The Decline of South Florida

DMoney
DMoney
6 min read
Everybody knows I’m a South Florida homer. And with good reason. Miami has consistently ranked as the top city for producing NFL players, with Fort Lauderdale close behind. The region has produced 52 first rounders since 2000.

Even with the Canes struggling to recruit South Florida for much of the past two decades, our local recruits have significantly outperformed our national recruits. From 2000-2019, South Florida kids comprised 44% of Miami’s signees. But the South Florida kids represented 73% of our first rounders, 67% of our Day 2 picks and 60% of our total NFL draft picks.

Why did our national kids underperform? Budget and brand. We didn’t have the budget to win national bidding wars, and our brand was diminished by poor on-field performance. Because we couldn’t win national battles, we resorted to dumpster diving for SEC rejects, “blue-chip” kids plummeting down the rankings, and character concerns. This led to an inordinate amount of national busts. Despite all the hurdles in South Florida, we at least had the local angle and more brand awareness.

But things started changing in the new decade. For starters, the highly touted local crops from 2020-2022 have underperformed. Here are the Top 10 South Florida recruits (per 247 Composite) for those classes:

2020

1. DE Donnell Harris- Transferred from Texas A&M with 4 career tackles. Appears to be out of football.
2. WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint- 1,028 career yards over four seasons at Georgia. Undrafted.
3. LB Derek Wingo- Entering Year 5 at Florida, has yet to exceed 25 tackles in a season.
4. WR Xzavier Henderson- Transferred to Cincinnati. 782 yards and 3 TDs last year.
5. RB Jaylan Knighton- Transferred to SMU. 745 rushing yards and 7 TDs last year.
6. OT Marcus Dumervil- Transferred to Maryland. Played four games last year.
7. RB Donald Chaney- Transferred to Louisville. Career-high 478 yards last year.
8. WR Thaiu Jones-Bell- Four career catches at Alabama. Entered Portal but has not announced destination.
9. OT Issiah Walker- Signed with Florida, transferred to Miami and then went JUCO. Was NCJAA All-American and is now at Texas State.
10. WR Bryan Robinson- Transferred to Marshall. Four catches last year.

2021

1. DE Dallas Turner- First round pick of the Vikings.
2. DT Leonard Taylor- Undrafted. Six career sacks.
3. S James Williams- Seventh round pick of the Titans. 73 tackles as a junior.
4. LB Terrence Lewis- Signed with Maryland, transferred to UCF, now at JUCO. One career tackle.
5. WR JaCorey Brooks- Transferred to Louisville. Three catches for 30 yards last year at Alabama.
6. CB Jason Marshall- Entering his fourth year at Florida. Two career INTs.
7. DL Tyreak Sapp- Rotational player. 24 tackles, 4.5 TFLs and 2 sacks last year.
8. CB Corey Collier- Two career tackles. Now at Florida A&M.
9. OG Marcus Tate- Entering his fourth year as a starter for Clemson.
10. WR Romello Brinson- Transferred to SMU. 431 yards and 2 TDs last year.

2022

1. DL Shemar Stewart- 23 tackles, 3.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks last year.
2. DE Marvin Jones, Jr.- Transferred to Florida State. Four tackles last year.
3. DE Kenyatta Jackson- Nine career tackles.
4. DE Nyjalik Kelly- Transferred to UCF. Four career sacks.
5. CB Earl Little- Transferred to Florida State. One career tackle.
6. OL Julian Armella- Has yet to break OL rotation. Played in six blowouts last year.
7. LB Wesley Bissainthe- Starter at LB. 44 tackles, 6.5 TFLs and 2 sacks last year.
8. CB Jacolby Spells- Rotational CB, injury has 2024 season in doubt.
9. CB Trevell Mullen- Transferred to James Madison, didn’t play any snaps.
10. WR Bugs Mortimer- Dealt with off-field issues, now at Western Michigan.

The NFL Draft reflects this downturn. From 2018-2023, there were an average of six South Florida kids picked on the first two days of the draft (2.66 first round, 3.333 second/third round). Last year, there was only one first rounder (Dallas Turner) and one Day 2 pick (Kam Kinchens), the latter of whom was the second-to-last pick of the third round. ESPN’s 2025 Mock Draft does not include any South Florida players in the first round.

The Class of 2025 falls in line with this trend. This year’s crop was as unimpressive as I can remember on the camp circuit. There is not a single local player is Top 75 on the Composite.

The good news for the Canes is that this local downturn has coincided with unexpected changes in our national recruiting. Simply put, we’re spending money like we’ve never spent before. We spent $8 million a year on an elite national recruiter in Mario Cristobal. And our official NIL collective (Canes Connection) has allowed us to win bag wars. We finally have the budget to recruit nationally. We don't have to bargain shop anymore.

This shows up in our newfound ability to win big-time battles. In the 10 years before Mario, we only signed eight Top 100 players from out of state: Raphael Kirby, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Kevin Olsen, Brad Kaaya, Jeff Thomas, DJ Johnson, Brevin Jordan and Jarren Williams. They ranked 78th nationally, on average.

