EightiesCane
Freshman
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2019
- Messages
- 300
Did anyone else see the kenpom tweet?
Did anyone else see the kenpom tweet?
Those two numbers aren't mutually exclusive. There's a lot of good fortune (aka luck) involved in getting to the Final Four.Last year we were ranked like 21st, and we were in the final 4.
There is definitely luck involved in March, but even as of Selection Sunday last year, our resume metrics were much stronger than our predictive metrics. That was also the case in 2022, and is the case so far this year.Those two numbers aren't mutually exclusive. There's a lot of good fortune (aka luck) involved in getting to the Final Four.
I understand that, but we sat in the 30s for the majority of the season while winning ACC regular season, and having a strong year, then ended up making the final 4.Those two numbers aren't mutually exclusive. There's a lot of good fortune (aka luck) involved in getting to the Final Four.
I think with one of UConn's Championship teams (mighta been last year even), they experienced this.I understand that, but we sat in the 30s for the majority of the season while winning ACC regular season, and having a strong year, then ended up making the final 4.
so somewhere there is a disconnect
There is definitely luck involved in March, but even as of Selection Sunday last year, our resume metrics were much stronger than our predictive metrics. That was also the case in 2022, and is the case so far this year.
At some point - and idk when that point is - we have to consider whether the metrics are missing something about this team.
I think with one of UConn's Championship teams (mighta been last year even), they experienced this.
Did anyone else see the kenpom tweet?
I just wouldn't go that far. In all sports, margin of victory/defeat matters. That's pretty conclusive at this point.Exactly. The disparity between our strength of record ranking and kenpom ranking the last two years is the big problem in my opinion. And that’s created by ranking exclusively on what amounts to opponent adjusted margin of victory/defeat and completely ignoring wins and losses (a team that demolishes bad teams but loses close games to every good team will have a higher kenpom ranking than a team with a much better record and similar SOS that beats both good and bad teams by small margins).
Obviously our SOR was more predictive than our efficiency metrics for the last two postseasons.
I just wouldn't go that far. In all sports, margin of victory/defeat matters. That's pretty conclusive at this point.
But I think there are some teams that are exceptions - for whatever reason - and we may be one of them.
Maybe he can, maybe he can't.Of course it matters but it is not the only thing that matters. What’s strange is that he could easily get rid of the “luck” ranking (that is the most obnoxiously arrogant and awful metric) and incorporate an adjustment for winning against expectations and he could meaningfully improve his system.
He can. His ranking system does not account for who wins or who loses. Winning by 1 is basically the same as losing by 1 in his system. He could weight for actual wins… very easy to do it but he believes wins and losses don’t matter because that’s the entire basis of his ranking system.Maybe he can, maybe he can't.
Some things are not quantifiable
We were ranked in the 40s before that runLast year we were ranked like 21st, and we were in the final 4.