If you follow @Genetics56 on X, he's made it quite clear Miami will not be getting a P2 invite. He claims to be a well-placed insider - perhaps he is, perhaps he is not. I'd recommend reviewing his feed before making a judgement either way. But I get the sense that it is more than just "Miami is not as valuable as it once was." Rather, there is real movement to keep Miami out of the P2. Once Miami voted to let Cal, Stanford, and SMU join and also voted to let the ACC sue FSU, he was very public about not wanting Miami in the P2. (Funny he never said that about the other schools, but whatever.) He claims that the networks are not really interested in Miami (especially FOX).
His argument is that the P2 will break away, the rest will be left with a G8, and the G8 will be a "minor league" for CFB where players can develop and jump to the P2 to improve draft stock. He "lovingly" calls it the "kiddie table," a step above FCS tier football. ACC leftovers, B12, CUSA, etc., would get CW-network type deals, play on ESPN+, occasional regional TV exposure on odd nights (Tuesdays, Wednesdays) while B1G and SEC games dominate regional and national markets.
But obviously what concerns me is the underlying theme that, regardless of Miami's performance this year, they will be "locked out" of the P2 because there are schools/conferences/networks that want to see that. We might want to dismiss that out of hand because we remember the days when Miami drew big audiences (occasionally fans to the stadium too) and always want to say, "When Miami wins, people watch."
But is that enough? Culturally, Miami is unique. Small private school, small alumni base, South Florida - in some ways similar to USC but without the long tradition and rivalries (at least as long as USC-Notre Dame). And what's more, I don't find it implausible that there is a deep hatred, even loathing of the program. We joke, "The hate is real," but maybe it is not a joke.
Perhaps I'm just paranoid, but reading this guy and others, I don't get the sense that all Miami has to do is "win." A CFP playoff birth this year would not be enough to overcome the prejudice.
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