MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[hesskilla]

I mean, FSU’s viewership is higher. I don’t really know what else to tell you. These are facts. You may not believe them, or want to believe them, but they are the metrics used to quantify value. FSU is the most watched team in the ACC by a wide margin.

Remember, a lot of people hate FSU too. Plus their alumni base is 10x (?) more?

Yes, it’s because of their recent success. Do you think anyone was watching Alabama in 1987. Stuff changes. Miami has a higher potential than FSU when both teams are playing well. I’m not sure what part of that you don’t understand. I’m not so sure why anyone would think the TV for this one year would be the end all. TV ratings are a measure of recent success and brand power. Of course executives use them, but teams go up and down on that list. It changes. When Miami is winning, there aren’t many teams that can compete with our brand power. Our potential is higher than almost all schools.

 

[filmcane]

You had me at Bully, Rough Rider!

Post of the week at least!!

 

[AtrainCane]

I mean, FSU’s viewership is higher. I don’t really know what else to tell you. These are facts. You may not believe them, or want to believe them, but they are the metrics used to quantify value. FSU is the most watched team in the ACC by a wide margin.

Remember, a lot of people hate FSU too. Plus their alumni base is 10x (?) more?

all I’m saying is the viewership has to be affected by when your games are scheduled as well as if it’s a national broadcast. For the first 15 minutes of the A&M game I couldn’t even watch the game because it was on some secondary channel. I was watching the last 10 minutes of a game that was a blowout. I couldn’t believe they were showing some garbage time in a meaningless game while our game was going on.

the fact is national broadcast games are going to get bigger numbers. FSU played in the ACC championship game right. The whole country was watching to see if that game would affect the CFP. What number did we get for that week. Nothing.

If Miami makes the ACC championship game this year we will have a bigger viewership number than FSU for the year.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Post of the week at least!!

Bully!!!!!

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Yes, it’s because of their recent success. Do you think anyone was watching Alabama in 1987. Stuff changes. Miami has a higher potential than FSU when both teams are playing well. I’m not sure what part of that you don’t understand. I’m not so sure why anyone would think the TV for this one year would be the end all. TV ratings are a measure of recent success and brand power. Of course executives use them, but teams go up and down on that list. It changes. When Miami is winning, there aren’t many teams that can compete with our brand power. Our potential is higher than almost all schools.

We haven’t been good in 20 years. Twenty.

 

[hesskilla]

We haven’t been good in 20 years. Twenty.

I know. It makes me sad too.

 

[RightSaidFred]

Far fewer people watch Miami on TV than you and others seem to think, and that’s all that matters here.

Five time national champion…..literally nobody cares who makes these decisions. At all. Literally no one. Who turns on the TV when you play? That is IT. These guys aren’t trying to create the most powerful conference made up of members who won championships 40 years ago. It’s all about television revenue. MONEY. That’s all this is. It’s nothing about football. It’s all about MONEY. And sure, Miami has a national brand. But we’re not the TV draw that ND or FSU are. We don’t have a massive alumni base. And all these guys care about is turns TVs on to watch the product and cornering certain markets. If you get FSU, do you need Miami? Maybe, maybe not. But thinking we have some free path into either P2 conference because “we’re Miami” is incredibly silly.

FSU does have a lot of fans, and you seem to be one of them given how hard you’re caping for them.

And yes, it is about money. But the rest of your analysis is laughable.

First of all, viewership numbers are skewed toward winning teams, which means there is a bias towards teams with recent success. Miami has been terrible for a number of years but that is obviously changing.

Secondly, every football game has TWO teams, so viewership numbers are skewed by the opponents you play. People aren’t tuning in to see Duke vs Miami because nobody gives a **** about Duke. We play a boring schedule.

Finally, viewership numbers are skewed by availability. We’ve had games on Bally’s Total Fitness Network. Those games are going to get fewer eyeballs than games on ABC primetime.

TV execs understand those things and are far more sophisticated in their assessments than your laughably simplistic “viewership” numbers.

