Awsi Dooger
Junior
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2012
- Messages
- 2,662
Yes, we are three touchdowns away from being the talk of the country. Not three touchdowns sprinkled throughout the prior games. Three touchdowns added to our power rating every week. That's literally what it would take.
Otherwise we're just a mediocre team that happened to win the close games. Nobody would care. Nobody is going to be fooled. It would be like the paper mache season in which we were 7-0 and then traveled to Tallahassee as 22 point underdogs.
When the power rating is this low it means the talent level simply isn't there. Miami is now rated 27 points below Alabama and Ohio State in Jeff Sagarin's power ratings. Contrast to Alabama in Nick Saban's first season when he went 7-6. That season is often mocked as a debacle. Meanwhile Alabama was generally within 10-12 points of the high rated team in the power ratings all season, and finished only 14 points behind the top rated team despite that 7-6 record.
I remember because I follow this type of thing all year. It is a terrific dose of reality as opposed to being mesmerized by the won/loss record. Alabama may have been losing but they weren't that far away from national relevance. But what has quietly happened over the past decade is that the elite programs in the country have been monopolizing talent. Those handful of teams have separated. Ohio State and Alabama now have power ratings in the 102 range on Sagarin. For reference, the awesome Canes team of 2001 finished at 106 power rating. I will post that link here:
NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
Current NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
www.usatoday.com
The 2002 Miami team was never rated nearly as highly. It was obviously vulnerable throughout. That's why I was scared to death of Ohio State the nightmare blue collar opponent. 2002 Miami finished with a power rating 11 points below 2001:
NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
Current NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
www.usatoday.com
But now notice what happens. Instead of top college teams in the 95 range in Sagarin's power ratings, the elite programs begin to move closer to 2001 Miami. The 2011 Alabama team finished with a power rating of 104:
NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
Current NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
www.usatoday.com
BTW, I'm using Sagarin just because he is well known and easily linked. But the bottom line is the same regardless of which power ratings are sourced.
The great Clemson and Alabama teams of 2016 each finished above 105 on Sagarin, or just a shade below 2001 Miami:
NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
Current NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
www.usatoday.com
Last season Clemson finished at 103 and Alabama at 101:
NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
Current NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY
www.usatoday.com
***
The top teams have gotten considerably better. That is what I am saying. I have followed these ratings for 25+ years, when they were first posted in USA Today in the Tuesday print editions. I remember when college teams with ratings of 93 to 95 would top the list. Not anymore. In every season since 2013 at least one team has finished above 100. Yes, Miami could still reach championship level but it would require lofting all the way back to 2001 level, or nearby.
The 2019 Canes currently have a power rating of 75.38
In other words, we are theoretically 31 points worse than the 2001 team
