2024 OL Isendre “Papa” Ahfua

[RVACane]

Lets say we have a Recruiting budget where we want to spend $1M on a WR.
School B has a budget where they spend $500K, School C has a budget of $1.2M, school D has a budget of $350K, School E has a budget of $600k.

We want 3 studs, School B is going all in for 1 stud, School C wants 2, School D only wants 1, and School E wants 3 as well but where they spend 50% on one, and 25% on the remaining two... . Lets say there are 7 Elite WRs in this recruiting class.

On average if each school got 3 WRs, We would be spending $333k/player, B would be spending $166k/player, C spending $400k/player, D spending $116k/player, and E spending 200k/player.

But where do those players actually go? It isn't based on the average, which would have us as far and away 2nd in this example.

The top 3 guys would choose School B and C. While school B is spending $500K all on one guy, School C is spending say 60% of their $1.2M budget on top guy and 40% on second guy ($480k).
4th best is going to be a tough choice between US and School D who is going all in with their $350k on one guy, whereas we're trying to offer $333k...
5th-7th best will be a competition between US and School E Who is offering slightly less at $300k for their top guy...

See how us at even 2nd best NIL fund could lost out not just to teams with the higher fund, but the teams with the lower fund choosing to go all in for less players. If WE DID that, it would be non-stop complaining on here about how many 3 stars we are taking - oh wait there already is all that. Keep in mind as it currently stands in real life we have an elite WR already committed, another very highly rated one, and are currently going after another 2 5star WRs...

I get this and it could be happening. But then we are not properly funded or properly allocating. We’re not doing whatever we did last year that worked or were just not in the same position compared to others as we were last year.

Either way, we’re not getting it done with money and while I can be unhappy about last year’s record and all, if we’re not funding NIL or not using it properly then how can I blame Mario for that? Napier didn’t win 6 games in his crap scheme last year and suddenly become a stud recruiter while our guy became a lesser recruiter. The money’s there behind Napier and it’s being allocated to win.

 

[RVACane]

Great point. So I guess my next question is, maybe the staff is over prioritizing and throwing money at players they don't have a real shot at (Simmons, Stewart, Stone, Ellis Robinson, etc.) instead of giving more to the ones they do ie. Barney, Mccoy, Chris Cole, someone like Jamari Howard, etc.

Or are we just not paying, period?

I don’t know man but this is a possibility. The allocations are not where they should be so we’re losing to Nebraska with Barney because we have others as higher allocated priorities when that’s a top guy for them.

Others are getting it done so we’re failing somewhere between funds and allocations.

Someone said we’re not spending at all, I think @M3N - He can address that one. I’m as perplexed as everyone else.

 

[Odysseus]

Exactly something ain't right, Mario been recruiting this o-linemen for several years plus have a poly connection here but wants to go to random Texas a&m that just started recruiting him

 

[JHallCanes]

Months ago Cribby told CiS to temper expectations with recruiting. He just provided no more further context but we now know there are obviously complications behind the scenes. I just wanna see progress on the field and everything else should fall into place.

I don’t want to speak for him but he is one of about 3 people I listen to in recruiting and share info off the boards from time to time

The overall sentiment I got was everyone was in wait and see mode. Like this could go really well or it could get bad quickly but we had to get through all those massive June and July visits to really see

So people that were overly optimistic or overly pessimistic weren’t exactly on the right track at the time in my opinion

But it hasn’t gone our way to say the least but at least the vibe I got was it was possible to have a really great summer again but it was too shaky to say so

 

[Odin]

This kid is #1 OL priority for this class.No other OLineman is even close.This was the one we had to have.The other 3 or 4 OL could have been cheap projects but this was the guy we could not lose.

 

[Brains]

Right now the only school we are beating on the trail is his “I Promise School”

This is so well-timed.

 

[hoops156]

Would love to know how Mario feels about the people who begged him to leave a great situation at Oregon now are not willing to spend enough to get him top talent.

esp now that Oregon is actually in the big 10

 

[TRick72]

I'm not going to put all the weight in the world on one recruiting class, when this is a multi year rebuild trying to erase 20 years of being bad.
I think of rebuilds as 1) Lose big but reset the foundation 2) Lose Close setting the culture up long-term 3) Win Close 4) Win Big.
And that's not just W/L that I'd be looking at. I'm talking how we win or lose. It's possible we only win 8 but look good doing it (blowing out lesser teams, and maybe loosing close to good teams).. And if we win 10, maybe we don't look as good, and shouldn't expect a linearly increasing W/L% the following year....

