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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

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Empirical Cane said:
AGAIN...

How does an ESPN brokered contract allowing FSU to leave to B1G and bitter rival Fox keep all parties "happy"?

The math isn't mathing.

Unless FSU is going to SEC, I just don't see it.
Click to expand...
Don’t forget both Fox and ESPN are working together to some degree on everything related to CFP and realignment. They are capable of anything that makes them all $$$$.
 
Empirical Cane said:
AGAIN...

How does an ESPN brokered contract allowing FSU to leave to B1G and bitter rival Fox keep all parties "happy"?

The math isn't mathing.

Unless FSU is going to SEC, I just don't see it.
Click to expand...

About 700 pages ago I said this likely ends with espn working out a deal to pay the ACC to move FSU and Clemson to the SEC. ACC stays intact for the short term. No one goes to the B1G until 2028. The math works because I think the target date for the next round of expansion is 2028. That was the original expiration of the ACC GOR before all the shenanigans. Espns not going to fight it and the ACC knows it doesn’t want all the back room dealing stuff to come out. FSU and Clemson are in the SEC for the 2025 season.

Let’s say espn pays the 130 million buyout to the ACC for both teams. That’s 260 million. After they leave, it’s 16 teams left. To make the math easy, let’s count Stanford and Cal as 1 team because they each get 1/2 shares. SMU gets zero. So for all practical purposes, let’s say 15 teams share the revenue.

Payouts are currently around 47 million per team. Divide the 260 million between 15 teams, and that’s around 16.5 million per team. Then split up fsus and Clemsons share- that’s another 3 million per team.

Let’s call it an even 20 million total that each ACC team gets after fsu/clemson leave. That puts the annual payout at around 67 million. ESPN wants to keep everyone happy so it kicks in an extra 3 million per team. Now ACC teams are getting 70 million per team. And that’s before any performance based incentives that the ACC agreed to a couple years ago. So the top teams in the ACC get as much, if not more as the P2 schools through 2028. Then it’s every man for himself.

If UM has a nice run over the next 2-3 years and the ratings follow, then we will be attractive to both the SEC and B1G. It actually puts us in an enviable position because we will be the only school in Florida that is keeping the B1G out of the state. The SEC would do anything to keep the B1G out and the B1G absolutely wants in. Networks have a vested interested- Fox wants the Florida carriage fees. So we will effectively be guaranteed full shares in the P2 by both conferences. Apply Occams Razor and I think this is the simplest solution and everyone eventually gets what they want.
 
Rickd said:
Don’t forget both Fox and ESPN are working together to some degree on everything related to CFP and realignment. They are capable of anything that makes them all $$$$.
Click to expand...
Why do you think Fox and ESPN are working together in any degree? The CFP awarded the entire playoff to ESPN who sublet some games to TNT. Do you think Fox just didn't want a piece of that pie?

ESPN tied their cart to the SEC and Fox tied theirs to the Big 10. If bringing in FSU/Clemson to the SEC brings in more eyes to ESPN, why would Fox be happy about that? College football advertisers pay more to air on the network which gets the highest ratings.

To me, the only level of cooperation shown to date was the SEC & Big 10 realizing they are the 800 pound gorillas in the room and telling the rest of college football "tilt this playoff to our advantage or we're taking our ball and going elsewhere". Other than that, these networks played divide and conquer and the conferences fell right into it.

If the P5 would have looked at the long view and worked together regarding TV, they could have followed the NFL's broadcast model, had more control of their product as a whole, and had much more stability. Opportunity lost, oh well.

At least the CFP finally had ESPN agree to air the championship game on ABC in 2026 and onward - hard to believe the 2nd most popular sport's championship has been held on cable for 15 years now. One other suggestion - with the NFL running its regular season into the 1st week of January now, hold the championship game on the Saturday of that weekend instead of on Monday. Make it into a College Super Saturday like the NFL's Super Sunday.
 
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CaneinBroward said:
Why do you think Fox and ESPN are working together in any degree? The CFP awarded the entire playoff to ESPN who sublet some games to TNT. Do you think Fox just didn't want a piece of that pie?

ESPN tied their cart to the SEC and Fox tied theirs to the Big 10. If bringing in FSU/Clemson to the SEC brings in more eyes to ESPN, why would Fox be happy about that? College football advertisers pay more to air on the network which gets the highest ratings.

To me, the only level of cooperation shown to date was the SEC & Big 10 realizing they are the 800 pound gorillas in the room and telling the rest of college football "tilt this playoff to our advantage or we're taking our ball and going elsewhere". Other than that, these networks played divide and conquer and the conferences fell right into it.

If the P5 would have looked at the long view and worked together regarding TV, they could have followed the NFL's broadcast model, had more control of their product as a whole, and had much more stability. Opportunity lost, oh well.