The conferences are collecting BRANDS like they’re properties in the game Monopoly. So yes, 5 national championships DOES matter because a lot of the interested public remembers them.

Oh and I didn’t even mention that Miami is in a big market, as opposed to FSU who, despite what Warchant wants you to believe, does NOT deliver you the Florida market being located at the tip of the panhandle.

 

[RightSaidFred]

^^this^^ @Rickd is one of the few guys on this board that seems to have the correct amount of testosterone and low estrogen and comments clearly on the situation and understands the position I am in. everything is fluid. just like recruiting. the rest of you pansies are too emotional and probably need to get your labs checked and see where you estrogen levels are.

If the Big 10 is interested in Miami, they need to make their case why it’s a better choice than the SEC.

Nobody in Miami is buying your scarcity argument…the fact is the BIG needs Miami more than Miami needs the BIG because, as you well know, it won’t stop at the P2, eventually those two conferences will poach from one another.

This thing ends like Highlander, there can be only one.

As it stands today, the SEC has collected far more valuable brands than the BIG. If it’s a two horse race, the SEC is far ahead already.

So if you get ND and FSU but lose Miami and UNC to the SEC, the BIG loses the long game.

To keep up and position yourself well against the SEC, you need to pull a straight flush and land ALL of the remaining brands that matter, which are ND, Miami, FSU, UNC, and Clemson.

Even after that, it arguably only puts you on par with the SEC, not ahead. Lose even one and you’re likely behind them.

Lucky for you, though, I think the straight flush is a likely scenario. Just cool your **** though…let’s see how things look after the summer.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

FSU does have a lot of fans, and you seem to be one of them given how hard you’re caping for them.

And yes, it is about money. But the rest of your analysis is laughable.

First of all, viewership numbers are skewed toward winning teams, which means there is a bias towards teams with recent success. Miami has been terrible for a number of years but that is obviously changing.

Secondly, every football game has TWO teams, so viewership numbers are skewed by the opponents you play. People aren’t tuning in to see Duke vs Miami because nobody gives a **** about Duke. We play a boring schedule.

Finally, viewership numbers are skewed by availability. We’ve had games on Bally’s Total Fitness Network. Those games are going to get fewer eyeballs than games on ABC primetime.

TV execs understand those things and are far more sophisticated in their assessments than your laughably simplistic “viewership” numbers.

The conferences are collecting BRANDS like they’re properties in the game Monopoly. So yes, 5 national championships DOES matter because a lot of the interested public remembers them.

Oh and I didn’t even mention that Miami is in a big market, as opposed to FSU who, despite what Warchant wants you to believe, does NOT deliver you the Florida market being located at the tip of the panhandle.

 

[Rickd]

If the Big 10 is interested in Miami, they need to make their case why it’s a better choice than the SEC.

Nobody in Miami is buying your scarcity argument…the fact is the BIG needs Miami more than Miami needs the BIG because, as you well know, it won’t stop at the P2, eventually those two conferences will poach from one another.

This thing ends like Highlander, there can be only one.

As it stands today, the SEC has collected far more valuable brands than the BIG. If it’s a two horse race, the SEC is far ahead already.

So if you get ND and FSU but lose Miami and UNC to the SEC, the BIG loses the long game.

To keep up and position yourself well against the SEC, you need to pull a straight flush and land ALL of the remaining brands that matter, which are ND, Miami, FSU, UNC, and Clemson.

Even after that, it arguably only puts you on par with the SEC, not ahead. Lose even one and you’re likely behind them.

Lucky for you, though, I think the straight flush is a likely scenario. Just cool your **** though…let’s see how things look after the summer.

SEC has no interest in Miami period, doesn't fit their school profile (large state school, state flagship, large student body and stadium). The media evaluations (viewership) stats have been posted ad nauseam on various "realignment" threads. FSU and Clemson have BOTH dominated the ACC by a very wide margin over the prime evaluation periods (past 10 years; pas 20 years) that have been used for media evaluations. The FSU numbers blow away Miami ... and look at the time Miami has been in the ACC without winning the Conference even once. Mario needs to have a big season with at least 10 wins, win the ACC, and win a freaking bowl game in order to TRY to lock up a seat on the Big 10 transfer list. If not ... it is going to be brutal to attempt to compete.