I think we will be good this season. I'm very confident in the direction this program is heading. But will 8 wins or 9 or even 10 make recruits completely forget about 20 years and us suddenly be in top 3 recruiting class territory? Not imo. I think the two year average of how last years OLine+POrtal class and this years class is shaping out is NET GREAT, and right where we should expect/want to be. I think for the next year or two stacking 5 star after 5 star at the same position, is an overexpectation, particularly when they are players that should be 2-3 year starters. We just aren't at that Bama/UGA/ or even tOSU level of success yet. Its just the reality. I expect us to win and lose recruiting battles against top programs. But overall I think there is a CLEAR upwards trajectory, that will see us going from a fringe top 20-25 program over the last 2 decades to a clear top 15 program, and then from there we move our way into clear stable top 10-5 range by 2026.

The only thing I am concerened about and the aspect that I believe can turn this rebuild into a quick or long one is what happens at QB. Is Jacurri going to become decently accurate? Is Emory the guy? Are we going to land an elite transfer next year to give those guys another year?... If we land an elite long-term QB I think we will be able in CFP sooner than later.

However I still don't think we're going to consistently be a top 3 Recruiting program. We're going to get a lot of 3 star developmental guys along the way. I think most years will be 7-10, with a couple sprinklings of top 5 and maybe just top 13 if the class is smaller...

I am high on the season and agree with a lot of your post. However, no one reasonable is expecting to land 5 Star on top of 5 star and a top 3 class much less consistently. Like you, most of us do expect to consistently land within the top 10 especially when it comes to average per recruit (APR). Right now our class is at #18 and our APR is at #20. Meanwhile most of the top guys we were told we had a good chance with are trending the wrong way and our most trusted insider just said we’re not willing to “overpay” for our top targets.

Fans are expressing concern due to the reality that this class may not land within the top 15. While the previous 2 class were a NET GREAT adding HS class outside the top 15 this year would be a NET NEGATIVE. As for 3 Star developmental we all expect them but when you have twice as many 3 stars (13) as Blue chips (6) with D$ saying to keep an eye out for a guy ranked 1596 and offers going out today for unranked international guys. Meanwhile 3 of those top 6 are flirting with other programs with others talking about taking visits. That’s just not a formula for success.

Can it change? Sure but just “more wins” isn’t going to do it. Eventually we are going to have to “overpay” for some of our top targets.

 

[TRick72]

You can sell 8-9 wins with a bowl game win.

Also, style matters. If you can win against atm and pull out a W against **** school up in the panhandle or keep it really close you can sell the future. You can say you can compete in the future if you sign with us to kids.

Last year FSPOO who everyone has been drooling over had 10 wins and finished with the #20 HS class. This year with rumors of them handing out above market NIL deals to players like Bolden they’re currently #4. Meanwhile, TCU played for the NC and finished #26 with a current class of #51.

Obviously I expect to perform better than TCU with a good season but 1 good season isn’t the panacea most think. Meanwhile UF, ATM and OU all had really bad season yet recruiting strong.

 

[Page305]

Or... not overpay now, win on the field this year, and not have to overpay in the future either....

Lol.... It never is and never will be that simple.
At least not for us

 

[PRcane787]

 

[TRick72]

Crazy talk? I beg to differ.

It’s rationale and prudent. Look…I get that there is an element of over exuberance when it comes to sports. And there is a win-at-all-cost mentality that most fans and some boosters employ. But many boosters are unlikely to double-down on their investment when the return after Year 1 is a big fat negative number. It’s illogical to think otherwise at a place like Miami especially when our most publicized booster is being shown to be exultant and a used car salesman. Many of our boosters strike me as local businessmen (and women) who love the Program and University but are not blinded by homerism or an SEC-like fandom.

Keep your investment at the same level as last year (not a bad thing, is it?). Let Mario show you what he is capable of (minimum 7 wins, preferably 8). And, once Mario demonstrates that improvement (not too much to ask, is it?), then increase your contribution to get the Program to the next level. Your approach (respectfully) has us shooting our wad this year and praying that if we throw enough money at the problem, good things will happen. Well, Year 1 under Mario proves that is not always the case.

Here’s hoping I’m wrong. It’s not my money so I want you to be right. In a perfect world this Program would have multiple boosters with so much money to burn they don’t care how much it takes or how long it takes. However, this year shows that isn’t exactly what’s goin on.

