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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

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Rickd said:
There is quite a bit of speculation on the Warchant Realignment Thread (the one started by Regal 2+ years ago) that FSU is working behind the scenes to get out well in advance of 2030 ... potentially as soon as the 2026 season ... and views the $200M exit fee as what they were looking for ... and have it covered.
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Yes, 2027-2029 imo. Why would SEC sit around and let B1G get the programs they want in 2030 when their media deal is up for renegotiation?
And at only $128M to leave in 2027, $110M to leave in 2028, or $92M to leave in 2029, it's a good deal either way. Texas and OU paid $100M to leave 1 year early. If you pay $110M to leave in 2028 that's 8 years early from ACC GOR.

I think 3 more seasons in ACC is reasonable. Be in a new conference in 2028.
 
Calinative said:
Yes, 2027-2029 imo. Why would SEC sit around and let B1G get the programs they want in 2030 when their media deal is up for renegotiation?
And at only $128M to leave in 2027, $110M to leave in 2028, or $92M to leave in 2029, it's a good deal either way. Texas and OU paid $100M to leave 1 year early. If you pay $110M to leave in 2028 that's 8 years early from ACC GOR.

I think 3 more seasons in ACC is reasonable. Be in a new conference in 2028.
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Is it any wonder that FSU isn't known for its business school?

Who is paying for this?
 
caneingville said:
Based on the fact that the phrase is based on nothing. No one in the conference can leave anytime soon, because no one has an invitation to go anywhere else.
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Gotcha, so waiting until it's dead and is the smart play here. Being reactive is certainly the way Miami operates. You may have a future at the Hecht.
 
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Hold My Beer said:


$165M to leave before the 2025 football season (logistically impossible)
$147M to leave before the 2026 football season (still a shorter on-boarding than SEC and B1G would like)
$129M to leave before the 2027 football season (definitely workable)
$111M to leave before the 2028 football season
$93M to leave before the 2029 football season
$75M to leave before the 2030 football season

Coin flip between July 1, 2027 and July 1, 2028.

Much of the exit fee can be regrouped via increased ticket sales, donations and auxiliary income from moving up to the big leagues

There's also a steep cost in remaining in a dead-end conference that as of today is unequivocally on life support
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Prior to the Pac 12 implosion, the speculation had been before the 2026 season.
 
CANESCANES said:
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FXo3Din7pWybK.gif

 
caneingville said:
Based on the fact that the phrase is based on nothing. No one in the conference can leave anytime soon, because no one has an invitation to go anywhere else.
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Was anybody talking about "an invitation" when the SEC announced in 2022 that OU and Texas would be joining?

Or when the B1G announced in 2023 that USC and UCLA would be coming aboard?

Then it was "the B1G isn't interested in further expansion at this time" and "Oregon and Washington would have already been invited if the Big Ten wanted them" right up until the moment Tony Petitti's office announced the Ducks and Huskies would be following the Trojans and Bruins into his conference

Here are two quotes from Greg Sankey worth digging up imo:

From 2022:

Sankey said the (SEC) feels no pressure to add to its 16: “We know who we are. We’re confident in our success. ... Don’t feel pressured to just operate at a number. But we’ll watch what happens around us and be thoughtful but be nimble.”

From 2024:

“I’m not involved in recruitment,” Sankey said. “Our presidents have been clear that I am not going to entangle us in litigation around expansion. So I pay attention, but I’m not engaged in those conversations.”

There is no fear of litigation once an ACC school has paid its exit fee
 
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CaneinBroward said:
For their sake, they better be right. Unfortunately, the FSU math and how they think the outside world views them seems really off. So many negatives with their program at the moment. Hard to see how the B1G would throw them a bid now and even if they did, it would pay at or worse than the ACC payout for the next 5-6 years.
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Not necessarily .... the FIRST team from Florida that joins the B10 brings CARRIAGE FEES with them. Yes those fees are declining as streaming takes more eyeballs ... but it is still a substantial number. The "first" Florida team that joins the B10 could be bringing an incremental $65M in carriage fees with them. Helps.
 
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Hold My Beer said:
Was anybody talking about "an invitation" when the SEC announced in 2022 that OU and Texas would be joining?

Or when the B1G announced in 2023 that USC and UCLA would be coming aboard?

