Bruce Brown is a Piston

[tcgrad1014]

As I posted earlier, if you break it down specifically between 21 and 22, there have been twenty-four 21yo players drafted (in the 1st round) in the past 5 years, compared to seventeen 22yo players (a not insignificant 30% difference). A 21yo therefore has a greater percentage chance of being drafted in the first round than a 22yo. Plus Brown turns 23 in August of next year, so he would be an old 22yo. This is not rocket science.

Bringing up the 2nd round or average draft position that includes the 2nd round is unnecessarily confusing the issue. You are either a 1st round pick with a guaranteed 7 figure contract, or essentially a restricted free agent.

In response to your other question, if you are going to be a 2nd round pick in 2018 and a 2nd round pick in 2019 (as Brown Jr. likely would have been had he stayed), of course you go in 2018 and have an extra year of making money playing basketball (D-League, Europe etc.).

 

[Consigliere]

This is beyond a waste of time. You're not even arguing the opposite side, you're just pivoting. Can you stick to what is actually asked?

As I posted earlier, if you break it down specifically between 21 and 22, there have been twenty-four 21yo players drafted (in the 1st round) in the past 5 years, compared to seventeen 22yo players (a not insignificant 30% difference). A 21yo therefore has a greater percentage chance of being drafted in the first round than a 22yo.

1. This is incorrect, as I already explained.

If you wanted to prove that a 22 YO has less of a chance of getting drafted PERIOD or only the first round(over a 21 YO). You would need to show that ____________ 21 YOs entered the draft and _________ 21 YOs were drafted and this would be a higher % than _______________ 22 YOs entering the draft and ____________ 22 YOs getting drafted.

So again, this is wrong. You haven't showed this either.

2. Please note: I am not saying it isn't true, I am just saying you haven't demonstrated that as such. I just want to see the data for what was actually posed.

Bringing up the 2nd round or average draft position that includes the 2nd round is unnecessarily confusing the issue. You are either a 1st round pick with a guaranteed 7 figure contract, or essentially a restricted free agent. .

No. It doesn't. The question always was shows me some data showing a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower, he should stay.

Now, if you want to change the argument that more 21 YOs get drafted in the first round. That is a different story but I am not arguing that point. I am asking something different.

Do you understand that I am asking something different?

In response to your other question, if you are going to be a 2nd round pick in 2018 and a 2nd round pick in 2019 (as Brown Jr. likely would have been had he stayed), of course you go in 2018 and have an extra year of making money playing basketball (D-League, Europe etc.).

1. You don't know what is going to happen if you stay. For all you know, you can tear an ACL. You can be All-ACC. You can regress even further.

2. There is no guarantee he will be signed in the NBA this season or Europe. We all know there are NO guarantees in the second round.

3. I asked you to ignore any data. Stick to what actually happened.

4. If your point is that Bruce will unlikely improve and probably be drafted again in the second round. So take a chance and try to make the money today, that is fine.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

No. It doesn't. The question always was shows me some data showing a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower, he should stay.

Its funny that you keep going back to this strawman.

Its okay to admit you are just upset because you wanted Bruce to stay. He made by far the best decision for himself.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

Separate question (to anyone that cares, which may be no one). Let's ignore any and all data, let's just look at what happened.

1. You will be 22 YOs before the next draft.

2. You missed a large % of games after your solid freshman season.

3. You regressed.

4. Your injury was not significant, in the sense that it will not hurt your future performance.

5. You will be drafted (in this draft) in the middle of the second round (41-50).

Do you stay or go? Keep in mind, the difference is you know you will be a second round pick.

This is clear as day that you should go early and take advantage of NBA level trainers and medical teams while making some money.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

Just so you know:

1. The poster's own data demonstrated there was NO significant difference. Here is that post...



Are you aware they only show a difference of 4 spots in the average draft position between a 21 YO v. 22 YO. You saw that right? 4 spots? Did you notice that it was ONLY 4 spots? So there is the data that there is no significant improvement.

2. That same poster, since you clearly read their posts, said your 5 years (which you choose as the guideline) was too long. Here is that post...



Remember, you choose the 5 year guideline. Here is that post...



Even in your 5 year guideline, the difference between 21 YOs and 22 YOs drafted was ONE PLAYER.

3. Finally, I am not disputing that an older player (in general) may be less appealing than a younger player. If you're comparing a 22 YO to a 19 YO, there could be a tremendous difference. The thing is, we're not comparing 19 v. 22.

Like I said, if you or the other poster, can come up with actual data demonstrating a significant difference, I'd love to read it. If not...Bruce was drafted at 41. I don't see the harm in coming back after you regressed and missed a lot of games.

Keep the names straight... I never specified a 5 year guideline...

The data has been shown to you. Sticking your head in the sand doesnt mean it just disappears.

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

This is beyond a waste of time. You're not even arguing the opposite side, you're just pivoting. Can you stick to what is actually asked?



1. This is incorrect, as I already explained.

If you wanted to prove that a 22 YO has less of a chance of getting drafted PERIOD or only the first round(over a 21 YO). You would need to show that ____________ 21 YOs entered the draft and _________ 21 YOs were drafted and this would be a higher % than _______________ 22 YOs entering the draft and ____________ 22 YOs getting drafted.

So again, this is wrong. You haven't showed this either.