I want nothing more than to win. I was fortunate to attend the University during our rise to the top (‘82 - ‘86). I know what greatness looks like. I’d like to see it again.

Respectfully disagree. Forget about sports and fandom for a minute. None of these businessmen (and women) would make a long term investment (10 years) of hundreds of millions of dollars into a company (Mario’s contract, coaches/support salaries and facilities) and after 1 year decide to just maintain their level of investment in labor just because year 1 didn’t meet expectations.

Especially if increasing their investment in labor can significantly increase the long term viability of said investment. Even more so if it would also cost them tens of millions of dollars halfway through that investment to change course. I would argue they need to look at it more as businessmen (women) than fans.

 

[Cane18]

Thought Big Joe gets all the Polys??????

 

[Angry Ibis]

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[Gables Cane]

Respectfully disagree. Forget about sports and fandom for a minute. None of these businessmen (and women) would make a long term investment (10 years) of hundreds of millions of dollars into a company (Mario’s contract, coaches/support salaries and facilities) and after 1 year decide to just maintain their level of investment in labor just because year 1 didn’t meet expectations.

Especially if increasing their investment in labor can significantly increase the long term viability of said investment. Even more so if it would also cost them tens of millions of dollars halfway through that investment to change course. I would argue they need to look at it more as businessmen (women) than fans.

While I don’t agree with your investment thesis, it’s certainly another approach that many of us would like to see (but then again it isn't our money being spent).

Ultimately, it depends on the appetite for risk. Risk averse investors would proceed with caution before increasing their level of investment. One can even argue that investing at the same level is unwarranted given Year 1 returns, making investing at elevated levels imprudent. I may not like it, but I understand it.

At the end of the day, we can debate the right investment strategy all night long but it doesn’t matter. It appears that our boosters have opted for a more cautious approach that is currently wreaking havoc on our recruiting. And we can all agree that s^cks!!!

 

[SSCane]

I'm in a Catch-22.

On the one hand, I don't believe an adult has any business telling another adult how to spend their disposable income. On the other hand, I am not a man who believes in half measures (and paying top dollar for a top flight HC, but not spending top dollar on NIL or elsewhere is a half measure).

We have a history of doing that. Before NIL, we would do that with coaching hires. Get coaches on the cheep or hire within and then subsequently fire them and pay their buy out and get absolutely no value. (Excluding Richt).
It’s been a salute torture watching this mismanagement for over 20 years. Not sure how much longer I can deal with watching this mess of a program.

 

[M3N]

I don’t know man but this is a possibility. The allocations are not where they should be so we’re losing to Nebraska with Barney because we have others as higher allocated priorities when that’s a top guy for them.

Others are getting it done so we’re failing somewhere between funds and allocations.

Someone said we’re not spending at all, I think @M3N - He can address that one. I’m as perplexed as everyone else.

We are 100% in a holding pattern when it comes to shelling out NIL. A lot of this can attributable to Ruiz and his loud mouth. Unless something changes between now and September I wouldn’t expect any major changes. Forget Breland, Stone. Etc. be prepared for top 25 class.

I’m telling you right now.. other schools are going to cherry pick our top guys committed bc of the lack of NIL.

Also I know for a fact the NIL is being used against us in recruiting. (thanks Ruiz).

 

[Calinative]

I get this and it could be happening. But then we are not properly funded or properly allocating. We’re not doing whatever we did last year that worked or were just not in the same position compared to others as we were last year.

Either way, we’re not getting it done with money and while I can be unhappy about last year’s record and all, if we’re not funding NIL or not using it properly then how can I blame Mario for that? Napier didn’t win 6 games in his crap scheme last year and suddenly become a stud recruiter while our guy became a lesser recruiter. The money’s there behind Napier and it’s being allocated to win.

Bro it’s still beginning of August. Bags will end up increasing by end of year. Let’s not try to blow our already small load and then have all y’all pitching about us not matching close to NSD

 

[TOcane]

Post of the year, now we might as well lock this entire recruiting thread

 

[Mansa Musa]

I think part of the problem is every Canes media outlet was hyping it all year and saying Miami is looking to sign the best d-line class in the country. Then it turned to June will be the best recruiting month ever....that was a dud. Then it was o-linemen don't want to compete, but we see they are going to other top programs to compete. Now it's turning to let's win on the field and try to flip recruits. But reality is we better hope we can hold on to what we have.

I know some people say Canes Collective is competitive, but it's starting to look like Ruiz really was that guy.