I am an Aggie, class of 2009. I follow our program closely and am also business partners with a couple of large Aggie donors who get inside tidbits from time to time. Just read through this thread. Here is my take. This will be long, so sorry in advance.
Just in terms of players on campus, i believe A&M has more talent, but not enough that Miami cannot win. I think whether this is a close game or not comes down to one matchup, and that is Miami's DL against A&M's OL. If your DL gives us trouble, it will absolutely be a four quarter game. We have had injuries at OL throughout camp (although nothing significant), and I don't think our projected starting five have taken many snaps together at all, if any. By game 3, they might have time to gel a little bit, but we are still replacing a couple of starters, and the names that have come up to replace those starters have changed throughout camp, even as recently as this week. Honestly I'm not even sure we have a set starting five yet, but the reports out of camp are that this will likely be the best O line we've had since Jimbo got here. The good news for Miami is that, since Jimbo has been here, our offensive line has been pretty poor for the first 3-4 games, even in the 2020 season when we won the Orange Bowl and had an OL of all seniors, they started off really bad. We also have a bad habit of starting games slow on offense and unnecessarily spotting teams a bunch of points. I'll be 100% candid here. I hate Jimbo's offense, or at least what we have seen for the last four years. It's truly painful to watch a lot of times. For the talent we have, there is no reason why it has to be so hard for us to score points efficiently. Because Jimbo is stubborn and refuses to evolve his offense even though it sucks, I fully expect more of the same this year. However, when the run game does get going, it is hard to stop, and that's where the matchup I mentioned above comes in. If you guys can stop the run, then we're having to rely on a QB making either his first start at A&M (if it's Johnson), first start in college (if it's Weigman), or second start in college (if it's King) to win the game for us. Not ideal, especially if your DL getting a good amount of pressure in addition to stopping the run. If that happens, then this is a very close game.
I'd also point out that we don't have a ton of elite talent at receiver. Evan Stewart was obviously a 5 star top 10 recruit, enrolled early, and has already secured a starting role. I do believe he is an elite talent. But other than him, it's kind of done by committee. Ainias Smith will get open and get yards because of his short range quickness, but he isn't going to beat anyone deep. Moose Muhammad has had some freak catches and can make an impact, but his reps have been limited for some reason, probably inconsistent route running. Chase Lane and Jalen Preston are solid route-runners and do-it-all kind of players, but they lack elite and quickness. A couple of the other true freshmen are looking good in camp but haven't been spectacular or anything. If you're DL is getting pressure, other than Evan Stewart (and he hasn't done it in a game yet), we don't have a receiver on the team who you can just throw it up to and know he'll make a play. We have had inconsistencies at that position since Jimbo arrived. Might be a favorable matchup for you guys.
To mitigate that, we have been lining up Achane out at receiver quite a bit in camp because we have a deep stable of talented backs who can still shoulder the load if he splits out and the defense forces us to run. Trying to remain objective, just from watching him play, I don't believe Achane can be stopped. Even if you think you have him, his pure track speed can beat a lot of angles. I think the best you can probably do is just make sure he doesn't rip off long touchdown runs.
Tight end is a wild card. We signed three really good ones, but we are starting a converted defensive end there currently. Could end up being a strength for us or a huge weakness. I honestly have no idea.
One thing I would point out to those of you saying we didn't beat anyone other than Alabama last year and lost teams with less talent. That is absolutely true, but keep in mind that our starting quarterback went down for the year on the first series in our second game against Colorado, and by all accounts that quarterback battle was not even close last year. So we were stuck with Zach Calzada all season, who was terrible (and also played injured most of the year). And, in spite of somehow miraculously beating Alabama which to this day I still cannot explain, he knew and we knew that he was so bad there was no place for him here going forward. So he transferred to Auburn, and according to reports he is running third there and has no chance of starting. If you guys lost Van Dyke in game 2 this year, your season outlook probably goes from 10ish wins down to like 7 or 8. Defense and special teams can only do so much when your offense is garbage because you have an invalid with happy feet at quarterback. That's what happened to us last year. Anyway, I don't know for sure who the QB is going to be. I suspect it's going to be Haynes King and not Max Johnson, but regardless of who it is, you can be certain that our quarterback play will at least be a little better than it was last year, so factor that into your analysis.
As concerns A&M's defense, I totally get that you guys feel good about your QB, and I agree he is a proven commodity and is quite good. But, respectfully, I really don't think you're going to be able to do a whole lot on offense. There is much talk about our D line only being good because of the freshman class we just signed. Not so. We are 7 or 8 deep with mostly 4 and 5 star guys who are returning before you even get to the true freshmen, anchored by borderline 5 star McKinnley Jackson in the middle at 335 pounds (who picked us over Alabama in 2020) and rounded out by 5 star sophomore Shemar Turner who is a terror inside and off the edge in the same mold as Demarvin Leal. The true fish are going to get reps and provide depth to be sure though. Normally I would say relying on true freshmen for defensive line depth is a recipe for disaster, but in this case, the D line class we just signed is basically unprecedented in recruiting history. I know that sounds ****** of me to say, but the numbers bear it out. Composite 5 star Walter Nolen (#2 player nationally), composite 5 star Shemar Stewart (#9 player nationally and I know you're very familiar with him), composite 5 star Lebbeus Overton (#14 player nationally. and was the number 1 player in 2023 before reclassifying), composite 5 star Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (#17 player nationally), non-composite 5 star Enai White (#49 player nationally), non-composite 5 star Anthony Lucas (#59 player nationally), and high 4 star Malick Sylla (#94 player nationally). By all accounts, every single one of those seven guys has arrived in phenomenal shape and physically ready to be not just contributors but difference makers from day 1. I'm taking those maroon colored "accounts" with a grain of salt, but just because of the sheer numbers of highly rated guys we signed there, we are bound to have 2 or 3 instant impact players out of that group. And there are plenty of talented guys flying more under the radar at that position who I didn't even mention.
If only 2 or 3 of those true fish are ready to contribute, we'll go about 12 deep on the D line with talent that does not measurably drop off. If all of them are ready, we will have the ability to go more like 15 deep. We lack experienced depth at linebacker, but our starting two are very experienced and very talented. The secondary might be the strength of our entire team, even without the seven 4 and 5 stars that we just signed. Lots of physicality and speed back there, and several 3rd and 4th year guys. If Miami has a question mark at the wide receiver position, I expect that will be a favorable matchup for A&M.
In sum, I think that this is either (1) an A&M win by a couple of touchdowns, or (2) a coin flip in the 4th quarter if you can contain Achane and your DL can get the better of our OL. My personal opinion is that Jimbo's offense is not good. It doesn't create explosive plays, and in fact it moves so slowly and runs so few plays that our offensive mistakes are actually magnified. I also have very little confidence in our OL early in the season. I'm guessing this is a 4-quarter battle. I'll pick A&M to pull it out something like 20-17.
. Even with mediocre QB play Jimbo will get this kid the ball in any and many different ways, just hope we never lose track of him and let him get started in open field.
