Alright fine then. Freshman all Americans if that is your standard. Bain regressed from year one to year two. Would you not agree? Frederique showed promise but got battered by Syracuse, but he is a freshman, that happens. So I am not losing sleep over Frederique over one bad performance. The one you can definitively point to is Mauigoa who is legit at RT. You have a whopping three to four players who are good to elite in three years here. What about the rest of his full classes here (2022 and 2023)? Let's take a look at the so-called "ace" recruiter, shall we?
2022 (16 commits)
Entered the portal after accomplishing nothing:
Khamauri Rogers
Cyrus Moss
Jaleel Skinner
Nyjalik Kelly
Chris Graves
Trevante Citizen
Jacurri Brown
Accomplished nothing or are liabilities but no portal yet:
Markeith Williams
Jaden Harris (Need I say more?)
Matthew McCoy
Average to good:
Bissante
Cooper
Isaiah Horton
2023 (21 commits):
Done nothing:
Kinsler
Tinilau
Pulliam
Horton
Bobby Washington
Robby Washington (portal)
Tripp (portal)
Bryant
Okunlola
Stafford (portal)
Acheampong (portal?)
Johnson (portal)
Wayne (portal)
Some promise, but too early to tell:
R. Williams
D. Brown
Aguirre
E. Williams (Looking for QB upgrades in the portal still)
D. Joyce (punter/kicker)
Studs:
Fletcher
Bain
Mauigoa
2024 is too early to say one way or the other, but I believe Frederique is a stud.
What I just listed, simply isn't good enough to be a true title contender. No emotion involved. Simply data and facts.
(Now back to my opinion) So we know Mario is a poor game day coach like Butch Davis was;therefore, you have to have an elite eye for talent like Butch did or a generational qb (Ward) to be anything more 6-6, 7-5, 8-4 here. This is why I said that Mario has already peaked here if he is going to be in charge of everything. This season is as good as it will get. And that's not good enough, imo.
Now here is some analysis and I mean that seriously!
Mario had all of two weeks to work on the Class of 2022, but we will count it for the sake of argument:
- Not sure why there is so much hate for McCoy. OL take longer to develop and he was more than adequate this season. Should be better next season.
- You left out Ahmad Moten, who I would consider a development success given how he ended the season.
- Cooper regressed this season but he is still going to be a pro, so I think he still counts as a success.
- Harris isn't good but he was also the 44th ranked CB in that class so I am not really sure what the expectation was.
- Definitely bummed Kelly didn't develop as expected, that one stings.
Overall, that is ~30% hit rate (I count McCoy) on 16 recruits. Just using Oregon as an example, they signed 17 kids in 2022 and five of them are on the two-deep. Josh Conerly (who we were in on late!) is an absolute stud, but otherwise this is pretty comparable.
2023:
- I don't have a lot to argue here other than I am not ready to give up on Okunlola, Bryant, Bobby Washington or Josh Horton.
- Considering guys like Okunlola and Horton are redshirt freshmen, I'd argue it is still way too early to judge this class as well.
Assuming we don't count those guys, that's ~28% hit rate (if you don't count Joyce or Emory). Oregon signed 30 (!) kids and five of them are on the two-deep (Matayo U is a monster). Pretty comparable.
2024:
- Too early to tell but agree that Frederique is going to be a good one.
My point here isn't to say that we are on par with Oregon, we aren't, so more of our young guys are going to play. They also have some serious financial advantages. And this analysis might look way different in two years as guys develop or don't. If you want to criticize, the lack of truly top-end guys is frustrating. But it is still really early!
More than anything, I think the idea that you need to hit on 50% of your recruiting class to compete for titles is not based in reality. Maybe this was true five years ago, but with the portal and kids transferring before they even bother to develop, I think 30% is a decent number.
I didn't do the same analysis for Georgia or Alabama but I think you would find that the hit rate percentages are pretty similar.
Mario has a lot of warts and he won't ever be confused with a master strategist, but our team is much more talented than it was two years ago and dumping on his recruiting feels like an overreaction.
