MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[NorthernVaginaCane]

He may be a troll, but he's OUR troll.

#aTrollForThePeople

These mods are running around worrying about people bumping threads. They need to be hog tying that old coot NoVagina n others like him and putting them in an e-cemetery.

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

Disney has been hinting at killing the espn cable channels and being purely a streaming service. I wonder how that would affect the ACC GOR.

 

[Yoyo82]

This is true..these are the 5 options of what will happen.

1, 2, and 3 either are 100% unacceptable by several schools (1) or have 0 percent chance of happening (2 and 3).

Therefore 4 and 5 are the only options.

5 is a long costly legal battle that could possibly not have clarification or resolution for 5+ years, leaving us in limbo/current state. Unless the schools that want to leave have leverage or a bargaining chip.

Their leverage/threat will be dissolving the conference.

Assuming you need 8 schools to dissolve the conference (which I'm still not sure if it's confirmed) and only 5 schools currently have invites to B1G or SEC and NOBODY would get an invite to Big12 (which is unlikely). Those 5 schools could STILL convince 3 other schools to vote to dissolve the conference by offering them some kind of ridiculous game/package deal per year if they do.

For example, let's say Pitt, NCState, and Louisville (the ones most likely to fit into the Big12. The Big12 would happily take these 3 schools. They all bring way more than at least gave of the future Big12) don't have an invite and UNC, Mia, Clemson, FSU, and ND do have invites. Those 5 schools could offer those 3 schools a combination of games/$$$ (let's say $15mil per year) to supplement them with whatever league they end up in.

Those 5 schools would happily split $45m/year to move to the SEC or B1G ($9mil per year per school).

I still think a legal battle of the GOR and paying a penalty exit fee will likely be the way things go. But only because the 5 schools that really want to leave will have a viable path/threat to dissolving the conference. And the remaining 9 schools would rather get $100mil per school and concede/compromise on the GOR rather than have the conference dissolved and get nothing.

Bottom line is: when you have an extra $200mil+ per year available to 5 schools ($40mil+ per school), they'll find a way out of the ACC.

 

[Felonious Monk]

He may be a troll, but he's OUR troll.

#aTrollForThePeople

 

[Rickd]

Just popped into the last page of this thread, does an LLM improve our chances for the Big 10 or SEC?

Yeah ... looks like things cooled on the "realignment front" so now we are discussing degrees and honor societies.

This is true..these are the 5 options of what will happen.

1, 2, and 3 either are 100% unacceptable by several schools (1) or have 0 percent chance of happening (2 and 3).

Therefore 4 and 5 are the only options.

5 is a long costly legal battle that could possibly not have clarification or resolution for 5+ years, leaving us in limbo/current state. Unless the schools that want to leave have leverage or a bargaining chip.

Their leverage/threat will be dissolving the conference.

Assuming you need 8 schools to dissolve the conference (which I'm still not sure if it's confirmed) and only 5 schools currently have invites to B1G or SEC and NOBODY would get an invite to Big12 (which is unlikely). Those 5 schools could STILL convince 3 other schools to vote to dissolve the conference by offering them some kind of ridiculous game/package deal per year if they do.

For example, let's say Pitt, NCState, and Louisville (the ones most likely to fit into the Big12. The Big12 would happily take these 3 schools. They all bring way more than at least gave of the future Big12) don't have an invite and UNC, Mia, Clemson, FSU, and ND do have invites. Those 5 schools could offer those 3 schools a combination of games/$$$ (let's say $15mil per year) to supplement them with whatever league they end up in.

Those 5 schools would happily split $45m/year to move to the SEC or B1G ($9mil per year per school).

I still think a legal battle of the GOR and paying a penalty exit fee will likely be the way things go. But only because the 5 schools that really want to leave will have a viable path/threat to dissolving the conference. And the remaining 9 schools would rather get $100mil per school and concede/compromise on the GOR rather than have the conference dissolved and get nothing.

Bottom line is: when you have an extra $200mil+ per year available to 5 schools ($40mil+ per school), they'll find a way out of the ACC.

