From what I have read in the last few pages is this…
FSU and Clemson will likely bounce once these proceedings start to take off (discovery/venue rulings should tip everyone off as to how that will play out).
That said, ACC definitely sees itself as a conference long term, and they appear to have 6 teams committed (hence the “vote” to move forward with the countersuit against FSU). Pretty sure they think they will be able to cobble together a conference that is considered on par with B12. Not so sure about that, but that’s the feeling I’m getting and probably why the voted for the new distribution model recently.
What is still not known. ND and UNC. I think eventually when FSU/Clemson settle, UNC will be granted right to leave as well as they have a definite home in the P2 right now. The choice would be up to UNC with full shares guaranteed from jump. If NC State has to go, then I think SEC, but if on its own, the B1G becomes a more viable option.
ND wants to stay independent. As long as the current voted on model stays in place (3 guaranteed spots for P2, 2 guarantted spots for ACC/B12, there is no urgency for ND to dip right now, as long as the ACC can keep enough teams to retain their quotas. Stanford and Cal will be the bait the ACC uses to keep ND from moving onto B1G. Money won’t be a driving factor for ND. The only thing that could sway ND is the ability to gain a playoff bye, and if the format is 14 or 16 teams, ND won’t feel like it is missing out.
And if ND isn’t going to B1G in the near future, than I’m not sure where Miami has a home RIGHT NOW… Maybe in the 2030s or when ND finally feels like it needs to join a conference, but otherwise the crystal balls are definitely not saying anything is imminent behind closed doors.
And watch Miami file a lawsuit next week and make all this moot. lol.