In the 3.5 years since Mario has been here, we’ve already matched that number (8) with much higher quality- an average ranking of 48th nationally. This includes three five stars. We've landed blue-chippers from Hawaii, American Samoa, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Indiana, Alabama and Ohio. No state is off limits for Mario and this staff.

And the news isn’t all bad in South Florida. Mario flipped Mark Fletcher and Jordan Lyle from Ohio State, beat out Nick Saban for Damari Brown and has shut out Florida and FSU. The region has produced some major impact players in the last two classes, including #1 overall player Jeremiah Smith and Freshman All-American Rueben Bain. Some of the most productive college players entering the '25 season are local, including DEs Ashton Gillotte (Louisville), DE Patrick Payton (FSU), DE Elijah Roberts (SMU), WR Xavier Restrepo (Miami), CB Ricardo Hallman (Wisconsin) and Bain. The 2022 kids can still break out, and the 26-27 classes have a lot of hype.

But the bottom line is we are lucky the budget exploded when it did. There has never been a more important time to break through nationally.
 

Comments (230)

Could it be the Walt Frazier’s Coach Smiths and other legends are no longer preparing the kids and this 7 on 7 wide open offense stuff is part of it? Because south Florida has been overrated. And it’s why anyone complaining that Mario is recruiting outside the state to be ridiculous. My opinion
 
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I’d say it’s been more of a bad run than a decline of talent. I’ll believe there’s a lack of talent when the Ohio States and Alabamas of the world stop recruiting guys here. But I do agree that it’s in our best interest to recruit nationally that way a down year locally doesn’t automatically make it a bad recruiting year for us.
 
The key for national recruiting is budget. As the stats showed in the full article, we had terrible results nationally before our budget exploded. The South Florida signees were way better on average despite the many local whiffs.

When you have the budget to hire Cristobal and pay six-figures for national players, the map expands considerably. And the timing is perfect because South Florida has been slipping lately.
 
Everybody knows I’m a South Florida homer. And with good reason. Miami has consistently ranked as the top city for producing NFL players, with Fort Lauderdale close behind. The region has produced 52 first rounders since 2000.

Even with the Canes struggling to recruit South Florida for much of the past two decades, our local recruits have significantly outperformed our national recruits. From 2000-2019, South Florida kids comprised 44% of Miami’s signees. But the South Florida kids represented 73% of our first rounders, 67% of our Day 2 picks and 60% of our total NFL draft picks.

Why did our national kids underperform? Budget and brand. We didn’t have the budget to win national bidding wars, and our brand was diminished by poor on-field performance. Because we couldn’t win national battles, we resorted to dumpster diving for SEC rejects, “blue-chip” kids plummeting down the rankings, and character concerns. This led to an inordinate amount of national busts. Despite all the hurdles in South Florida, we at least had the local angle and more brand awareness.

But things started changing in the new decade. For starters, the highly touted local crops from 2020-2022 have underperformed. Here are the Top 10 South Florida recruits (per 247 Composite) for those classes:

2020

1. DE Donnell Harris- Transferred from Texas A&M with 4 career tackles. Appears to be out of football.
2. WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint- 1,028 career yards over four seasons at Georgia. Undrafted.
3. LB Derek Wingo- Entering Year 5 at Florida, has yet to exceed 25 tackles in a season.
4. WR Xzavier Henderson- Transferred to Cincinnati. 782 yards and 3 TDs last year.
5. RB Jaylan Knighton- Transferred to SMU. 745 rushing yards and 7 TDs last year.
6. OT Marcus Dumervil- Transferred to Maryland. Played four games last year.
7. RB Donald Chaney- Transferred to Louisville. Career-high 478 yards last year.
8. WR Thaiu Jones-Bell- Four career catches at Alabama. Entered Portal but has not announced destination.
9. OT Issiah Walker- Signed with Florida, transferred to Miami and then went JUCO. Was NCJAA All-American and is now at Texas State.
10. WR Bryan Robinson- Transferred to Marshall. Four catches last year.

2021

1. DE Dallas Turner- First round pick of the Vikings.
2. DT Leonard Taylor- Undrafted. Six career sacks.
3. S James Williams- Seventh round pick of the Titans. 73 tackles as a junior.
4. LB Terrence Lewis- Signed with Maryland, transferred to UCF, now at JUCO. One career tackle.
5. WR JaCorey Brooks- Transferred to Louisville. Three catches for 30 yards last year at Alabama.
6. CB Jason Marshall- Entering his fourth year at Florida. Two career INTs.
7. DL Tyreak Sapp- Rotational player. 24 tackles, 4.5 TFLs and 2 sacks last year.
8. CB Corey Collier- Two career tackles. Now at Florida A&M.
9. OG Marcus Tate- Entering his fourth year as a starter for Clemson.
10. WR Romello Brinson- Transferred to SMU. 431 yards and 2 TDs last year.