By 2020 the B10 will be distributing in excess of $100 million per school. The ACC, without FSU / ND / UNC / UVA ... will end up with ESPN a). Not extending the current media deal past it's expiration date of 6/27 ... any NEW deal will be dramatically less without those teams and the ACC payout per school will end up in the $30 Million per school range .... less than the current $40M. So, by 2030 there will be a $70Million per school differential between P2 and ACC media revenue per school. By that time players will be employees, and the ACC "payroll" will be attracting only a lower level player than the P2. Be part of the Big 10 ... or become a participant in a conference that will be similar to the Patriot League ... we can schedule Stetson for OOC games.

 

[Gables Cane]

Lots of on Rad right now.

Not sure why we have not joined F$U’s suit against the ACC. Perhaps, we don’t have a guaranteed landing spot as some have mentioned.

Still hoping Rad and the power brokers get us into the B1G soon. In the meantime, I will sit back and enjoy the wisdom of Rad’s JD Arteaga promotion and the return to prominence of our beloved baseball team.

 

[Caneoverhere]

Well no other ACC school has joined the lawsuit, but this " Rad and Miami are working in silence" is growing weaker with everyday that passes. Seems FSU has a landing spot and is being aggressive to get it and in doing so is getting national attention on their brand.

 

[Cane6]

I know. It makes me sad too.

Playing 3 to 5 games each year on the ACC network hasn’t really helped Miami’s viewership numbers

But when you suck you get relegated to the VH1 channels

 

[Imukat]

Have there been new actual developments or is it just Genetics said so? A look through a few Notre Dame boards (I feel so dirty) earlier found them more interested in Jac Collinsworth being demoteded than the Big Ten. This place would be jumping with insiders if it had reached the point of “Ohio State sources” telling Genetics we were moving.

I went through a ND board too and there isn’t much chatter. The only thing they really talked about was getting the old guard boosters on board. They’re worried that donations would dry up since independence is a badge of honor and pride, so they don’t think the old guys will buy in.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

View attachment 283213

I agree with pretty much everything you've posted in this thread. So I'm not saying you're wrong here. I do wonder if Sports Media Watch cherry picked this data though.

Colorado won 10 games in 2016 and Deion's first year was 2023. But between 2017-2022, they went 24-42. They were unwatchable. Even their students didn't bother.

I have a really hard time believing they averaged in 2.78 million viewers. Which then makes me question the rest of the chart.

With all the realignment talk I can't help but think we're starting to see cherry picked data to make arguments (again, not yours) look weaker/stronger than they actually are.

 

[FL Cane]

So, as usual on this thread, there’s no actual updates beyond speculation and conjecture but the mopes and bedwetters are already writing our obituary.

The worst thing you can do in a situation with no/extremely limited information is to try and extrapolate. Especially when your prior (like 75% of the people on this board) is we’ve sucked for 20 years so we should just mail it in since nothing good can happen to us. Contrary to what you all may think, there’s actually some competent people in the FB program and in admin right now. They understand that we need to leave the ACC.

 

[Rellyrell]

I agree with pretty much everything you've posted in this thread. So I'm not saying you're wrong here. I do wonder if Sports Media Watch cherry picked this data though.

Colorado won 10 games in 2016 and Deion's first year was 2023. But between 2017-2022, they went 24-42. They were unwatchable. Even their students didn't bother.

I have a really hard time believing they averaged in 2.78 million viewers. Which then makes me question the rest of the chart.

With all the realignment talk I can't help but think we're starting to see cherry picked data to make arguments (again, not yours) look weaker/stronger than they actually are.

Deion was the hottest topic during the 2023-24 Football year. He had a strong social media & TV media following. The numbers are correct, as this was the first time that Colorado was a prime time (no pun intended) product due to the hype, particularly after they started 3-0.

