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College Football's Legs Race (Part 1)

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I went and looked up the 2015 recruiting class since it actually had a negative standard deviation total in athleticism and it was pretty bad, looking back.

You had some nice recruits (most of whom met their thresholds) in Jaquan, Kendrick Norton, Mike Jackson, Redwine, McIntosh, Mark Walton.

You also had some really bad results- especially on the OL, where the negative standard deviations in athleticism really came into play- Bar Milo, Hayden Mahoney, Jahair Jones, Brendan Loftus, Gauthier. Others included Charles Perry, Jerome Washington, Cager, Patchan, Gordinier, Ryan Fines, Knowles, Evan Shirrefs, James King, Terrance Henley.

A couple of places where Miami really struggled last year? OL & backup LB's. A lot of clustered position misses in that class. For instance, the lowest rated S in my entire database? Robert Knowles.
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Not surprising regarding Ohio State. I remember reading an article while Meyer was at fl and he stated that if a kid was athletic, he'd take him and figure out a position later.
 
Lance Roffers said:
I went and looked up the 2015 recruiting class since it actually had a negative standard deviation total in athleticism and it was pretty bad, looking back.

You had some nice recruits (most of whom met their thresholds) in Jaquan, Kendrick Norton, Mike Jackson, Redwine, McIntosh, Mark Walton.

You also had some really bad results- especially on the OL, where the negative standard deviations in athleticism really came into play- Bar Milo, Hayden Mahoney, Jahair Jones, Brendan Loftus, Gauthier. Others included Charles Perry, Jerome Washington, Cager, Patchan, Gordinier, Ryan Fines, Knowles, Evan Shirrefs, James King, Terrance Henley.

A couple of places where Miami really struggled last year? OL & backup LB's. A lot of clustered position misses in that class. For instance, the lowest rated S in my entire database? Robert Knowles.
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LOL ******* Knowles is just terrible at everything, poor kid
 
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Lance Roffers said:
You also had some really bad results- especially on the OL, where the negative standard deviations in athleticism really came into play- Bar Milo, Hayden Mahoney, Jahair Jones, Brendan Loftus, Gauthier. Others included Charles Perry, Jerome Washington, Cager, Patchan, Gordinier, Ryan Fines, Knowles, Evan Shirrefs, James King, Terrance Henley.
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Jesus. We took all those OL in one class, and outside of Gauthier, it was trash city.
 
Man,.. These writups are money!! However, I fear if you keep bringing solid, analytical data, and how it correlates to better athletes, better evaluations, ...more wins, ...if youre not careful, "The Don" Diaz, may find you!!
 
Lance Roffers said:
I went and looked up the 2015 recruiting class since it actually had a negative standard deviation total in athleticism and it was pretty bad, looking back.

You had some nice recruits (most of whom met their thresholds) in Jaquan, Kendrick Norton, Mike Jackson, Redwine, McIntosh, Mark Walton.

You also had some really bad results- especially on the OL, where the negative standard deviations in athleticism really came into play- Bar Milo, Hayden Mahoney, Jahair Jones, Brendan Loftus, Gauthier. Others included Charles Perry, Jerome Washington, Cager, Patchan, Gordinier, Ryan Fines, Knowles, Evan Shirrefs, James King, Terrance Henley.

A couple of places where Miami really struggled last year? OL & backup LB's. A lot of clustered position misses in that class. For instance, the lowest rated S in my entire database? Robert Knowles.
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Out of sheer curiosity, where does Brad Kaaya fit in your analysis?
 
Amazing work....goes to show elite football programs need analysts. How many does UM have on the staff?
 
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Oicu812 said:
Man,.. These writups are money!! However, I fear if you keep bringing solid, analytical data, and how it correlates to better athletes, better evaluations, ...more wins, ...if youre not careful, "The Don" Diaz, may find you!!
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Did you go to Harvard?
 
MillerTime said:
Out of sheer curiosity, where does Brad Kaaya fit in your analysis?
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Kaaya was a class of 2014 player and that year was the lowest volume of recruits to actually complete the testing. Kaaya did not complete testing. He also was injured at the NFL Combine and did not complete testing there either (you can get a good proxy of what they tested like coming out of HS with NFL Combine data based on my comparison between the results).

