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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Ispyin said:
I hate fsu but from a pure business experience in this and facts like ratings and brand rank plus real reporting (not genetics) you’re way off in both sets of rankings in terms of FSU.

SEC on unc seems right but tbh who their number 1 or 2 rank at this point is totally unclear to me. So many contradictions out there
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Just plain old Viewership Numbers ... FSU blows away everybody in the ACC over the past 20 year period. Face it, Miami underperformed dramatically, sitting on their laurels, and in the time UM has ONE 10 win seasons, FSU had 10 and a National Championship. Of course their viewership numbers reflect the big game broadcasts. Miami, still a top 15 brand, and ranked #4 (ahead of FSU) in a recruit survey done last August. Mario is making noise, is being heard, and NOW he just needs to win.
 
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I was asked my honest thoughts on if ND would move off being an Independent, & I said my thoughts are no. The new $$ structure just deepened my thoughts.

If ND makes the CFP, they will be getting $12+m, while teams from the B1G & SEC will be getting $21. Between them being a lock for the CFP if their record justifies, the new UA agreement (assuming UA can hold their end of the bargain financially), the new TV deal, & the revenue as a partial member of the ACC, ND’s revenue as an Independent will be slightly less than those who are full time member of both aforementioned conference.

The only way I can see ND joining a conference is if the ACC implodes. From what I gathered, part of the ACC expansion was the agreement The ACC has w/ ESPN, being they need to be at 15+ teams at all times. Right now, they are 18. If FSU, Clemson, & UNC force their way out, they’ll still be at 15. Those were the only 3 schools who went on record to vote against expansion, & for good reason.

So it’ll be interesting to see how much of a domino effect this will be if FSU is able to negotiate their way out of this, but ND will be very content on staying b/c unlike the dopes that signed away their rights due to nepotism, ND has been the absolute benefactors of nepotism from Under Armour & cronyism from NBC Sports.
 
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USNAVYCANE said:
My own ranking of the teams the B1G and the SEC will target.
B1G: 1. ND 2. Miami. 3. UNC 4. FSU 5. Clemson 6. UVA/NCSt (which one would depends on UNC)
SEC: 1. Clemson 2. UNC 3. FSU/UM . I don’t think the sec has any interest in any other team than those (they’d take ND in a heartbeat but won’t peruse them)
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Just passing it on FWIW

Pete Thamel is ESPN's top CFB insider and their go-to reporter for realignment insight. No doubt whatsoever he talks with Sankey.

Thamel was quoted back in December saying the SEC's top four ACC targets if it had to play defense against the Big Ten were North Carolina, Virginia, FSU and Clemson ... and more or less in that order.

I think the SEC has strategic reasons for publicly "leaking" North Carolina and Virginia as the top two, but any stated preference for No. 17-20 is irrelevant: The SEC isn't expanding to 18 and then stopping. The "final" number (at least in the next stage) is going to be either 20 or 24.

Firmly believe Sankey will do what he needs to do lock up every P2-worthy school in the South (except for Miami for reasons that've been discussed in this very thread many times)
 
Rellyrell said:
I was asked my honest thoughts on if ND would move off being an Independent, & I said my thoughts are no. The new $$ structure just deepened my thoughts.

If ND makes the CFP, they will be getting $12m, while teams from the B1G & SEC will be getting $21. Between them being a lock for the CFP if their record justifies, the new UA agreement (assuming UA can hold their end of the bargain financially), the new TV deal, & the revenue as a partial member of the ACC, ND’s revenue as an Independent will be slightly less than those who are full time member of both aforementioned conference.

The only way I can see ND joining a conference is if the ACC implodes. From what I gathered, part of the ACC expansion was the agreement The ACC has w/ ESPN, being they need to be at 15+ teams at all times. Right now, they are 18. If FSU, Clemson, & UNC force their way out, they’ll still be at 15. Those were the only 3 schools who went on record to vote against expansion, & for good reason.

