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Why can't Miami win this year?

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Carolinacaneman

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Everyone is talking about 2014 and 2015, but why can't Miami win this year? They have an experienced quarterback with talent, one of the best running backs in the country, talented receivers, and pretty much their top seven or eight offensive linemen back. Defensively I have to think they will be better since they cannot be any worse; in fact I feel they will be much improved since the freshmen that were forced to play will now be sophomores. Jenkins, Crawford, Bush, Kirby, and Howard all have the potential to be all-conference. Granted, I do not think they will have a top ten defense, but top fifty or sixty is not out of the question. That should be enough to win the ACC. Florida State has to break in a new QB and V-Tech doesn't scare me. Additional, NC lost one of the conferences best players in Bernard. Clemson is probably the best on paper, but they lost key offensive players in Ellington, Hopkins and Freeman.
 
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Injuries will expose the depth problem. At least two more recruiting cycles before the re.cruiting imbalances of the previous regime are overcome.
 
As Dandy so astutely pointed out, there is no depth on defense. Not one iota. Not sure who's fault that is, but somebody needs to get stabbed.
 
117th in defense will finish no higher than 50th at the high this year if lucky. can't win the close and tough games with a liability of that nature.
 
ball915 said:
117th in defense will finish no higher than 50th at the high this year if lucky. can't win the close and tough games with a liability of that nature.
Click to expand...

Finally someone who makes cents!! +rep for you
 
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I think they can win enough to make the majority of fans happy, though having an unmistakably great year is a stretch with the depth issues and need for such a major turnaround defensively. My main concern is just to win those games that we should win, no let downs against lesser ACC opponents that make people reconsider our spot near the top of the ACC.
 
give me a min of 9 wins and a win against UFAG or FSU and I'm satisfied this season
 
I'm excited as **** about this season too, but at this point I'm hanging my hat on the hope that our O scores a boatload of points to win games - and why not all of them? What the ****, I'm a fan!

The jury is still out on our defense. And by that I mean I'm not sure if its the defensive model in general, enough talent & depth to implement said model, not to mention coaching capable of teaching it so, that it becomes ingrained in the players to instinctively just play & deliver it (vs mistakes in coverage, assignments, etc etc). Add to that the "what if" of (assuming the model is OK because the players get it and don't blow assignments) that the defensive staff can fix the bleeding when we're getting gashed with right on adjustments in games.

It's not an attacking defense per se, so I'm innately at odds with the model, still not sold on the D coaching until it proves to be somewhat ingenius otherwise, knowing our DL especially at DT is not deep and maybe some studly play emerges - no?

So we'll see. One thing for sure though, I am expecting a team that has toughened up a ton and has heart, with deadbeats now gone to fight like **** and leave it all on the field. Win or lose, an all out effort the players can be proud of, and us fans too.
 
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ball915 said:
117th in defense will finish no higher than 50th at the high this year if lucky. can't win the close and tough games with a liability of that nature.
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Still with the 117th in defense stuff.

Lead with your best argument, not the lesser relevant one.

Top 10 in Total Defense for 2012
(http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2012&div=B&rpt=IA_teamtotdef&site=org)

1. Bama (13-1)
2. FSU (12-2)
3. BYU (8-5)
4. Mich St (7-6)
5. UF (11-2)
6. Bowling Green (8-5)
7. Notre Dame (12-1)
8. LSU (10-3)
9. UConn (5-7)
10. Rutgers (9-4)

Overall Win-Loss 95-36 (72.5%)
Removing the outlier (UConn) 90-29 (75.6%)

Bottom 5 Total Defense

116. Miami (7-5)
117. Colorado (1-11)
118. Arizona (8-5)
119. Baylor (8-5)
120. La Tech (9-3)

Overall Win-Loss 33-29 (53.23%)
Removing the outlier (Colorado) 32-18 (64%)

Top 10 Scoring Defense 2012
(http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2012&div=B&rpt=IA_teamscordef&site=org)

1. Bama (13-1)
2. ND (12-1)
3. BYU (8-5)
4. Rutgers (9-4)
5. UF (11-2)
6. FSU (12-2)
7. Utah State (11-2)
8. Boise State (11-2)
9. Mich St (7-6)
10. Bowling Green (8-5)