There was some scuttlebutt re Louisville having received a Big 12 invite earlier in the week. I would think that Pitt, Louisville and NC State would be huge additions to the Big 12. Those 3 to the Big 12 along with UM, UNC, ND and maybe UVA to the Big 10, Clemson and FSU to the SEC ... game over for the ACC conference. Blowing up the ACC is the only viable route for everyone. BC and Wake end up in smaller regional conferences where they belong.

 

[Yoyo82]

Yeah ... looks like things cooled on the "realignment front" so now we are discussing degrees and honor societies.

There was some scuttlebutt re Louisville having received a Big 12 invite earlier in the week. I would think that Pitt, Louisville and NC State would be huge additions to the Big 12. Those 3 to the Big 12 along with UM, UNC, ND and maybe UVA to the Big 10, Clemson and FSU to the SEC ... game over for the ACC conference. Blowing up the ACC is the only viable route for everyone. BC and Wake end up in smaller regional conferences where they belong.

Pitt, Lou, and NCState would be better additions to the Big12 than half the schools already in the conference and would only grow the pie for everybody. The Big12 would absolutely take them.

 

[Rickd]

Pitt, Lou, and NCState would be better additions to the Big12 than half the schools already in the conference and would only grow the pie for everybody. The Big12 would absolutely take them.

Just makes sense no? You would have to believe Radakovich and the other AD's with potential homes in the Big 10 and SEC are working hard with these schools to help them decide to push for Big 12 affiliation.

 

[Shogungts]

This is true..these are the 5 options of what will happen.

1, 2, and 3 either are 100% unacceptable by several schools (1) or have 0 percent chance of happening (2 and 3).

Therefore 4 and 5 are the only options.

5 is a long costly legal battle that could possibly not have clarification or resolution for 5+ years, leaving us in limbo/current state. Unless the schools that want to leave have leverage or a bargaining chip.

Their leverage/threat will be dissolving the conference.

Assuming you need 8 schools to dissolve the conference (which I'm still not sure if it's confirmed) and only 5 schools currently have invites to B1G or SEC and NOBODY would get an invite to Big12 (which is unlikely). Those 5 schools could STILL convince 3 other schools to vote to dissolve the conference by offering them some kind of ridiculous game/package deal per year if they do.

For example, let's say Pitt, NCState, and Louisville (the ones most likely to fit into the Big12. The Big12 would happily take these 3 schools. They all bring way more than at least gave of the future Big12) don't have an invite and UNC, Mia, Clemson, FSU, and ND do have invites. Those 5 schools could offer those 3 schools a combination of games/$$$ (let's say $15mil per year) to supplement them with whatever league they end up in.

Those 5 schools would happily split $45m/year to move to the SEC or B1G ($9mil per year per school).

I still think a legal battle of the GOR and paying a penalty exit fee will likely be the way things go. But only because the 5 schools that really want to leave will have a viable path/threat to dissolving the conference. And the remaining 9 schools would rather get $100mil per school and concede/compromise on the GOR rather than have the conference dissolved and get nothing.

Bottom line is: when you have an extra $200mil+ per year available to 5 schools ($40mil+ per school), they'll find a way out of the ACC.

That thread from Hale does a very good job summing up the issues, current options and pros/cons/likelihood of each.

 

[Angry Ibis]

You are assuming Miami is going to be one of the schools getting more money which if they had this model in place for the last ~15 years, Miami would not have seen much of it.

That thread from Hale does a very good job summing up the issues, current options and pros/cons/likelihood of each.

But also leaves with none of it is possible…

 

[Shogungts]

But also leaves with none of it is possible…

I don't think he is saying that none of them are possible, but he is saying only a few of them have any shot and even those have a ton of risks involved and those risks currently outweigh the potential rewards. Given that none of schools have really tried them so far, I think it checks out.

 

[stormbrewing]

The ACC fall is a matter of when not if. The conference cannot financially compete

 

[Rellyrell]

I’ve wrecked my mind around this for the past months; I’ve done the math, scenarios, & I still don’t & can’t see how in tf the ACC signed such an albatross of TV/Media Rights deal. I literally looked at all the various contracts from other conferences, & none had this template to follow. So I’m just not sure what they were thinking, handcuffing themselves to an ever changing market for 20 yrs, ESPECIALLY when Clemson had positioned itself as a dominant football program, & FSU was a couple yrs removed as a Nat’l Champion & one of the first four participants in the CFP.

