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Much has yet to become public in Lucas’ fight to transfer, including the nature and terms of the agreement sources told BadgerExtra Lucas signed before he returned to Florida for winter break. An open records request filed with the university to turn over such a document was denied because, “any written agreements between students and the university are education records according to (the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act),” and “no amount of redaction that could sufficiently de-identify the education records.”
Many fans on social media have speculated that Wisconsin and/or the Varsity Collective are requiring repayment of money paid upon signing of the agreement before Lucas can be placed in the portal. However, that request wouldn’t hold control over Wisconsin’s compliance office, which is required to enter an athlete’s name into the portal within two business days of paperwork being filed. Heitner contends Lucas filed his paperwork Dec. 19, the day he initially posted his intent to hit the portal.
The endgame in this scenario is intriguing for both sides. There appears to be four most likely outcomes.
1. — Lucas returning to and playing for Wisconsin — seems farfetched at this juncture.
2. The NCAA forces Wisconsin’s hand to release Lucas
Heitner said Tuesday he was asking for a day-of response from the NCAA regarding Lucas’ situation. The NCAA has shown recently it’s not as interested in fighting or adept at winning legal challenges in the realm of athlete eligibility. So it could step in and say Wisconsin’s wrong in its belief that Lucas is bound to the program, but Wisconsin’s had legal review of this situation in recent weeks and that seemingly would’ve pointed out any errors or misinterpretations on the Badgers’ end.
This fight could drag on beyond the timeframe Lucas would need to enroll at another school for the spring semester — while athletes typically need to be in classes by the last week in January to be eligible for sports, the exact dates differ at each institution — but Heitner has said Tuesday he’ll file for an injunction if needed to get Lucas in the portal as soon as possible.
3. Wisconsin wins a legal battle and sets precedent
One challenge programs face in the constantly shifting landscape of college football is that the rules change faster than their processes can. College football programs, especially in the Big Ten, exist within massive state universities. That fact means a lot of red tape must be cut through to adjust to new things.
Wisconsin might be drawing a line in the sand for other schools to follow if a contract can be agreed to and enforced with an athlete. That also could open another round of debate about college athletes being employees of their institutions.
Any precedent Wisconsin sets with a legal win against Lucas in the matter would likely be confirmed or superseded by the settlement of the House v. NCAA antitrust lawsuit. That settlement is expected in the spring, and it sets the framework for schools to pay athletes directly, sets scholarship and roster limits per sport and more.
4. Wisconsin loses a legal battle and suffers the consequences
This outcome would require a good number of people in Kellner Hall and the Wisconsin football offices to be wrong.
Their failure could be one of timing — like getting ahead of the House v. NCAA settlement with a contract structure that’s not yet enforceable — or misinterpreting the rules as they stand. Either way, if this goes poorly for the Badgers, people from the football program all the way through compliance, legal and top-tier administrators will be left with egg on their face.
Even if that happens though, the House v. NCAA settlement’s direct payment structure may create a basis for contracts that tie athletes to schools and any embarrassment would be short-lived.