2. Please note: I am not saying it isn't true, I am just saying you haven't demonstrated that as such. I just want to see the data for what was actually posed.



No. It doesn't. The question always was shows me some data showing a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower, he should stay.

Now, if you want to change the argument that more 21 YOs get drafted in the first round. That is a different story but I am not arguing that point. I am asking something different.

Do you understand that I am asking something different?




1. You don't know what is going to happen if you stay. For all you know, you can tear an ACL. You can be All-ACC. You can regress even further.

2. There is no guarantee he will be signed in the NBA this season or Europe. We all know there are NO guarantees in the second round.

3. I asked you to ignore any data. Stick to what actually happened.

4. If your point is that Bruce will unlikely improve and probably be drafted again in the second round. So take a chance and try to make the money today, that is fine.

I can't find the graph, but when Brogdan was getting drafted ESPN did a whole analysis on this. Brog is 23 so it is not the exact same thing, but the data was showing that after 21 there was a big drop off in how high a player will be drafted. Also, if you where to find a list of all the 21 year olds and all of the 22 year olds to enter the draft it really wouldn't prove anything. It would most likely hurt your argument because of the massive amount of 22 year olds seniors who just enter the draft because it can't hurt even though they don't have a good shot of getting into the NBA.

 

[Consigliere]

Its funny that you keep going back to this strawman.

Either you don't know what that means or you can't read.

 

[Consigliere]

Keep the names straight... I never specified a 5 year guideline...

Wow. You really would benefit from a reading comprehension class. You're the one that said 5 years is TOO long. Here is your post...

Things in the NBA change fast, the draft 5 years ago doesnt reflect what a current draft looks like.

That was you above.

TC suggested 5 years with his data. You said 5 years is too long (to me). TC suggested it. You told me it was too long. I have everyone correct.

Seriously, can you read?

 

[Consigliere]

This is clear as day that you should go early and take advantage of NBA level trainers and medical teams while making some money.

There is no guarantee he makes the NBA this year. If he gets a contract then perhaps he can do all of that.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

There is no guarantee he makes the NBA this year. If he gets a contract then perhaps he can do all of that.

Every single player that did not get a contract that was drafted in the second round in the last 2 years was a Euro draft and stash players. There is no reason to believe that Bruce wont get a contract other than your general saltiness towards the man.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

Wow. You really would benefit from a reading comprehension class. You're the one that said 5 years is TOO long. Here is your post...



That was you above.

TC suggested 5 years with his data. You said 5 years is too long (to me). TC suggested it. You told me it was too long. I have everyone correct.

Seriously, can you read?

You were responding to me... are you sure you can read?

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

Either you don't know what that means or you can't read.

Straw man - Wikipedia

Educate your self.

 

[Consigliere]

Every single player that did not get a contract that was drafted in the second round in the last 2 years was a Euro draft and stash players. There is no reason to believe that Bruce wont get a contract other than your general saltiness towards the man.

Again reading. All I said is that there is "There is no guarantee he makes the NBA this year." So, if he goes to Europe, that would be an example of not being in the NBA.

Please learn to read.

 

[Consigliere]

Straw man - Wikipedia

Educate your self.

So you can't read. The point has been the same the whole time.

That is comical by the way...

Educate "your self".

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

Again reading. All I said is that there is "There is no guarantee he makes the NBA this year." So, if he goes to Europe, that would be an example of not being in the NBA.

Please learn to read.

Yeah because you are a pessimist. A realist can see that historically there is no reason to think he wont get a contract.

You just keep looking for reasons to down on Brown making the absolute best decision for his career.

Also try your hand with that reading comprehension. A Euro draft and stash player is a player who was already playing in Europe when they are drafted, not a college player who is forced to go to Europe because the team with his draft rights wont sign him. Brown can not by definition be a Euro draft and stash player.

I guess we should continue to just ignore the statistics because you cant come to grips with your saltiness over his decision.

 

[Consigliere]

Remember boys and girls...

Educate your self.

Yeah because you are a pessimist. A realist can see that historically there is no reason to think he wont get a contract.

No it just shows you can't read.

 

[Consigliere]

You just keep looking for reasons to down on Brown making the absolute best decision for his career.

I am not. I just don't think it was the best decision. You disagree, big deal. They're opinions.

I guess we should continue to just ignore the statistics because you cant come to grips with your saltiness over his decision.

The statistics that show that there is no significant difference. I haven't ignored them. A difference of 4 spots. 4 spots.

Remember, educate "your self".

 

[Consigliere]

Every single player that did not get a contract that was drafted in the second round in the last 2 years was a Euro draft and stash players.

Every single player? [Keep in mind we don't know what will happen with the 2018 draft yet in terms of earning a contract]

2017 Draft

Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga)

Jonah Bolden (UCLA)

Jaron Blossomgame (Clemson)

These guys were playing in America. They were drafted after playing in America. They were drafted and didn't get an NBA contract.

 

[tcgrad1014]

This is such a bizarre debate. Everybody is saying the sky is blue except one person saying it's green.

 

[tcgrad1014]

How is someone supposed to get data on how many 21yos compared to 22yos entered their names in the nba draft? It's probably hundreds every year. You've set an impossible standard to be proven wrong. The clear evidence is that the older you get the less likely you are to be a first round pick (the only round that matters). Everybody knows this. I'm not sure how you're missing this obvious fact or choosing to ignore it.