Again, it’s why I’ve pleaded & encouraged this fan base to step outside the Orange & Green Glass House & explore. I can unequivocally tell u before the 2023-4 season, I’ve hardly seen CU on Nat’l TV & I’m in PAC-12 country. After Deion, they were regularly featured, & the thing is ppl were tuning in either to watch them succeed or to watch them fail b/c they became a villain in many FB purist eyes.

IMHO, if they would’ve kept up their winning ways, those numbers would’ve been even higher. The viewership began to taper off as the season progressed.

 

[scane]

I agree with pretty much everything you've posted in this thread. So I'm not saying you're wrong here. I do wonder if Sports Media Watch cherry picked this data though.

Colorado won 10 games in 2016 and Deion's first year was 2023. But between 2017-2022, they went 24-42. They were unwatchable. Even their students didn't bother.

I have a really hard time believing they averaged in 2.78 million viewers. Which then makes me question the rest of the chart.

With all the realignment talk I can't help but think we're starting to see cherry picked data to make arguments (again, not yours) look weaker/stronger than they actually are.

A lot of weird active choices on that chart. Excluding FSU games during a period when they were bad, excluding games on ESPN2 and FS1 (huge inflator for the Big 12 schools), etc. That excludes most of Colorado’s pre-Deion games, in addition to the fact that PAC 12 Network isn’t Nielsen rated, leaving a very 2023 biased sample for them.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

Deion was the hottest topic during the 2023-24 Football year. He had a strong social media & TV media following. The numbers are correct, as this was the first time that Colorado was a prime time (no pun intended) product due to the hype, particularly after they started 3-0.

Again, it’s why I’ve pleaded & encouraged this fan base to step outside the Orange & Green Glass House & explore. I can unequivocally tell u before the 2023-4 season, I’ve hardly seen CU on Nat’l TV & I’m in PAC-12 country. After Deion, they were regularly featured, & the thing is ppl were tuning in either to watch them succeed or to watch them fail b/c they became a villain in many FB purist eyes.

IMHO, if they would’ve kept up their winning ways, those numbers would’ve been even higher. The viewership began to taper off as the season progressed.

But the chart says 2016-2023. One year of Deion was enough to boost the average of the 5 years prior? Its wild.

 

[RightSaidFred]

SEC has no interest in Miami period, doesn't fit their school profile (large state school, state flagship, large student body and stadium). The media evaluations (viewership) stats have been posted ad nauseam on various "realignment" threads. FSU and Clemson have BOTH dominated the ACC by a very wide margin over the prime evaluation periods (past 10 years; pas 20 years) that have been used for media evaluations. The FSU numbers blow away Miami ... and look at the time Miami has been in the ACC without winning the Conference even once. Mario needs to have a big season with at least 10 wins, win the ACC, and win a freaking bowl game in order to TRY to lock up a seat on the Big 10 transfer list. If not ... it is going to be brutal to attempt to compete.

By 2020 the B10 will be distributing in excess of $100 million per school. The ACC, without FSU / ND / UNC / UVA ... will end up with ESPN a). Not extending the current media deal past it's expiration date of 6/27 ... any NEW deal will be dramatically less without those teams and the ACC payout per school will end up in the $30 Million per school range .... less than the current $40M. So, by 2030 there will be a $70Million per school differential between P2 and ACC media revenue per school. By that time players will be employees, and the ACC "payroll" will be attracting only a lower level player than the P2. Be part of the Big 10 ... or become a participant in a conference that will be similar to the Patriot League ... we can schedule Stetson for OOC games.

SEC offered a formal invitation for Miami to join back in the 90’s. You have no idea what the SEC’s interest is. At the beginning of this thread, all the insiders were saying SEC for Miami. If that has changed, it’s because Miami prefers the BIG, not because it’s our only option.

SEC moves in silence, nobody knew Texas and Oklahoma were joining until it announced.

We’re located in the SEC footprint and we’re one of the top 5 brands remaining on the board. If the league lands Miami and another travel partner like FSU or Clemson, then they lock the BIG out of the Southeast