So it’ll be interesting to see how much of a domino effect this will be if FSU is able to negotiate their way out of this, but ND will be very content on staying b/c unlike the dopes that signed away their rights due to nepotism, ND has been the absolute benefactors of nepotism from Under Armour & cronyism from NBC Sports.
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Nice analysis Relly.

To your point, I do see the ACC imploding sooner rather than later and thus, as you said, ND will end up in a conference (B1G) because it will have no acceptable alternative.

Once FSU gets a foot out the door, the ACC is taking on water and schools are gonna be looking to bail before the ship sinks

Don't see ND sticking around for a second- or third-rate piecemeal conference for less money and with little chance to play B1G and SEC teams in no hurry to help the Irish with their scheduling challenges as a football independent.

Notre Dame is about to get boxed in
 
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Hold My Beer said:
Just passing it on FWIW

Pete Thamel is ESPN's top CFB insider and their go-to reporter for realignment insight. No doubt whatsoever he talks with Sankey.

Thamel was quoted back in December saying the SEC's top four ACC targets if it had to play defense against the Big Ten were North Carolina, Virginia, FSU and Clemson ... and more or less in that order.

I think the SEC has strategic reasons for publicly "leaking" North Carolina and Virginia as the top two, but any stated preference for No. 17-20 is irrelevant: The SEC isn't expanding to 18 and then stopping. The "final" number (at least in the next stage) is going to be either 20 or 24.

Firmly believe Sankey will do what he needs to do lock up every P2-worthy school in the South (except for Miami for reasons that've been discussed in this very thread many times)
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Get the popcorn ready ... will be something to witness. Right now if the B10 just goes to 22 that is 4 more and the SEC to 20 is another 4 ... so that would be 8 schools. All from the ACC? Or just 6 and poach 2 top B12 schools? Add 6 more if the both go to 24, but for some reason I believe that will happen in the 2nd wave.
 
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There have been some comments that in an aggressive realignment move the P2 would grab the top 6 ACC football programs and the top 2 remaining in the B12. Utah had a couple of good seasons but who else would they consider? Would Baylor be worth adding as it gets you into Texas? Or might they push for (as some have commented) adding Texas A&M?
 
Rickd said:
Get the popcorn ready ... will be something to witness. Right now if the B10 just goes to 22 that is 4 more and the SEC to 20 is another 4 ... so that would be 8 schools. All from the ACC? Or just 6 and poach 2 top B12 schools? Add 6 more if the both go to 24, but for some reason I believe that will happen in the 2nd wave.
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When ND pulls the trigger and heads to the B1G, we'll be right with them as Nos. 19 and 20.
 
Rellyrell said:
I was asked my honest thoughts on if ND would move off being an Independent, & I said my thoughts are no. The new $$ structure just deepened my thoughts.

If ND makes the CFP, they will be getting $12m, while teams from the B1G & SEC will be getting $21. Between them being a lock for the CFP if their record justifies, the new UA agreement (assuming UA can hold their end of the bargain financially), the new TV deal, & the revenue as a partial member of the ACC, ND’s revenue as an Independent will be slightly less than those who are full time member of both aforementioned conference.

The only way I can see ND joining a conference is if the ACC implodes. From what I gathered, part of the ACC expansion was the agreement The ACC has w/ ESPN, being they need to be at 15+ teams at all times. Right now, they are 18. If FSU, Clemson, & UNC force their way out, they’ll still be at 15. Those were the only 3 schools who went on record to vote against expansion, & for good reason.

So it’ll be interesting to see how much of a domino effect this will be if FSU is able to negotiate their way out of this, but ND will be very content on staying b/c unlike the dopes that signed away their rights due to nepotism, ND has been the absolute benefactors of nepotism from Under Armour & cronyism from NBC Sports.
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If ND makes the playoff, they earn $19 MM. If they don't, they make $13 MM.

Agree with the rest of what you said.
 
