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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Ispyin said:
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The difference in distribution between the two sets of conferences — SEC/Big Ten and ACC/Big 12 — will likely exceed $300 million a year. The Power Two will earn around a combined $760 million versus around $440 million for the ACC and Big 12. Roughly $115 million is slotted for the Group of Five.

What I really want to know is if Raycom will be alright.
 
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My Attempt at a 48 Team P2. Each school can be given up to 2 Non-Division permanent opponents (so Miami could still play FSU and UF yearly, USC could play ND, Texas can play Oklahoma, etc). But each school must play at least 10 games against these 48. And you figure the schedule out from there. Won't be as clean as the NFL schedule because there aren't 17 games, and you need to preserve permanent rivals.

American Conference:
Northern: Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan St, Illinois
Eastern: Notre Dame, Miami, PSU, Pitt, VTech, WVU
SouthWestern: Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Arkansas, ASU, Louisville
Pacific: USC, Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Stanford, Utah

National Conference:
Atlantic: FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, NCSt, Maryland
Southeastern: UGA, Florida, Auburn, GTech, South Carolina, UCF
Central: Oklahoma, Nebraska, Oklahoma St, Missouri, Kansas St, Colorado
Southern: Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss St

The only one I really question is SouthWestern cause I included ASU/Louisville who don't really have a good place. They could easily be replaced by like SMU and Texas Tech/Kansas or someone else. Colorado can be replaced.
Some Programs left out: BYU, Boise St, SMU, Baylor, Texas Tech, USF, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Kansas, Indiana, Duke, Cincinnatti, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College, Purdue, Wake Forest, Iowa St...

So theres definitely debate about the final like 5-8 spots, where you could say another Texas school instead of ASU or something. Or maybe Taking out Colorado, a Mississippi school, etc... The Central is probably the weakest division so could use an upgrade... still I think this is pretty good.

Playoff: 14 team like NFL. Top in each conference gets a bye.
 
This is a game of chicken - there is a big pot of money in the middle and the P2 has put ACC/Big12 to a decision…

Call P2 bluff and hope they aren’t drawing dead against P2 winning hand (breakaway from the NCAA)
or
fold and let P2 take the pot and cripple them in significantly.

Going to go watch Rounders now, lol
 
calinative umstudent said:
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My Attempt at a 48 Team P2. Each school can be given up to 2 Non-Division permanent opponents (so Miami could still play FSU and UF yearly, USC could play ND, Texas can play Oklahoma, etc). But each school must play at least 10 games against these 48. And you figure the schedule out from there. Won't be as clean as the NFL schedule because there aren't 17 games, and you need to preserve permanent rivals.

American Conference:
Northern: Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan St, Illinois
Eastern: Notre Dame, Miami, PSU, Pitt, VTech, WVU
SouthWestern: Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Arkansas, ASU, Louisville
Pacific: USC, Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Stanford, Utah

National Conference:
Atlantic: FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, NCSt, Maryland
Southeastern: UGA, Florida, Auburn, GTech, South Carolina, UCF
Central: Oklahoma, Nebraska, Oklahoma St, Missouri, Kansas St, Colorado
Southern: Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss St

The only one I really question is SouthWestern cause I included ASU/Louisville who don't really have a good place. They could easily be replaced by like SMU and Texas Tech/Kansas or someone else. Colorado can be replaced.
Some Programs left out: BYU, Boise St, SMU, Baylor, Texas Tech, USF, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Kansas, Indiana, Duke, Cincinnatti, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College, Purdue, Wake Forest, Iowa St...

So theres definitely debate about the final like 5-8 spots, where you could say another Texas school instead of ASU or something. Or maybe Taking out Colorado, a Mississippi school, etc... The Central is probably the weakest division so could use an upgrade... still I think this is pretty good.

Playoff: 14 team like NFL. Top in each conference gets a bye.
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The B1G is not going to kick out OG B1G members for the likes of Utah, Vtech and West Virginia, lmao… both B1G and SEC are going to operate independantly of each other but collab on the postseason tourney. So I doubt B1G would be able to get Texsa, A&M as part of some fantasy draft.

If the B1G and SEC breakaway, it will be a race for the teams not already in to get in. Instead of a fantasy draft, it will be more like a game of musical chairs and the music stops for good. Whoever can get those final chairs is in.
 
rascon said:
The B1G is not going to kick out OG B1G members for the likes of Utah, Vtech and West Virginia, lmao… both B1G and SEC are going to operate independantly of each other but collab on the postseason tourney. So I doubt B1G would be able to get Texsa, A&M as part of some fantasy draft.

If the B1G and SEC breakaway, it will be a race for the teams not already in to get in. Instead of a fantasy draft, it will be more like a game of musical chairs and the music stops for good. Whoever can get those final chairs is in.
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Where do you see the BIG or SEC in my breakdown?
It's just as likely this all ends with Fox/ESPN/NBC/etc all picking and choosing the specific programs they want.
 
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rascon said:
okay. the networks are going to hold a fantasy draft, gotcha.
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You don't think it's possible? The same way a school like FSU gets out and into the P2 is the same way Fox gets out of having to pay a worthless Rutgers...
Either it's about money or it isn't.

I'm not gunna say to start with it couldn't be BIG+SEC. But I don't think thats the ultimate end result. I think ultimately it's going to be the networks that are deciding who the big money makers are.