One of the big reasons I didn't include years prior to 2014 was because the data available was so sporadic, and while 2014 was better, it wasn't to the level of even 2015 moving forward. I didn't want to include years that were skewed by having only elite athletes in the data completing testing.
 
Don canon said:
I don’t understand anything in your article. But it’s you and all your stuff is well researched and well written. Hopefully Miami finds a way to put you on the pay roll and you can do this for a living.
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From what I have learned about Manny and from listening to him speak, there is little doubt in my mind that he is a quant/metrics/data/moneyball/callitwhateveryouwant believer.

I really do believe that there are market inefficiencies in college football that are all over the place and that are begging to be exploited. We can and should be on the leading edge of this.

Player evaluation and procurement is just one arena where this quant prism can be applied in order to make more efficient decisions and utilization of resources. Training methods, teaching methods, play calling, game pace, substitution patterns, game planning, are all areas where there is a better way than "seems like this would work", or "just doing it the way we've always done it".

I do believe that this area is something that Manny will pursue as an avenue to improve his chances of success. I hope it is, and I won't be surprised or disappointed if it's not something we hear a lot about. When you find or are working to find an edge, you don't tell the world about it.
 
DMoney said:
Awesome work, Lance.

It's interesting that WR and TE showed the least correlation to athletic testing. That seems to confirm that eye-hand coordination is the most important trait for pass-catchers.
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Also, body control. How do you measure an athlete's ability to get up in the air, and twist and contort their body while staying focused on the ball and getting their hands into position?

I would bet that eyesight is also very important for pass catchers. The faster and more accurately an individual can perceive the position of the ball and its velocity and trajectory, the longer their body has to respond.
 
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g8rh8rMD said:
From what I have learned about Manny and from listening to him speak, there is little doubt in my mind that he is a quant/metrics/data/moneyball/callitwhateveryouwant believer.

I really do believe that there are market inefficiencies in college football that are all over the place and that are begging to be exploited. We can and should be on the leading edge of this.

Player evaluation and procurement is just one arena where this quant prism can be applied in order to make more efficient decisions and utilization of resources. Training methods, teaching methods, play calling, game pace, substitution patterns, game planning, are all areas where there is a better way than "seems like this would work", or "just doing it the way we've always done it".

I do believe that this area is something that Manny will pursue as an avenue to improve his chances of success. I hope it is, and I won't be surprised or disappointed if it's not something we hear a lot about. When you find or are working to find an edge, you don't tell the world about it.
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Thank you for the explanation!!!!
 
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GladeCane said:
Great analysis of Lance's analysis.
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In the movie "Money Ball" they had this nerd character (Lance not saying you) who analyzed baseball players and their stats and how it correlated to performance. The GM started to take notice when his recommendations started coming true.

I believe Lance is unto something here.
 
The Defensive listing by position is kinda stupid imo. There should only be DL, EDGE, LB, CB, S. Not DT, DE, ILB, OLB, etc. EDGE is an entirely different type of player, and they can be DE or OLB depending on the position. Just like a 34 DE doesn't need any of the traits of a true edge rusher.

If you break it up the correct way, it would be completely obvious that when projecting EDGE success, 3 Cone Drill and Broad Jump (along with age/production) are by far the most important factors. If a EDGE guy has an elite 3-cone drill and great broad jump, he is MUCH more likely to get a lot of sacks in his career than an normal edge with just a good 40/bench results or something.

Also OLIne, the Shuttle is definitely the most important for interior OLine. But the jumps are important to show their exlosion as well.

I think its pretty obvious that 3Cone, both the Jumps, and then shuttle are by far the most important results of the combine. I mean H/W matters too, but BMI is mainly a factor in assessing whether the player is an injury risk. Pretty sure RBs under like 30 bmi generally get injured at a higher rate
 
Its not so much about your play but your test scores. That's what I'm noticing at all these combines and 7on7. Big focus on nfl combine workouts. They believe if a kid test good, he's good enough for a scholly once at the program coaches job to coach him up.

Nice job OP.
 
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