At least the CFP finally had ESPN agree to air the championship game on ABC in 2026 and onward - hard to believe the 2nd most popular sport's championship has been held on cable for 15 years now. One other suggestion - with the NFL running its regular season into the 1st week of January now, hold the championship game on the Saturday of that weekend instead of on Monday. Make it into a College Super Saturday like the NFL's Super Sunday.
Click to expand...
Thats YOUR take on what transpired. I have read other takes on it back before the CFP deal was finalized and those comments were that the CFP negotiation process WAS to a degree horse trading regarding future realignment and that FOX basically backed out for that reason. Deals were made and there is an expectation that there will be mutual programming deals structured with more OOC games between the two conferences.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
About 700 pages ago I said this likely ends with espn working out a deal to pay the ACC to move FSU and Clemson to the SEC. ACC stays intact for the short term. No one goes to the B1G until 2028. The math works because I think the target date for the next round of expansion is 2028. That was the original expiration of the ACC GOR before all the shenanigans. Espns not going to fight it and the ACC knows it doesn’t want all the back room dealing stuff to come out. FSU and Clemson are in the SEC for the 2025 season.

Let’s say espn pays the 130 million buyout to the ACC for both teams. That’s 260 million. After they leave, it’s 16 teams left. To make the math easy, let’s count Stanford and Cal as 1 team because they each get 1/2 shares. SMU gets zero. So for all practical purposes, let’s say 15 teams share the revenue.

Payouts are currently around 47 million per team. Divide the 260 million between 15 teams, and that’s around 16.5 million per team. Then split up fsus and Clemsons share- that’s another 3 million per team.

Let’s call it an even 20 million total that each ACC team gets after fsu/clemson leave. That puts the annual payout at around 67 million. ESPN wants to keep everyone happy so it kicks in an extra 3 million per team. Now ACC teams are getting 70 million per team. And that’s before any performance based incentives that the ACC agreed to a couple years ago. So the top teams in the ACC get as much, if not more as the P2 schools through 2028. Then it’s every man for himself.

If UM has a nice run over the next 2-3 years and the ratings follow, then we will be attractive to both the SEC and B1G. It actually puts us in an enviable position because we will be the only school in Florida that is keeping the B1G out of the state. The SEC would do anything to keep the B1G out and the B1G absolutely wants in. Networks have a vested interested- Fox wants the Florida carriage fees. So we will effectively be guaranteed full shares in the P2 by both conferences. Apply Occams Razor and I think this is the simplest solution and everyone eventually gets what they want.
Click to expand...
This is math that maths.

I would see ESPN + ACC putting in something in the extension that at least attempts to discourage future defections.

Screenshot_20240526_094253_DuckDuckGo.jpg
 
CaneinBroward said:
Why do you think Fox and ESPN are working together in any degree? The CFP awarded the entire playoff to ESPN who sublet some games to TNT. Do you think Fox just didn't want a piece of that pie?

ESPN tied their cart to the SEC and Fox tied theirs to the Big 10. If bringing in FSU/Clemson to the SEC brings in more eyes to ESPN, why would Fox be happy about that? College football advertisers pay more to air on the network which gets the highest ratings.

To me, the only level of cooperation shown to date was the SEC & Big 10 realizing they are the 800 pound gorillas in the room and telling the rest of college football "tilt this playoff to our advantage or we're taking our ball and going elsewhere". Other than that, these networks played divide and conquer and the conferences fell right into it.

If the P5 would have looked at the long view and worked together regarding TV, they could have followed the NFL's broadcast model, had more control of their product as a whole, and had much more stability. Opportunity lost, oh well.

At least the CFP finally had ESPN agree to air the championship game on ABC in 2026 and onward - hard to believe the 2nd most popular sport's championship has been held on cable for 15 years now. One other suggestion - with the NFL running its regular season into the 1st week of January now, hold the championship game on the Saturday of that weekend instead of on Monday. Make it into a College Super Saturday like the NFL's Super Sunday.
Click to expand...
Did the Germans work with the US before they bombed Pearl Harbor!!??

I don't think so.

ESPN + Fox both partner with the Big 12 for content right?
 
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CaneinBroward said:
Why do you think Fox and ESPN are working together in any degree? The CFP awarded the entire playoff to ESPN who sublet some games to TNT. Do you think Fox just didn't want a piece of that pie?

ESPN tied their cart to the SEC and Fox tied theirs to the Big 10. If bringing in FSU/Clemson to the SEC brings in more eyes to ESPN, why would Fox be happy about that? College football advertisers pay more to air on the network which gets the highest ratings.

To me, the only level of cooperation shown to date was the SEC & Big 10 realizing they are the 800 pound gorillas in the room and telling the rest of college football "tilt this playoff to our advantage or we're taking our ball and going elsewhere". Other than that, these networks played divide and conquer and the conferences fell right into it.