And do you think all the rest of those 48 programs are going to say no to a major thing like that cause I kicked Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, and like Purdue out? lol. And I said there is some room for changing a handful of teams anyways.

But ultimately to have a 8 division of 6 teams you have to make choices. It's possible to have all Big10 and SEC, but I just don't think a school like Rutgers is as valuable as Pitt. I don't think Indiana is as valuable as Louisville. I think UCF has a lot of growth potential, and Stanford is better than either Vandy or Purdue... etc.

Anyways I think the actual 8 groupings I created are legit pretty good, as long as you are able to preserve up to 1 or 2 Out of division rivalries per team. It'd work out very good if this were the grouping imo.
 
rascon said:
okay. the networks are going to hold a fantasy draft, gotcha.
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No one should be shocked by anything that happens from here on out. Do you think USC and UCLA came up on the Big 10's radar without the involvement of TV execs?

I'd say it's much more believable that TV is calling the shots at this point than any conferences or schools.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
Where do you see the BIG or SEC in my breakdown?
It's just as likely this all ends with Fox/ESPN/NBC/etc all picking and choosing the specific programs they want.
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Realistically they will be picking the NON B10 AND NON SEC programs that they want to add to the current conferences. I would not be surprised if the money distribution at some point within each conference takes into consideration W/L record and ranking. They aren't going to kick Vandy out but there is no reason for them to pay Vandy the same as Georgia either.
 
CaneinBroward said:
No one should be shocked by anything that happens from here on out. Do you think USC and UCLA came up on the Big 10's radar without the involvement of TV execs?

I'd say it's much more believable that TV is calling the shots at this point than any conferences or schools.
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The entire realignment is 100% VIEWERSHIP driven. Conference presidents have comparatively small decision making power regarding new conference additions. It is 100% about optimizing programming big games to increase viewership and charge more $$$ for commercials. The schools WANT the money and therefore have ceded the final decision making. Look no further than the B10 just announcing 2 days ago that this Fall they will have at least 9 FRIDAY NIGHT prime time B10 games. No more Valdosta State vs. SE Louisiana Tech. Will be Michigan vs USC for a nationally broadcast game and will be promoted similar to then Monday Night Football was launched. The schools are just along for the $$$ ride.
 
Rickd said:
Disagree ... the P2 is all about optimizing programming while maintaining historic rivalries ... "migrating" a school into a new conference in this case just takes a phone call. Everybody wants ND.
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You said disagree and then disagreed with yourself.
 
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USNAVYCANE said:
I honestly don’t get FSUck in the B1G and us in the SEC should be the other way around IMO
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The KEY WORD in that scenario is "one HYPOTHETICAL LOOK". The only ones that actually have a legit clue of who will end up where at this point are FOX & ESPN and they will probably flip flop a few times before a consensus is reached.
 
Rickd said:
Realistically they will be picking the NON B10 AND NON SEC programs that they want to add to the current conferences. I would not be surprised if the money distribution at some point within each conference takes into consideration W/L record and ranking. They aren't going to kick Vandy out but there is no reason for them to pay Vandy the same as Georgia either.
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There is a reason if they want to limit it to 48, which was the main condition I was working around to build the divisions.
 
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Rickd said:
The entire realignment is 100% VIEWERSHIP driven. Conference presidents have comparatively small decision making power regarding new conference additions. It is 100% about optimizing programming big games to increase viewership and charge more $$$ for commercials. The schools WANT the money and therefore have ceded the final decision making. Look no further than the B10 just announcing 2 days ago that this Fall they will have at least 9 FRIDAY NIGHT prime time B10 games. No more Valdosta State vs. SE Louisiana Tech. Will be Michigan vs USC for a nationally broadcast game and will be promoted similar to then Monday Night Football was launched. The schools are just along for the $$$ ride.
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So you agree it will be ESPN/Fox ultimately deciding this? Lol
 
calinative umstudent said:
So you agree it will be ESPN/Fox ultimately deciding this? Lol
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Networks will have certain say such as
1. Who plays who in the marquee TV timeslots
2. Hellping the conferences fill out their roster of teams from teams not currently associated with the P2.
3. Maybe subtlely help when it comes to actual conference distribution rates. Right now shares are evently distributed. In the future I can see a hang up on the media rights deals until the conferences can agree on a percentage split for their teams. I doubt it ever gets to the where teams like Vandy, Indiana, Illinois leave the conference voluntarily, but they will not get the same share forever. It might look like something like this
Top tier teams get 1.25 shares
Middle tier teams 1 share
Bottom tier teams get .75 shares.

Those are all very viable ways where the networks are going to be able to influence future decisions for sure.
 
CaneinBroward said:
No one should be shocked by anything that happens from here on out. Do you think USC and UCLA came up on the Big 10's radar without the involvement of TV execs?

I'd say it's much more believable that TV is calling the shots at this point than any conferences or schools.
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In hindsight, we should have seen USC and UCLA going to Big 10. I don’t think we anticipated the market drying up for the other 3 conference media rights so quickly (ACC, Big 12 and Pac 10). If nothing else, I think you have to give kudos for USC/UCLA working with the networks to help facilitate that escape plan. And we all know the networks help broker the 2 for 1 price with Washington and Oregon.
 
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