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2022-23 CBB Season

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AmherstCane said:
Crazy that our kenpom rank went down after Rutgers beat Indiana and now Rutgers is ranked 15 spots ahead of us.
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Kenprom doesn't work like that.


Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM): This is how KenPom determines the overall ranking of teams. This takes the offensive efficiency minus the defensive efficiency to determine how much X team would outscore the average Division I program by. We will define those two terms below.

Adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO): This is the amount of points a team scores per 100 possessions, or trips down the floor with the basketball.

Adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD): This is the amount of points a team allows per 100 possessions.

Adjusted tempo (AdjT): We’re going to spend a little bit of extra time on this one.

It’s not enough to just take offensive and defensive efficiency metrics and spit out the numbers from there. KenPom also accounts for tempo, which is the amount of possessions that a team has per 40 minutes (over the course of one game).

This is how KenPom says possessions in a game can be estimated using a box score:

Field goals attempted - offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.475 x free throws attempted

Possessions are counted for both teams and then averaged out to give us the AdjT metric.

Luck rating (Luck): This isn’t as complicated as some people think it is because luck and intangible things cannot be quantified. All this does is measure a team’s actual record with the projected record that KenPom spits out for them.

Darn! Such underachievers!

There’s obviously no preseason metric for this seeing as there’s no data and numbers to crunch just yet.

Strength of Schedule: This measures the total efficiency of the opponents that a team has faced during the year. Again, there is no preseason data seeing as it is dependent on games being played.

  • AdjEM: Once again, as it was defined above, this measures the point differential by which the teams a school has played would defeat the average Division I school by.
  • OppO: The amount of points your opponents score per 100 possessions.
  • OppD: The amount of points your opponents surrender per 100 possessions.
Non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS): KenPom attempts to paint a picture here of the portion of the schedule that a team’s athletic department can control, which obviously rewards a team that schedules tougher opponents as opposed to cupcakes in non-conference play.

AdjEM: Third time’s a charm. This measures the point differential by which your opponents would defeat the average Division I school by

Again, this doesn’t take into consideration the caliber of teams. Most non-conference schedules for Power 5 schools are fairly light with some bigger matchups. This is more a measure of how bad the worst teams you play are. They really should rename this part of it the cupcake metric.
 
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