I made my argument. Refute what I said or don’t bother. You’re the guy that believed there were no such things as bags, so it’s not like you have this great track record for wisdom.
Make your argument.
You're the guy that scoffs at data, and doesn't reply to my post directly because you're afraid of me. I'm not going to rehash the whole stars are important debate. The data is in that other thread. A team getting one more 4 star or 5 star than us will make a difference. That's an extra potential NFL caliber player.
Wait, what?
I’m afraid of you.
Have you lost your mind?
You’re delusional.
I just didn’t want to clutter the response with a long quote.
I don’t scoff at data. I scoff at the misuse of data. Especially soft data. Any data whose foundation is subjective is by its nature soft, and subject from the very beginning to a wide margin of error. That margin of error is paradoxically remedied by a larger numbers of samples. Because of this variability, there is significance in ranking classes, but not so much that a few places in the ranking should have any measurable impact on long term outcomes over the long term.
As I stated previously, the most important thing is highly rated classes over a period of time.
You've often not replied to me directly so I don't get a notification.
If data says that a 5 star player is drafted 74% of the time, you can calculate the expected value of your class by adding up the total likely number of expected NFL players. This larger amount of past data is what we're using to give value to current and future classes. There is variability and subjectivity in this and each individual class, but I'm not looking at that for this class. I'm using previous data and extrapolating it to this class to make an inference that this class likely has fewer NFL players than the teams ranked ahead of us right now. That's how you can discern between classes with many elite players.
However, looking at our class and emphatically stating it is undoubtedly a top 3 class is ignorant. The only way to say we have a top 3 class is to objectively compare classes with subjective rankings, which fans of message board are somehow unlikely to do. To do that you'd need a team of evaluators ranking each player, awarding points to each player, and calculating teams' class values. That is what recruiting sites do. It's not perfect, but stating we have a top 3 class is ignoring the players of other classes. It's really hard for any of us to look at a group of players and know definitively that ours is top 3. Sure, maybe it ends up being an actual top 3 class in retrospect, but at least 247 and others are making an effort to quantify the subjective system, and based on the data from the other thread, it's working.
It is subjective, but based on the data it is pretty accurate. Because of that there is more confidence behind class rankings. If a team gets an extra 5 star every cycle they can expect about 3 extra NFL draftees on their team if they stay 4 years.
And there is no question that we need good classes every year. If we get a top 6 class every year we'll win a lot of championships.