Like, this may be a greater unsolved mystery than if Tony Soprano was shot to end the series!

 

[Cane6]

I’ve wrecked my mind around this for the past months; I’ve done the math, scenarios, & I still don’t & can’t see how in tf the ACC signed such an albatross of TV/Media Rights deal. I literally looked at all the various contracts from other conferences, & none had this template to follow. So I’m just not sure what they were thinking, handcuffing themselves to an ever changing market for 20 yrs, ESPECIALLY when Clemson had positioned itself as a dominant football program, & FSU was a couple yrs removed as a Nat’l Champion & one of the first four participants in the CFP.

Like, this may be a greater unsolved mystery than if Tony Soprano was shot to end the series!

In the last week someone posted about the kick back that the prior acc commissioner got

Corruption is the only way to explain it, but how the respective schools signed off still boggles the mind

 

[Shogungts]

I’ve wrecked my mind around this for the past months; I’ve done the math, scenarios, & I still don’t & can’t see how in tf the ACC signed such an albatross of TV/Media Rights deal. I literally looked at all the various contracts from other conferences, & none had this template to follow. So I’m just not sure what they were thinking, handcuffing themselves to an ever changing market for 20 yrs, ESPECIALLY when Clemson had positioned itself as a dominant football program, & FSU was a couple yrs removed as a Nat’l Champion & one of the first four participants in the CFP.

Like, this may be a greater unsolved mystery than if Tony Soprano was shot to end the series!

The only thing I can think of is that they were afraid streaming revenue was going to go down; that and possibly ESPN told them that in order for them to build a streaming network for them (ESPN runs the ACC Network) that they needed 20 year commitment.

Now on the 1st, I can kinda understand the sentiment at the time b/c more and more people were cutting cable and there was a lot of uncertainty at the time (remember, TV streaming has come a LONG way in a pretty short time span), but if that is the case then they came to the wrong conclusion as sports revenue has skyrocketed b/c it is one of the few things that keeps customers from cutting cable. Now hindsight is 20/20, but the Big10 came to this conclusions which is why they went with the shorter route.

On the 2nd, I don't know if 1) that was an argument by ESPN or 2) if it would have any legitimacy if it was; just trying to make sense of this somehow.

 

[Ispyin]

Disney has been hinting at killing the espn cable channels and being purely a streaming service. I wonder how that would affect the ACC GOR.

No they haven’t. Do you have any idea of how much carriage revenue they still get despite the decline from basic cable fees and more?

 

[Ispyin]

In the last week someone posted about the kick back that the prior acc commissioner got

Corruption is the only way to explain it, but how the respective schools signed off still boggles the mind

Really? Ever meet most of them? Pretty easy to see

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

No they haven’t. Do you have any idea of how much carriage revenue they still get despite the decline from basic cable fees and more?

WSJ News Exclusive | ESPN Plans to Stream Flagship Channel, Eyeing Cable TV’s Demise

ESPN is laying the groundwork to sell its channel directly to cord-cutters and has begun talks with sports leagues and cable partners.

www.wsj.com

ESPN Is About To Fully Embrace Streaming, And It Could Be The Nail In The Coffin For Cable TV - SlashFilm

Is the death of the cable TV era upon us?

www.slashfilm.com

Yes, the numbers are in the 2nd article. It's a lot.

"ESPN gets an average of $9.42 from the average cable bill. Other networks? They average less than 50 cents."


At the same time, people are cord cutting at an incredible rate. At some point, the cable companies won't be able to afford paying almost $10 of every subscription to espn. So either espn will have to accept less per subscriber or the cable providers drop ESPN. Either way, espn isn't going to increase it's tv revenue the next time they are negotiating with cable person providers.

Disney knows that cable providers are going extinct, and is planning accordingly.

 

[Calinative]

This is true..these are the 5 options of what will happen.

1, 2, and 3 either are 100% unacceptable by several schools (1) or have 0 percent chance of happening (2 and 3).

Therefore 4 and 5 are the only options.