Overall Win-Loss 102 – 30 (77.3%)
Remove the Outlier (Mich St) 95-24 (79.8%)

Bottom 5 Scoring Defense 2012

116. La Tech (9-3)
117. New Mexico St (1-11)
118. Idaho (1-11)
119. Marshall (5-7)
120. Colorado (1-11)

Overall Win-Loss 17-43 (28.3%)
Remove the Outlier (La Tech) 8-40 (16.7%)

What can we learn from the above (with outliers)

There is an increase in winning percentage (Scoring D to Total D) of 4.8%
- 77.3 – 72.5 = 4.8%

The top 10 Total Defense teams have a 19.27% increase in winning percentage over the bottom 5 Total D
- 72.5 - 53.23 = 19.27%

The top 10 Scoring Defense teams have a 49.0% increase in winning percentage over the bottom 5 Scoring D
- 77.3 -28.3 = 49.0%

Bottom 5 Total Defense have a 26.9% increase in winning percentage over the bottom 5 Scoring D
- 53.23 – 28.3 = 26.9%

The above shows why I am not so quick to go nuts about the Total Defense. The Scoring Defense shows the real statistics and the win-loss percentage shows that teams within the Top 10 in Scoring Defense have a better winning percentage than those in the Top 10 in Total Defense.

In addition, it shows that even finishing in the bottom 5 of Total Defense still had a higher winning percentage than that in the bottom 5 of Scoring Defense. Teams within the bottom 5 of Total Defense HAD A WINNING RECORD.

In no way am I condoning the Total Defense, in no way am I saying yards are NOT IMPORTANT. I am just saying Scoring Defense is what matters most. Points are king, points determine the outcome.
 
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I agree that the main issue will be that UM's D is a joke and has no depth. I do not recall any decent UM (10 wins) team much less an NC team with a D raked outside the top 15 or 20. UM has no such D.

BUT, I still have nightmares about how the O, which as you note pretty much returns intact, simply disappeared against any team with a top 30 defense. UM's "offense" laid an egg against KSU, was owned by ND and evaporated against FSU.

And we just hired a new and significantly less experienced OC.

So, can UM win this year? Sure, 9 games, maybe. But until the O shows up in a big game against a top flight defense, I'm not willing to assume that the D is the only issue.



Carolinacaneman said:
Everyone is talking about 2014 and 2015, but why can't Miami win this year? They have an experienced quarterback with talent, one of the best running backs in the country, talented receivers, and pretty much their top seven or eight offensive linemen back. Defensively I have to think they will be better since they cannot be any worse; in fact I feel they will be much improved since the freshmen that were forced to play will now be sophomores. Jenkins, Crawford, Bush, Kirby, and Howard all have the potential to be all-conference. Granted, I do not think they will have a top ten defense, but top fifty or sixty is not out of the question. That should be enough to win the ACC. Florida State has to break in a new QB and V-Tech doesn't scare me. Additional, NC lost one of the conferences best players in Bernard. Clemson is probably the best on paper, but they lost key offensive players in Ellington, Hopkins and Freeman.
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Only problem with this team is D line talent and depth. Maybe LB a little bit as well. those 2 spots could hurt us.
 
crossover22[]_[];1532536 said:
Only problem with this team is D line talent and depth. Maybe LB a little bit as well. those 2 spots could hurt us.
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Agree with this, we at least have some young guys at LB that could make the 2 deep in Figueroa and Grace.
 
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I just want to see improvement. If the defense makes strides then great. I just fear losing the same way we have lost over the last few years. If we lose to fsu and uf because they are simply better than us i can deal with that. But we need to not lose stupid...if that makes sense. Win the games you're supposed too...no more UVA garbage.
 
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Season hinges in Porter and Pierre staying healthy, and coming up with decent backups. Hopefully Luther can keep doing what he did in the spring. I don't think there will nearly as many freshman mistakes in the back seven, mainly because there won't be as many freshmen.
 
ball915 said:
117th in defense will finish no higher than 50th at the high this year if lucky. can't win the close and tough games with a liability of that nature.
Click to expand...


With our offense, if we can get to 50th in defense we will be unstoppable. If we were 50th last year we prob go undefeated.
 
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