Coastal due to our schedule & the teams in this conference?

Let’s backtrack real quick, b/c lord knows I hate Rabbit Holes; The argument was UCF going to the B12 don’t mean chit b/c since 2017, they’ve slid. Well that argument, while partially true since UCF haven’t been undefeated since 2017, still shows a high performing G5 program. A FPI theory was thrown in to validate said statement. OK again, I’m not sure what FPI is or what their matrix is, b/c at the end of the day, UCF outperformed all teams in The ACC not named Clemson on a lbs for lbs level.

Cincy, UCF, Houston, & BYU have all been quality G5/Independent members for the past few yrs. Now, am I saying that they’ll continue this trend moving up to the P5 level? No, but I also have to look at the playing field:

U’re counter argument was don’t look at the record, they’re playing a bunch of nobodies. OK, well my counter would be is UCF decisively out recruiting every team in their conference like we have been doing (outside of Clemson & FSU for a 5 yr stretch), since 2004? Now, back to the G5’s making this move: I expect struggle early on b/c they’ll have a roster full of 2-3 star guys facing consistent opponents of teams full of 3-5 star guys. If they can get into the recruiting sector of the schedule, then of course they can do well.

I just feel if UCF was named CCSU w/ it’s same production, no one here would say chit. But b/c of the ire they draw in the neighborhood, they’ve slowly crept into the FL rivalry neighborhood.
 
Bingo Bunny said:
Did you see the part where I said had he tried to make that argument a year or two ago, it might have been better?

They've been on a steady decline since Scott Frost. Picking a time when many teams were down while they were up does not mean they're a great team.
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13-0
12-1
10-3
6-4
9-4

So based upon 2020 to now 2021, is that a decline or a rise? Lol
 
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Rellyrell said:
I’m asking, what is FPI & it’s source? Is this an subjective analytics?
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The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

www.espn.com

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
Rellyrell said:
Hol’ up; I’m flabbergastedly confused right now. Is UCF a P5 program playing a G5 schedule or is UCF a G5 playing a G5 schedule? Could it not be argued the ACC Football is a conference chopped full of nobodies in the P5 world, my brother? I mean, ****, how many threads do we have going on CIS about Miami winning the Coastal due to our schedule & the teams in this conference?

Let’s backtrack real quick, b/c lord knows I hate Rabbit Holes; The argument was UCF going to the B12 don’t mean chit b/c since 2017, they’ve slid. Well that argument, while partially true since UCF haven’t been undefeated since 2017, still shows a high performing G5 program. A FPI theory was thrown in to validate said statement. OK again, I’m not sure what FPI is or what their matrix is, b/c at the end of the day, UCF outperformed all teams in The ACC not named Clemson on a lbs for lbs level.

Cincy, UCF, Houston, & BYU have all been quality G5/Independent members for the past few yrs. Now, am I saying that they’ll continue this trend moving up to the P5 level? No, but I also have to look at the playing field:

U’re counter argument was don’t look at the record, they’re playing a bunch of nobodies. OK, well my counter would be is UCF decisively out recruiting every team in their conference like we have been doing (outside of Clemson & FSU for a 5 yr stretch), since 2004? Now, back to the G5’s making this move: I expect struggle early on b/c they’ll have a roster full of 2-3 star guys facing consistent opponents of teams full of 3-5 star guys. If they can get into the recruiting sector of the schedule, then of course they can do well.

I just feel if UCF was named CCSU w/ it’s same production, no one here would say chit. But b/c of the ire they draw in the neighborhood, they’ve slowly crept into the FL rivalry neighborhood.
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I might have jumped into an argument I wasn't aware of. If I started arguing some off the wall **** my bad. My understanding was a troll said that ucf was on par with ACC teams outside of clemson and then you gave some metrics to support that claim. To me ucf is not a p5 program, a g5 lb isn't as heavy as a p5 lb. I'm not saying they are a bad team, I'm just saying they aren't lb for lb on par with crappy acc teams. (I might have gone too far because the acc is really bad right now.) The ACC sucks but the teams aren't nobodies. Is a good AAA team on par with a MLB team? Not lb for lb they aren't. They could win some games sure, but they'd spend the majority of their time being beaten by more talented teams with better rosters. With all my blah blah blah being said, I agree with the right attitude and money they might could step it up to p5 and be on par with ACC teams but that's several years from now.

This wouldn't be an argument if the ACC didn't suck so ******* bad right now.
 
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MovingZen said:
I might have jumped into an argument I wasn't aware of. If I started arguing some off the wall **** my bad. My understanding was a troll said that ucf was on par with ACC teams outside of clemson and then you gave some metrics to support that claim. To me ucf is not a p5 program, a g5 lb isn't as heavy as a p5 lb. I'm not saying they are a bad team, I'm just saying they aren't lb for lb on par with crappy acc teams. (I might have gone too far because the acc is really bad right now.) The ACC sucks but the teams aren't nobodies. Is a good AAA team on par with a MLB team? Not lb for lb they aren't. They could win some games sure, but they'd spend the majority of their time being beaten by more talented teams with better rosters. With all my blah blah blah being said, I agree with the right attitude and money they might could step it up to p5 and be on par with ACC teams but that's several years from now.

This wouldn't be an argument if the ACC didn't suck so ******* bad right now.
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Ur last statement is the crux of the premise. Lol. I’m literally lol’ing b/c u’re spot on. I don’t think they were trolling vs. providing evidence as of late that UCF have been better than the bottom feeders of the ACC, including us under that past regime who have struggled mightily against G5 programs in our match ups (not so much under Richt, but fa sho under Diaz).
 
Bingo Bunny said:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

www.espn.com

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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Oh, OK. I promise u I wasn’t being an ***, i really didn’t know. We’ve been so PFF focused (no pun intended) that I didn’t even consider FPI.

Regardless, I think UCF won’t even be on our radar in coming yrs. They’ll never be a “have” at the haves table. We’re reclaiming our spot. Good for them being able to move up the rankings, but it won’t matter chit to us. We’ll be in their backyard still taking their top recruits. Lol
 
Rellyrell said:
Oh, OK. I promise u I wasn’t being an ***, i really didn’t know. We’ve been so PFF focused (no pun intended) that I didn’t even consider FPI.

Regardless, I think UCF won’t even be on our radar in coming yrs. They’ll never be a “have” at the haves table. We’re reclaiming our spot. Good for them being able to move up the rankings, but it won’t matter chit to us. We’ll be in their backyard still taking their top recruits. Lol
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I've never seen you be an *** to anyone. You're one of the nicest on here.
 
Bingo Bunny said:
I've never seen you be an *** to anyone. You're one of the nicest on here.
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Well there’s definitely a couple on my ignore list who pushed me there, lmao. But I try my best to treat those how I want to be treated, even on a platform like this. Appreciate u.

Just a FYI, on subject, but I heard the B12 is really trying to push to position itself as a Big 3, just in case. I’m not sure what the PAC-10 is going to do, but the B12 is making noise in its territory. I’ve talked to multiple ppl that said Utah (b/c of BYU), Arizona, ASU, & Colorado r completely on the radar. UO & U-Dub r weary b/c of loyalty to the PAC-12 as founding members, but I haven’t heard chit what they plan to do to reduce the gap. Truthfully, I’m not sure if they have a plan. That’s what has been discussed on a lot of shows, this passive, wait & see attitude of the PAC-12.
 
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