I guess this is where I don't get the theory that Lane took over a juggernaut in USC. When Lane took over USC, they were trending down from being "elite." They were still a good program. I mean, they finished 9-4 the previous year, which is not bad, but certainly not great. Don't know how Lane really had any momentum when he took over seeing that UCS was not elite anymore and were now on probation and under sanctions.
I don't know the real reason Lane was let go. I think he must have rubbed somebody the wrong way. He fared pretty good the first two seasons and had a winning record, although they were ineligible to play in a bowl game due to sanctions. The 3rd season was where he really laid an egg, going 7-6, and losing the bowl game. I think that 2012 season was the initial season the reduction of scholarships started. They were also capped at 75 player roster for 3 year time span from 2012-2014. I might be wrong on this, so if somebody has more accurate information on the impact of the probation, feel free to correct me.
So, Lane was fired in year 4 after starting the season 3-2. USC was in the middle of probation and down 20 scholarships. I just don't see how his firing was all about wins and losses. USC actually finished that season 10-4 and won their bowl game. I'm not saying USC would have finished 10-4 if Lane had coached that entire season. Maybe the admin had had enough of his arrogance and attitude? I don't know. We do know that Coker never had to deal with any sanctions and probation and got worse every year which finally led to his firing, despite being handed the best college football team ever.
OK, I'm going to simplify this, because I cannot reproduce hours worth of conversations I've had with actual USC alums over the past 20 years.
You (like crossover) are overly focused on "record" as an indication of "how good" or "how bad" a team is at any given moment.
I'm not sure where you get this "trending down from being elite". Sure, they were 9-4 under the heat and distraction of an NCAA investigation. But the year before they went 12-1. You had SEVEN YEARS IN A ROW where they finished AT LEAST #4. And then ONE TIME Carroll goes 9-4 and that constitutes a "trend down from being elite"?
No sir.
Also, I fully reject the crossover "one metric" model for analyzing things. Anyone who went to USC or who has followed USC closely can tell you what USC is when they are "on" and what happens when they are not on. And Carroll had re-established a DOMINANT position for USC on the west coast. That's the truth, no matter if he dropped a couple extra games in 2009 that he didn't ordinarily drop.
Again...the alums...the recruiting...the resources...the celebrity...the dominance...the expectations...all of the things that makes USC "special" when they are on top of the world...that's what was there when Carroll left and Kiffin took over. All of those things did not suddenly disappear in ONE 9-4 season (that came right after a 12-1 season).
As for Lane being let go, again, I beg of you...do NOT subscribe to the crossover "one metric" model. It clearly was not about Ws and Ls. USC knew that there would be struggles due to the sanctions. There were a LOT of internal problems, and I was hearing about them regularly because one of my friends & co-workers was a former USC athlete. Kiffin lost the respect and control of the team, it's just that simple. And the USC administration not only did not have confidence that he COULD get it back, but also whether he was even willing to make the effort. THAT is why he was left on the tarmac, he wouldn't even do the bare minimum to try to get things back under control.
Nobody denies that "sanctions" are a part of any reasonable explanation for lack of success. But Kiffin made it ALL about that. He denied that any of the other team-culture issues were the problem. He refused to make changes and get help for what was beginning to spiral out of control.
And no matter what crossover tries to tell you...the vast majority of USC fans are still sore about Kiffin. Not because he "betrayed" USC the way Lane betrayed Oakland and Tennessee. But because the USC fans WANTED to believe in and root for Lane, but his ego and arrogance made it impossible for that to happen. And the problems that began on Lane's watch carried over for YEARS and took down multiple coaches who were trying to stop the bleeding.