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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Empirical Cane said:
Hello...

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Empirical Cane said:
In all seriousness...my bet is none of the above.

I've oft stated the "Super Conference" is where the schools will land the next go round.

Bookmark this and let's revist.
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Exactly. So many unknowns over the next 6 years. Everyone seems to take it for granted that Fox and ESPN will actually MAKE money on these TV deals with the B1G and SEC. They may, but I don't think it's a sure thing. One key is whether they can keep the non-SEC and non-B1G fans convinced the playoff is anything other than a B1G/SEC Invitational. If they're smart, they don't mandate 4 automatic bids each. In most years, they'll get them anyway through the playoff committee vote., but the time when 10-2 ACC/Big XII teams are missing the playoffs for 8-4 SEC/B1G on the regular will begin a downturn in interest from the non-B1G and non-SEC fans.

And are we 100% sure Miami gets an invite to the B1G or SEC in 6 years to begin with?

The shame of it all is this cluster**** never needed to occur. The P5 could have held a conclave. Come together, agreed on a common scheduling framework (9 conference games, 1 P5 OOC, 1 Group of 5 OOC, and 1 FCS OOC or some other framework) to make it easier to select schools come playoff time, come up with sensible transfer rules, NIL rules, negotiated TV deals as one entity, and thrown a single playoff spot to the Group of 5 to keep them satisfied. There would then be stability and the P5 schools would have plenty of dough to overspend on coaches and players. lol Oh, and the ACC would have to tell ND that the scheduling agreement between the 2 parties is null and void when it expires in 2036. After 2036, ND doesn't get an ACC bowl if they don't make the playoff and ND continues to never get the opportunity to get a playoff bye unless they decide to join a conference. Let them truly be "independent" in football.
 
Hold My Beer said:
A Super Conference breakaway isn't out of the realm of possibilities, but it is worth that neither of the two competing operations attempting to create such an entity have anywhere with the SEC or B1G. Not even a meeting with Sankey or Petitti or the school presidents.

The branding and cachet of the two remaining heavyweight conferences carries a lot of weight far beyond athletics.
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It is doubtful, but I think it depends on the success or failure of the TV contracts for the B1G/SEC. If they get similar money in negotiating their new deals, they stay on this path. If Fox and ESPN keep it the same or offer less, there could be some movement toward the Super Conference. The now P4 would be smart to work together so they could hedge those years where certain conferences are stronger than others, but why do it if 2 are able to get a king's ransom on their own?
 
Calinative said:
Seems like a good deal for us, as worst case scenario it defines an exact amount that will be needed to pay to fully exit with no issues, ranging from $200M immediately to <$100M in 2030. And in the meantime we are likely going to get $15M/yr more payout than we did this past season. I have no problem. Plus we get more ND games as well..
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We were set with ND in '26 and '28 in addition to this year (you know, the typical 2 there, 1 here deal).
'Canes and ND have openings in '27 an '29.
Let's do it.
 
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Although GT had the highest AVG viewership, we were way ahead in total. This was due to us having 11 rated games v. their 7. Not sure why UNC gets mentioned, nobody watches them.
 
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Calinative said:
Why wouldn’t they be able to pay their bills? lol ESPN accounts for like 20% of Disneys Revenue, and like 25% of all profit.
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Supposedly in the negotiation for the MLB TV renewal, ESPN wanted to pay $300M less per year and MLB decided to go elsewhere. They've shed huge amounts of $$$ in layoffs of various pundits over the past 2 years. They ducked out of broadcasting any of the B1G when their deal ran out a year ago. ESPN revenues have been dropping. While still profitable, profit margins are lower.

It will be interesting to see how their strategy of getting into the streaming world works out. As well as basically putting most of their eggs in the SEC and the college playoff basket. They do get the ACC for pennies on the dollars so keeping the ACC in tow was a no-brainer. They are at least smart enough to start putting more of their property on ABC as it just makes the games at least feel much more significant. Overall, the next 5 years will tell all of us a lot about the long-term future of college football.
 
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