Then it was "the B1G isn't interested in further expansion at this time" and "Oregon and Washington would have already been invited if the Big Ten wanted them" right up until the moment Tony Petitti's office announced the Ducks and Huskies would be following the Trojans and Bruins into his conference

Here are two quotes from Greg Sankey worth digging up imo:

From 2022:

Sankey said the (SEC) feels no pressure to add to its 16: “We know who we are. We’re confident in our success. ... Don’t feel pressured to just operate at a number. But we’ll watch what happens around us and be thoughtful but be nimble.”

From 2024:

“I’m not involved in recruitment,” Sankey said. “Our presidents have been clear that I am not going to entangle us in litigation around expansion. So I pay attention, but I’m not engaged in those conversations.”

There is no fear of litigation once an ACC school has paid its exit fee
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Litigation concerns have evaporated ... now it is strictly a matter of timing and that is driven by the networks. If they decide tomorrow that they are ready they can work out the $$ details now that there are SPECIFIC numbers defined. Huge win for the top ACC brands.
 
Empirical Cane said:
Then why didn't Clemson + FSU press on?
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Two reasons:

1. FSU and Clemson got what they (and the Canes, too) wanted.

It's gonna cost the schools with a P2 ticket roughly $120M (give or take $10M) if they leave in the 2027-28 range with media rights intact. They'll make up a good chunk of that change with increased ticket sales and other income in a major-league conference.

That the ACC accepted this pennies-on-the-dollar deal says plenty about how weak Jim Phillips' hand was and ultimately how the GoR was severely weakened once the schools trying to leave put their cases in front of friendly judges.

2. No doubt in my mind Sankey and Petitti relayed to leadership at Clemson and especially FSU to pipe down and quit trying their cases in the court of public opinion. There's a reason why the two schools have been pretty much silent for the last 6 months or so -- even as clueless ACC homers were taking victory laps last month after ESPN's (toothless) opt-in on the media agreement.

The last thing any commissioner wants is his member schools raising **** and suing the conference
 
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Rickd said:
Not necessarily .... the FIRST team from Florida that joins the B10 brings CARRIAGE FEES with them. Yes those fees are declining as streaming takes more eyeballs ... but it is still a substantial number. The "first" Florida team that joins the B10 could be bringing an incremental $65M in carriage fees with them. Helps.
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I was talking about the advantage for FSU joining. Do you think the B1G would give them a full share right now? I don't. I think they'd be lucky to get a 50% share through the end of this current TV contract.

No AAU status, stuck with a coach for the next 3 years or so because they inked him to a big $$$ deal after one season of excellence, 2-10 season, rumors of financial issues for a while now (including overpromising on NIL to some players), and the B1G is going to gamble that when it does come time for a new TV deal that FSU alone will add $100M per year to at least stay even with the current TV deal? And they will take this gamble for what amounts to about $3.6M per CURRENT member each year for the next 6 years? A number which will surely reduce as streaming becomes more widespread? I'm not so sure about that.

My guess is the B1G is saying "pass" until it's time to renegotiate their TV deal.

No Thank You Reaction GIF
 
Hold My Beer said:
2. No doubt in my mind Sankey and Petitti relayed to leadership at Clemson and especially FSU to pipe down and quit trying their cases in the court of public opinion. There's a reason why the two schools have been pretty much silent for the last 6 months or so -- even as clueless ACC homers were taking a victory lap last month after ESPN's (toothless) opt-in on the media agreement.

The last thing any commissioner wants is his member schools raising **** and suing the conference
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Wasn't that due to the fact the courts told both sides to hash out a compromise and there would be no further court appearances until later this year if an agreement couldn't be reached?
 
Hold My Beer said:
Was anybody talking about "an invitation" when the SEC announced in 2022 that OU and Texas would be joining?

Or when the B1G announced in 2023 that USC and UCLA would be coming aboard?

Then it was "the B1G isn't interested in further expansion at this time" and "Oregon and Washington would have already been invited if the Big Ten wanted them" right up until the moment Tony Petitti's office announced the Ducks and Huskies would be following the Trojans and Bruins into his conference

Here are two quotes from Greg Sankey worth digging up imo:

From 2022:

Sankey said the (SEC) feels no pressure to add to its 16: “We know who we are. We’re confident in our success. ... Don’t feel pressured to just operate at a number. But we’ll watch what happens around us and be thoughtful but be nimble.”

From 2024:

“I’m not involved in recruitment,” Sankey said. “Our presidents have been clear that I am not going to entangle us in litigation around expansion. So I pay attention, but I’m not engaged in those conversations.”

There is no fear of litigation once an ACC school has paid its exit fee
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Yes, actually the landscape was very different then. You can cherry-pick quotes all you want, but we all know that the conferences we’re looking to expand then.
 
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