5 is a long costly legal battle that could possibly not have clarification or resolution for 5+ years, leaving us in limbo/current state. Unless the schools that want to leave have leverage or a bargaining chip.

Their leverage/threat will be dissolving the conference.

Assuming you need 8 schools to dissolve the conference (which I'm still not sure if it's confirmed) and only 5 schools currently have invites to B1G or SEC and NOBODY would get an invite to Big12 (which is unlikely). Those 5 schools could STILL convince 3 other schools to vote to dissolve the conference by offering them some kind of ridiculous game/package deal per year if they do.

For example, let's say Pitt, NCState, and Louisville (the ones most likely to fit into the Big12. The Big12 would happily take these 3 schools. They all bring way more than at least gave of the future Big12) don't have an invite and UNC, Mia, Clemson, FSU, and ND do have invites. Those 5 schools could offer those 3 schools a combination of games/$$$ (let's say $15mil per year) to supplement them with whatever league they end up in.

Those 5 schools would happily split $45m/year to move to the SEC or B1G ($9mil per year per school).

I still think a legal battle of the GOR and paying a penalty exit fee will likely be the way things go. But only because the 5 schools that really want to leave will have a viable path/threat to dissolving the conference. And the remaining 9 schools would rather get $100mil per school and concede/compromise on the GOR rather than have the conference dissolved and get nothing.

Bottom line is: when you have an extra $200mil+ per year available to 5 schools ($40mil+ per school), they'll find a way out of the ACC.

That’s what I’m saying too, we could literally bribe them to dissolve the conference. At the end of the day our actual conference exit fee is 3x the previous payout. And then the GOR applies on top of that. So if we are getting ~$40M, our buyout is supposed to be $120M - before the 13yr GOR is accounted for.

So if we took even half that buyout - so $60M per team leaving to Big/sec, that’d be $300M and divided that to 3-4 schools that will vote for us to dissolve conference, we are talking $75-$100M per school. Factor in that the B12 is likely within $5M-$10M/yr of the ACC payout already and that’d more than cover the pay differential between ACC/B12 for their entire GOR at the B12!

But option #1 imo is just forcing the unequal pay distribution and hoping that makes the non SEC/B1 schools make less than they’d make in the B12. If we can get NCSt, VTech, Pitt, etc to make ~$5M+/yr less (so on par with B12), I think there’s a good chance we’d have the votes. Because we’d have aligned incentives. Today it make no sense for a school to prefer the B12 to the ACC. But if we take some of their money away, are threatening to take the GOR to court and just in general destabilizing the ACC - I think there is a good shot.

 

[Rellyrell]

WSJ News Exclusive | ESPN Plans to Stream Flagship Channel, Eyeing Cable TV’s Demise

ESPN is laying the groundwork to sell its channel directly to cord-cutters and has begun talks with sports leagues and cable partners.

www.wsj.com

ESPN Is About To Fully Embrace Streaming, And It Could Be The Nail In The Coffin For Cable TV - SlashFilm

Is the death of the cable TV era upon us?

www.slashfilm.com

Yes, the numbers are in the 2nd article. It's a lot.

"ESPN gets an average of $9.42 from the average cable bill. Other networks? They average less than 50 cents."


At the same time, people are cord cutting at an incredible rate. At some point, the cable companies won't be able to afford paying almost $10 of every subscription to espn. So either espn will have to accept less per subscriber or the cable providers drop ESPN. Either way, espn isn't going to increase it's tv revenue the next time they are negotiating with cable person providers.

Disney knows that cable providers are going extinct, and is planning accordingly.

Hence y Disney+, Hulu are such perfect option B’s. Disney been ahead of the game on this. They lost a significant subscription base, but that was globally stemming from their lost of India’s IPL (cricket), but here in the U.S, Disney+, Hulu, & ESPN+ grew significantly last fiscal yr.

A lot of my partners have cut cable; they use Disney+ premium package, Netflix, Max, and DoFu Sports for all their needs. ****, w/ the high speed internet cost, they are paying on avg. about $100/month less than I’m paying for Direct TVs bundle package.

 

[CaneinBroward]

Are there guarantees that the networks will be paying the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12 the same payouts per team as they each continue to expand?