If the P5 would have looked at the long view and worked together regarding TV, they could have followed the NFL's broadcast model, had more control of their product as a whole, and had much more stability. Opportunity lost, oh well.

At least the CFP finally had ESPN agree to air the championship game on ABC in 2026 and onward - hard to believe the 2nd most popular sport's championship has been held on cable for 15 years now. One other suggestion - with the NFL running its regular season into the 1st week of January now, hold the championship game on the Saturday of that weekend instead of on Monday. Make it into a College Super Saturday like the NFL's Super Sunday.
Click to expand...
The notion that there was some grand CFP deal between Fox and ESPN kinda goes out the window when Fox not only didn't get the sublicense TNT got, but also picked up one of the two NFL windows that will run opposite the CFP first round and tank it's ratings.
 
scane said:
The notion that there was some grand CFP deal between Fox and ESPN kinda goes out the window when Fox not only didn't get the sublicense TNT got, but also picked up one of the two NFL windows that will run opposite the CFP first round and tank it's ratings.
Click to expand...
Look deeper ... ESPN, Fox, Warner Brothers (who owns TNT) ... have formed a joint venture sports streaming platform. They are working together in totally restructuring the way major football games are being programmed and broadcast ... to optimize valuable air time. I would love to be able to read the contract detailing all of the agreements pertaining to the new CFP as the comments from media connected individuals is that the other conferences have basically ceded all future major decision making regarding the CFP and even facets of conference realignment to the SEC and Big 10 ... and new programs joining either conference will be primarily MEDIA APPROVED as programs that generate viewership and increase the value of commercial time.
 
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Empirical Cane said:
This is math that maths.

I would see ESPN + ACC putting in something in the extension that at least attempts to discourage future defections.
Click to expand...


ACC and FSU and Clemson are headed for divorce. IMHO, the ACC will let them go and instead focus their fight on not letting any other schools out, especially Miami for fear of total implosion. And I think the remaining institutions will vote and PASS new agreements making it harder to leave. That spells long term disaster for Miami. UNC will get subsidies from State of NC and won’t go anywhere and ND will stay as long as ACC remains.

Miami needs to “fight” for their way out right now… or else.
 
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rascon said:
ACC and FSU and Clemson are headed for divorce. IMHO, the ACC will let them go and instead focus their fight on not letting any other schools out, especially Miami for fear of total implosion. And I think the remaining institutions will vote and PASS new agreements making it harder to leave. That spells long term disaster for Miami. UNC will get subsidies from State of NC and won’t go anywhere and ND will stay as long as ACC remains.

Miami needs to “fight” for their way out right now… or else.
Click to expand...

IMG_1436.jpeg
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
About 700 pages ago I said this likely ends with espn working out a deal to pay the ACC to move FSU and Clemson to the SEC. ACC stays intact for the short term. No one goes to the B1G until 2028. The math works because I think the target date for the next round of expansion is 2028. That was the original expiration of the ACC GOR before all the shenanigans. Espns not going to fight it and the ACC knows it doesn’t want all the back room dealing stuff to come out. FSU and Clemson are in the SEC for the 2025 season.

Let’s say espn pays the 130 million buyout to the ACC for both teams. That’s 260 million. After they leave, it’s 16 teams left. To make the math easy, let’s count Stanford and Cal as 1 team because they each get 1/2 shares. SMU gets zero. So for all practical purposes, let’s say 15 teams share the revenue.

Payouts are currently around 47 million per team. Divide the 260 million between 15 teams, and that’s around 16.5 million per team. Then split up fsus and Clemsons share- that’s another 3 million per team.

Let’s call it an even 20 million total that each ACC team gets after fsu/clemson leave. That puts the annual payout at around 67 million. ESPN wants to keep everyone happy so it kicks in an extra 3 million per team. Now ACC teams are getting 70 million per team. And that’s before any performance based incentives that the ACC agreed to a couple years ago. So the top teams in the ACC get as much, if not more as the P2 schools through 2028. Then it’s every man for himself.

If UM has a nice run over the next 2-3 years and the ratings follow, then we will be attractive to both the SEC and B1G. It actually puts us in an enviable position because we will be the only school in Florida that is keeping the B1G out of the state. The SEC would do anything to keep the B1G out and the B1G absolutely wants in. Networks have a vested interested- Fox wants the Florida carriage fees. So we will effectively be guaranteed full shares in the P2 by both conferences. Apply Occams Razor and I think this is the simplest solution and everyone eventually gets what they want.
Click to expand...
Am I wrong that the 70 million your talking about is only for one season cause that 260 million from FSU/Clemson leaving is a one time payout so a one time split between the teams?
After that one time split all the teams then go back to just 53 million going forward wouldn't they?
 
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