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Canes bs Tar Heels - Game 2 - 7pm, Bally/ACCNX

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scane said:
Palm at roughly the same point last season: 9 App 16.2 IP 26K/3BB 6 H 2 R .109 OBA 1.08 ERA 7 SV
The Angel of Death: 9 App 13.0 IP 23K/2BB 3 H 0 R .049 OBA 0.00 ERA 6 SV
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Scane how many games does UM have to win in the ACC to host a regional in your opinion?
 
CTCANE said:
Scane how many games does UM have to win in the ACC to host a regional in your opinion?
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RPIs in the league are back to normal this year. 18 usually does the trick give or take a game. We needed that extra win in 2019 but hosted in 2012 (and shouldn’t have) with just 16.

Looking at our remaining schedule 18 feels like a good number if you want to host. We have three “should win” series left for any team that hopes to host. Sweep one of them or win tomorrow that leaves you at 13. Other series are high RPI opponents Virginia, GT, FSU, and ND. Winning one of those and avoiding sweeps gets you to 18 and 7-3 in ACC series. That feels like roughly a hosting resume. The only trap is that we end with three difficult ones. Beat UVA and lose those other three and we could look like we’re blowing a tire down the stretch to the committee.
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
That’s also the frustrating part. We give away so many at bats. There’s too much talent for that to happen twice a week, for 6 innings at a time.
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That’s a fair point although I will say there’s a grinding aspect to our approach even during those stretches that seems to wear on opposing staffs. I definitely did not enjoy the world record for popups we were attempting midgame though.
 
CTCANE said:
Scane how many games does UM have to win in the ACC to host a regional in your opinion?
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I’ll chime in bc I was looking at this scenario this afternoon. I broke it down by likely conference hosts. Of course some of these will drop off and maybe 1-2 more will emerge. You also have to factor in location. The committee loves having a couple of northern and west coast regionals (Gonzaga). Even if one of those isn’t as deserving as another southeast team.

Bottom line is you gotta finish top 4 to have a shot, unless chaos ensues. If you’re 5th you better have a great ACCT. We are scheduled for 30 games. I’d say 19-11 gets us there.

ACC - 4-6 - FSU, GT, ND, UNC, Miami, UVA, Louisville all in it. NC State dark horse.

SEC - 4-6 - Tenn, Ark, UGA, Vandy, UF all right there. Miss St and Ole Miss if they get hot.

Big 12 3-4 - Texas, T Tech, TCU, OSU all in it

Big 10 1 - Maryland right now. Mich and Ohio St dark horses

PAC 12 2-3 - Oregon and Zona. Oregon St can get there.

Mid Majors 1-2 - Gonzaga, DBU. Sleeper like La Tech will need lots of help, but they did sweep their midweek games against LSU
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
I’ll chime in bc I was looking at this scenario this afternoon. I broke it down by likely conference hosts. Of course some of these will drop off and maybe 1-2 more will emerge. You also have to factor in location. The committee loves having a couple of northern and west coast regionals (Gonzaga). Even if one of those isn’t as deserving as another southeast team.

Bottom line is you gotta finish top 4 to have a shot, unless chaos ensues. If you’re 5th you better have a great ACCT. We are scheduled for 30 games. I’d say 19-11 gets us there.

ACC - 4-6 - FSU, GT, ND, UNC, Miami, UVA, Louisville all in it. NC State dark horse.

SEC - 4-6 - Tenn, Ark, UGA, Vandy, UF all right there. Miss St and Ole Miss if they get hot.

Big 12 3-4 - Texas, T Tech, TCU, OSU all in it

Big 10 1 - Maryland right now. Mich and Ohio St dark horses

PAC 12 2-3 - Oregon and Zona. Oregon St can get there.

Mid Majors 1-2 - Gonzaga, DBU. Sleeper like La Tech will need lots of help, but they did sweep their midweek games against LSU
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Way too early to start this, so much can change
 
scane said:
RPIs in the league are back to normal this year. 18 usually does the trick give or take a game. We needed that extra win in 2019 but hosted in 2012 (and shouldn’t have) with just 16.

Looking at our remaining schedule 18 feels like a good number if you want to host. We have three “should win” series left for any team that hopes to host. Sweep one of them or win tomorrow that leaves you at 13. Other series are high RPI opponents Virginia, GT, FSU, and ND. Winning one of those and avoiding sweeps gets you to 18 and 7-3 in ACC series. That feels like roughly a hosting resume. The only trap is that we end with three difficult ones. Beat UVA and lose those other three and we could look like we’re blowing a tire down the stretch to the committee.
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This is the key as we'll always get screwed whereas FSU and the SEC will get every benefit of the doubt. But as TheRichtShow said, there's a lot of baseball left. Keep winning series, and like the basketball team has done, be playing your best baseball in May.
 
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None of this matters. Just give Tennessee the trophy right now. Lead the country in era and homers. 22-1 on the season. Go to #1 Ole Miss - Friday win 12-1, Saturday 10-3. Kid that throws 104mph isn’t even their best reliever - he came in for mop up duty when they were up 8-0 in the 8th.
 
Ajcane8 said:
None of this matters. Just give Tennessee the trophy right now. Lead the country in era and homers. 22-1 on the season. Go to #1 Ole Miss - Friday win 12-1, Saturday 10-3. Kid that throws 104mph isn’t even their best reliever - he came in for mop up duty when they were up 8-0 in the 8th.
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Teams that win with the long ball tend to get neutralized in Omaha.
 
WanderFranco said:
Teams that win with the long ball tend to get neutralized in Omaha.
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I know man, I was being a little facetious. They’re really good though. It is impressive to sweep #1 at their yard and they have a ton of arms. Vandy this weekend should be fun to watch.

But you’re right. The alleys at TD eat homers unlike at Rosenblatt.
 
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Excessive Bumping
@WanderFranco

I agree that Gino's brand involves needing luck in order to host. Of course, even when he gets a lucky break, i.e. the 2021 Gators falling apart, he doesn't do much with it.
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It's on brand for you to stick to your one note even when it's becoming more and more likely that it would take bad luck for us *not* to host.
 
Hale Fieldhouse said:
"Personal attacks"

lol

The moderators around here are anything if not predictable.
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Saying that the #17 team needs a little luck in order to host isn't an insult. Everyone in that same cluster needs some bounces. They can't all host.
 
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