2022

1. DL Shemar Stewart- 23 tackles, 3.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks last year.
2. DE Marvin Jones, Jr.- Transferred to Florida State. Four tackles last year.
3. DE Kenyatta Jackson- Nine career tackles.
4. DE Nyjalik Kelly- Transferred to UCF. Four career sacks.
5. CB Earl Little- Transferred to Florida State. One career tackle.
6. OL Julian Armella- Has yet to break OL rotation. Played in six blowouts last year.
7. LB Wesley Bissainthe- Starter at LB. 44 tackles, 6.5 TFLs and 2 sacks last year.
8. CB Jacolby Spells- Rotational CB, injury has 2024 season in doubt.
9. CB Trevell Mullen- Transferred to James Madison, didn’t play any snaps.
10. WR Bugs Mortimer- Dealt with off-field issues, now at Western Michigan.

The NFL Draft reflects this downturn. From 2018-2023, there were an average of six South Florida kids picked on the first two days of the draft (2.66 first round, 3.333 second/third round). Last year, there was only one first rounder (Dallas Turner) and one Day 2 pick (Kam Kinchens), the latter of whom was the second-to-last pick of the third round. ESPN’s 2025 Mock Draft does not include any South Florida players in the first round.

The Class of 2025 falls in line with this trend. This year’s crop was as unimpressive as I can remember on the camp circuit. There is not a single local player is Top 75 on the Composite.

The good news for the Canes is that this local downturn has coincided with unexpected changes in our national recruiting. Simply put, we’re spending money like we’ve never spent before. We spent $8 million a year on an elite national recruiter in Mario Cristobal. And our official NIL collective (Canes Connection) has allowed us to win bag wars. We finally have the budget to recruit nationally. We don't have to bargain shop anymore.

This shows up in our newfound ability to win big-time battles. In the 10 years before Mario, we only signed eight Top 100 players from out of state: Raphael Kirby, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Kevin Olsen, Brad Kaaya, Jeff Thomas, DJ Johnson, Brevin Jordan and Jarren Williams. They ranked 78th nationally, on average.

In the 3.5 years since Mario has been here, we’ve already matched that number (8) with much higher quality- an average ranking of 48th nationally. This includes three five stars. We've landed blue-chippers from Hawaii, American Samoa, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Indiana, Alabama and Ohio. No state is off limits for Mario and this staff.

And the news isn’t all bad in South Florida. Mario flipped Mark Fletcher and Jordan Lyle from Ohio State, beat out Nick Saban for Damari Brown and has shut out Florida and FSU. The region has produced some major impact players in the last two classes, including #1 overall player Jeremiah Smith and Freshman All-American Rueben Bain. Some of the most productive college players entering the '25 season are local, including DEs Ashton Gillotte (Louisville), DE Patrick Payton (FSU), DE Elijah Roberts (SMU), WR Xavier Restrepo (Miami), CB Ricardo Hallman (Wisconsin) and Bain. The 2022 kids can still break out, and the 26-27 classes have a lot of hype.

But the bottom line is we are lucky the budget exploded when it did. There has never been a more important time to break through nationally.
It's not that do fla is declining it's that the site aren't as good as they use to be. They ranking kids off measurements over production and competition. Plus theirs not as many combines, kids getting rank off 7on7 not in pads with real playbooks or teammates. Ppl parents paying site.. it's a **** show. We need to go off tape... look at the Pitt DT at the Bucs from Northwestern or even Payton. We letting hype and a earlier recruiting cycle rush the evaluation. Senior years matter you can't rank kids off what they did at 14 or 15 alone.
 
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And that’s why kids act like that cause they themselves do not know when they will ever have that level of clout/attention again. So they might as well take advantage of it, can’t blame them sometimes.
Good point. Wasn't the drama with his Dad being weird? Am I remembering that correctly?
 
Kut the krap @DMoney what about the So FL 3 stars?!!!! Jokes aside though, for 25 class only 4 of the top 30 FL prospects are from SO FL, and Ewald makes 5 @ #31. In 2026, its 9 of the top 30, with 4 of the top 6 according to 247. Thats not counting any that transferred to IMG.
 
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It's not that do fla is declining it's that the site aren't as good as they use to be. They ranking kids off measurements over production and competition. Plus theirs not as many combines, kids getting rank off 7on7 not in pads with real playbooks or teammates. Ppl parents paying site.. it's a **** show. We need to go off tape... look at the Pitt DT at the Bucs from Northwestern or even Payton. We letting hype and a earlier recruiting cycle rush the evaluation. Senior years matter you can't rank kids off what they did at 14 or 15 alone.
But of that was the casethe underrated ones would show up in the draft no?
 
Shocking to look at the results from south Florida as a whole in the past couple of classes
It’s not. I’ve been saying this for years. We have poured so many resources in SFL for years that we have settled for mediocrity instead of putting more resources in urban areas like NJ, PA, MD, VA, and Louisiana.

Butch understood this and created the greatest team to grace a college football field. Even though he’s living proof we were sold a lie that it was still the 80’s.
 
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