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Hold My Beer said:
ACC is taking on water and schools are gonna be looking to bail before the ship sinks
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The acc is going to bring in UConn, Tulane, and a bunch of other schools to replace fsu, Clemson, UNC, and UVA. The espn deal says there have to be 15 schools or espn gets to renegotiate. It's funny that everyone thinks that espn isn't going to extend the deal in 2027 without FSU, Clemson, etc. People don't appreciate how egregiously lopsided the deal was in favor of espn. Even with a bunch of rando schools + Miami, the tv deal is still an incredible bargain for espn so they have millions of reasons to extend the deal. I look forward to our new rivalry with Tulane.
 
Rickd said:
Very interesting result of the FSU suit vs the ACC was a confirmation BY the ACC that the EXTENSION of the option period granted to ESPN to extend the media agreement WAS IN FACT AN AMENDMENT TO THE 2016 AGREEMENT. The extension of the time period from 2021 to February 2025 was described by ESPN as an AMENDMENT in repeated phrases in the extension agreement and, since ANY MEDIA RIGHTS AGREEMENT AMENDMENT REQUIRES 2/3 MEMBER APPROVAL the extension granted unilaterally by Phillips is VOID (that should be a judges' ruling).

That is huge as it confirms not only that the current ESPN media agreement expires on June 30, 2027, but it also confirms that ESPN has no authority to extend that agreement even if they so desire. If that is the ruling, then every ACC program is free to leave with all media rights, just paying the ACC exit fee, for the 2027 football season.
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Josh Pate's latest word is FSU v. ACC comes to conclusion next few months (possibly sooner)....almost with certainty prior to kickoff of season. He theorized ESPN knows FSU is leaving and since they [ESPN] control SEC, so why not prep the space for FSU to SEC to leverage those properties together? He then intimated Miami, Clemson, UNC, and others to BiG10 and SEC in massive brand grab...

However FSU v. ACC resolves, will have significant ripple effects.

Your mileage may vary.
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
The acc is going to bring in UConn, Tulane, and a bunch of other schools to replace fsu, Clemson, UNC, and UVA. The espn deal says there have to be 15 schools or espn gets to renegotiate. It's funny that everyone thinks that espn isn't going to extend the deal in 2027 without FSU, Clemson, etc. People don't appreciate how egregiously lopsided the deal was in favor of espn. Even with a bunch of rando schools + Miami, the tv deal is still an incredible bargain for espn so they have millions of reasons to extend the deal. I look forward to our new rivalry with Tulane.
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Tired Sleep GIF
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
The acc is going to bring in UConn, Tulane, and a bunch of other schools to replace fsu, Clemson, UNC, and UVA. The espn deal says there have to be 15 schools or espn gets to renegotiate. It's funny that everyone thinks that espn isn't going to extend the deal in 2027 without FSU, Clemson, etc. People don't appreciate how egregiously lopsided the deal was in favor of espn. Even with a bunch of rando schools + Miami, the tv deal is still an incredible bargain for espn so they have millions of reasons to extend the deal. I look forward to our new rivalry with Tulane.
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They didn't exercise their original option to extend ... and there is no reason for them to do it in 2/25. Their programming options are limited without FSU / Clemson / UNC / UVA and likely Miami. Nobody cares about SMU vs BC or Syracuse, they get NO national broadcast airtime, and won't even be able to get broad exposure on Friday nights as the B10 is going to launch "Friday Night Football with the B10" this Fall. Furthermore, if the attorneys are correct, ESPN does NOT HAVE a legal extension option as the extension from 2021-2025 was A MEDIA RIGHTS AMENDMENT that required 2/3 vote ... and that was not obtained. ESPN MIGHT offer $20M a year to the "G5" version of the ACC, but the current figure will not be approached in any new offer (that requires member approval and a new GOR). Makes more $$$ sense for ESPN to take the top brands to the P2 where they can be FEATURED in big game matchups that generate a). Viewership and b). High dollar commercial revenue. The ACC games will be on regional streaming apps that haven't even been created yet.
 
