BCS top 10 and "X" means they have at least 1 Loss
1. Bama
2. FSU
3. Oregon - X
4. OSU
5. Stanford - X
6. Baylor
7. Clemson - X
8. Missouri - X
9. Auburn - X
10. Oklahoma - X
After last night
- Oklahoma had it's second X, they are LIKELY out of Big 12 contention and they don't have a Big 12 Conference Game.
- Oregon, will likely move to 6 and everyone will move up (5 and above). Oregon has no quality/ranked opponents left and will not be in the Pac-12 game unless somehow Stanford loses to USC or Cal. Oregon may go to a BCS game.
Moving Forward (leaving FSU and Bama out of talk)
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Please note this is not about biases (i.e. how we like a team, just what is best for us):
Also please note that the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12 and AAC all send one guaranteed opponent to the BCS games. There are 5 BCS games and 10 spots available, 6 of those are automatic bids and 4 are up for grabs.
- Clemson has one X. They LIKELY will not be in the ACCCG so they will have to rely on beating USCe on the road. Unfortunately, if they win that game they are in good shape to get to a BCS game. The best case scenario is if GT beats them.
- SEC and the BCS: Missouri and Auburn each have an X. Missouri has a game left against TAMpon. Auburn has a game against Bama. The best case scenario is Missouri and Auburn lose. USCe beats everyone but Clemson and USCe goes to the SECCG and loses to Bama. Missouri and Auburn would have 2 Xs and USCe 3 Xs. The only issue is whether a 10-2 TAMpon (beating a 10-1 Missouri) would get them into serious BCS contention. With the slicksters at the SEC, anything is possible.
- OSU and Big 10: OSU is just coasting. They have Michigan left (at Michigan) and for the first time there is a BIG 10 CG. The worst case scenario is OSU loses only ONCE to Michigan or Michigan State. Assuming they get through the Big 10 undefeated they will likely play Michigan State. Michigan State is a trouble team, if they can win out and beat OSU, it would bad news for us because:
MSU: 12-1 (Big 10 Champs)
OSU: 12-1 (Only Loss to Big 10 Champ)
For some reason OSU would possibly get the nod over Miami. Not saying they deserve it but that is how it could happen since their 1 X is in the Big 10 CG. The best case scenario is if OSU loses to Michigan and Michigan State or OSU goes 13-0 or basically as long as they beat Michigan State in the Championship Game. You don't want a 12-1 MSU and 12-1 OSU.
- Big 12 and AAC: At this point it would be best if Baylor and UCF win out, they would take those spots that are tied into the conference.
Basically, here is how things stand today:
NC Game: Bama v. FSU
Rose Bowl: Stanford (Pac-12) v. OSU (Big 10)
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (Big-12) v. Spot 1 (At Large)
Sugar Bowl: Spot 2 (SEC) v. Spot 3 (At Large)
Orange Bowl: Spot 4 (ACC) v. UCF (AAC just leave them here for now)
The one caveat to the 4 At-Large Spots:Up to four "at-large" selections who finished the season ranked in the top 14 in the BCS rankings. The highest-ranked champion of a non-AQ conference will also receive an automatic berth if ranked in the top 12 or ranked in the top 16 and higher than at least one AQ conference champion. The at-large selections can be granted to any FBS team, even those that aren't members of the six BCS conferences. Even in the five BCS bowls, consideration is given to historic associations between the conferences and the bowl games themselves. Tie-ins still apply, unless a team obligated to a certain bowl game is selected for the BCS Championship Game. In that case, their slot is filled by an at-large school. Any bowl that loses a contracted team to the Championship Game gets first pick of the eligible at-large schools. In the instance that the Pac-12 or Big Ten champion receives a bid to the BCS National Championship, the Rose Bowl is filled by either the second place team of the conference with the team that opted out, or if a "non Big-6"(a school not part of the major conferences) is ranked higher in the BCS standings they receive the bid over the second place team.
Let's assume Spot 1 is granted to a Non-AQ Conference.
There are then 3 spots left over. The question is who gets it if the following happens
- 11-1 Oregon (Only Lost to Stanford CC)
- 11-2 Miami (Lost twice to FSU i.e. in the NC Game)
- 11-1 Clemson (Lost to FSU at home, no Conference Champ Game)
- 10-2 Missouri (Lost to USCe and TAMpon, no Conference Champ Game)
- 10-2 Auburn (Lost to ranked LSU and Bama, no Conference Champ Game)
- 10-2 TAMpon (Lost to Bama and Auburn, no Conference Champ Game)
- 11-2 MSU (Lost to Notre Dame and OSU in the CCG)
My guess is Oregon and some SEC school will get a Spot. The question is who has the best case argument:
- 11-2 MSU
- 11-2 Miami
- 11-1 Clemson
Most important, let's beat VT.