Rickd said:
They didn't exercise their original option to extend ... and there is no reason for them to do it in 2/25. Their programming options are limited without FSU / Clemson / UNC / UVA and likely Miami. Nobody cares about SMU vs BC or Syracuse, they get NO national broadcast airtime, and won't even be able to get broad exposure on Friday nights as the B10 is going to launch "Friday Night Football with the B10" this Fall. Furthermore, if the attorneys are correct, ESPN does NOT HAVE a legal extension option as the extension from 2021-2025 was A MEDIA RIGHTS AMENDMENT that required 2/3 vote ... and that was not obtained. ESPN MIGHT offer $20M a year to the "G5" version of the ACC, but the current figure will not be approached in any new offer (that requires member approval and a new GOR). Makes more $$$ sense for ESPN to take the top brands to the P2 where they can be FEATURED in big game matchups that generate a). Viewership and b). High dollar commercial revenue. The ACC games will be on regional streaming apps that haven't even been created yet.
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BC v Pitt

Syr v VT

SMU v Duke

ON THE OCHO!
 
Rickd said:
Just plain old Viewership Numbers ... FSU blows away everybody in the ACC over the past 20 year period. Face it, Miami underperformed dramatically, sitting on their laurels, and in the time UM has ONE 10 win seasons, FSU had 10 and a National Championship. Of course their viewership numbers reflect the big game broadcasts. Miami, still a top 15 brand, and ranked #4 (ahead of FSU) in a recruit survey done last August. Mario is making noise, is being heard, and NOW he just needs to win.
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Some call it sitting on their laurels, others say it is moving like lasagna behind the scenes...
 
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Rickd said:
One comment was that the SEC is getting adamant about protecting the SEC territory and doesn't want to let the B10 in. That might mean they WILL take FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA. That would likely open the door for a Miami to the B10 along with ND. The only thing that seems certain at this point is that the status quo will not be maintained and the cream of the ACC will be plucked by the P2. And in most scenarios you see FSU, Clemson, Miami, ND, UNC as the prime VIEWER POTENTIAL properties, with a couple of others for "carriage fee" addition.
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This seems like the most likely scenario to me, I think the 2 most likely outcomes are:
  1. SEC protects territory and takes a large group of ACC southern programs. A big grouping like Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, NCSt, UVA, & VT, to get to and rest at 24 teams. My reasoning is:
    • ESPN owns both conferences so ACC can't sue and say that ESPN is interfering with ACC.
    • It gains the SEC new territory without having to worry about local politicians preventing the moves in NC and VA.
    • You bring in a balance of powerhouses, brands, and more beatable programs to keep the conference competitive top to bottom.
    • Every addition fits the mold with adding and establishing natural rivalries, so even lower level matchups are interesting.
    • It doesn't hurt that it boosts the academic profile of the conference.
    • Travel distances are pretty manageable, about as good as it gets for expansion to 24 teams.
    • And to be honest, who else makes more sense for the SEC to grab to get to 24?
  2. Outcome 2 is the SEC goes for FSU and Clemson for brands and goes for VT and NCSt for territory. Call me crazy, but I don't think there's a scenario where UNC and UVA end up in the SEC unless they come packaged with their rival state schools, for multiple reasons. Regardless, if the SEC leaves southern ACC programs on the table, I think they become must-haves for the B1G. Miami, GT, UNC, UVA, and probably Duke would end up in the B1G in that scenario, with their hope of grabbing ND along the way.
I think Big12 is waiting for Pitt and Louisville, with SU and Duke having solid chances of getting invites as well, though I'd guess that Duke would seriously consider dropping football at that point rather than join, and park their basketball in a BB league. Cal and Stanford I think would hold their noses and accept Big12 invites at that point, SMU, BC, and Wake probably do some form of merger with AAC, similar to the Pac12/MWC situation.
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
The acc is going to bring in UConn, Tulane, and a bunch of other schools to replace fsu, Clemson, UNC, and UVA. The espn deal says there have to be 15 schools or espn gets to renegotiate. It's funny that everyone thinks that espn isn't going to extend the deal in 2027 without FSU, Clemson, etc. People don't appreciate how egregiously lopsided the deal was in favor of espn. Even with a bunch of rando schools + Miami, the tv deal is still an incredible bargain for espn so they have millions of reasons to extend the deal. I look forward to our new rivalry with Tulane.
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This happens and the domain CanesInSight.com will be available for $3
 
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