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Week 6 Stat Roll

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RozayCane said:
TVD really made Dawson look much worse than he was.

Also, if Dawson knew how to call runs other than up the gut, (I understand the OL hasn’t been great) we might be talking about one of the goat offenses, based on numbers alone.
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Well based on numbers alone we are talking about one of the goat offenses of all time through 6 games so far
 
brock said:
Well based on numbers alone we are talking about one of the goat offenses of all time through 6 games so far
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This.

590 yards per game for a season would be the best number in at least 8 years and probably more.

We have put up at least 508 yards of offense in every single game so far this year. Last year’s LSU team, for example, with a Heisman winner and 2 first round WRs, did it 9 times in 13 games. We are 6/6 so far.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
This.

590 yards per game for a season would be the best number in at least 8 years and probably more.

We have put up at least 508 yards of offense in every single game so far this year. Last year’s LSU team, for example, with a Heisman winner and 2 first round WRs, did it 9 times in 13 games. We are 6/6 so far.
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Think as the season goes on more teams are gonna concede the run and play 2-high like Cal did. We forced some throws and weren't patient and dedicated enough in the run game. We've run the ball well the last two weeks though - I'll die on this hill. I wager we can run against anybody who only puts 6 in the box against us.

Brown and George can play much better in the passing game. Getting Rivers back will not only help our pass and run blocking, but will allow us to send Arroyo out in more pass plays when he's lined up tight. We're due to hit some deep shots too.

Analytic wise we compare favorably to '19 LSU on offense so far:

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Limiting negative plays and turnovers on offense will play to our Ds strengths as we'll be playing from ahead more. The blown assignments are fixable, which should limit the huge chunk plays. Think our biggest weakness on D is getting bullied in the run game, but if we're playing from ahead eventually teams gotta chuck it.

Long story short: this offense is already historically good and can get even better by the end of the year.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Pretty insane but it’s not exactly your daddy’s Navy offense. Wanna hear a crazy one? Navy is averaging more yards PASSING than Oklahoma.

Still nuts they’re so good on offense, though. You’re right.
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True. Them and Army both have pretty legit quarterbacks this year.
 
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Game On Paper -

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@OrangeBowlMagic

We're pretty much elite at ALOT OF THINGS, but rush explosion and average distance on offense and explosion plays on D (DUHHHHHHH...Have to fix this)

But listening to Cover 3 and if someone else can confirm this - Bud Elliot mentioned that explosion rate follows success rate, thus our explosion rate will drop to closely match our success rate since its far better and not the other way around.

I MIGHT be high on optimism, but if Guidry can make the adjustments to slow down explosive plays...we MIGHT be unstoppable.
 
flips said:
Think as the season goes on more teams are gonna concede the run and play 2-high like Cal did. We forced some throws and weren't patient and dedicated enough in the run game. We've run the ball well the last two weeks though - I'll die on this hill. I wager we can run against anybody who only puts 6 in the box against us.

Brown and George can play much better in the passing game. Getting Rivers back will not only help our pass and run blocking, but will allow us to send Arroyo out in more pass plays when he's lined up tight. We're due to hit some deep shots too.

Analytic wise we compare favorably to '19 LSU on offense so far:

View attachment 306643

View attachment 306644
Limiting negative plays and turnovers on offense will play to our Ds strengths as we'll be playing from ahead more. The blown assignments are fixable, which should limit the huge chunk plays. Think our biggest weakness on D is getting bullied in the run game, but if we're playing from ahead eventually teams gotta chuck it.

Long story short: this offense is already historically good and can get even better by the end of the year.
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Except for the VT game we've been pretty good in the run game. I don't see a team left on the schedule that can bully us in that department.

What I do see are teams that can spread us out and force our DBs to make quick reads. Louisville, GT and Syracuse are better versions of what has already given us trouble, which is concerning.
 
C A N S said:
Except for the VT game we've been pretty good in the run game. I don't see a team left on the schedule that can bully us in that department.

What I do see are teams that can spread us out and force our DBs to make quick reads. Louisville, GT and Syracuse are better versions of what has already given us trouble, which is concerning.
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Fair points. I think our issues in the pass game are manageable. We can do a much better job executing our assignments, getting pass catchers to the ground, and bending but not breaking. Whether we get better there remains to be seen.

I was shocked at how much VT rag dolled our interior DL - it wasn't just the backups; they were moving Barrow and Mesidor with ease too. We're really lacking size - pause - up the middle, and thus far 2 out of our 3 portal DTs haven't played well.

You're right on the schedule, GT probably the best running team we'll face. Louisville will be a challenge in the run game, as while they haven't been consistent running the ball they have produced a fair amount of explosive runs. Issac Brown looked really good last week. Wake can run okay but their defense is so bad they should be playing from behind.

My worry with the run defense is come ACC championship game if its Clemson and if/when we play strong running teams if we're fortunate enough to get in the playoff. I don't think there's any fixing our issues on the interior DL this year, but our offense is so good if we limit our turnovers and negative plays we should be playing from ahead enough that we can force teams to abandon the run.
 
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flips said:
Fair points. I think our issues in the pass game are manageable. We can do a much better job executing our assignments, getting pass catchers to the ground, and bending but not breaking. Whether we get better there remains to be seen.

I was shocked at how much VT rag dolled our interior DL - it wasn't just the backups; they were moving Barrow and Mesidor with ease too. We're really lacking size - pause - up the middle, and thus far 2 out of our 3 portal DTs haven't played well.

You're right on the schedule, GT probably the best running team we'll face. Louisville will be a challenge in the run game, as while they haven't been consistent running the ball they have produced a fair amount of explosive runs. Issac Brown looked really good last week. Wake can run okay but their defense is so bad they should be playing from behind.

My worry with the run defense is come ACC championship game if its Clemson and if/when we play strong running teams if we're fortunate enough to get in the playoff. I don't think there's any fixing our issues on the interior DL this year, but our offense is so good if we limit our turnovers and negative plays we should be playing from ahead enough that we can force teams to abandon the run.
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Matches up with Louisville -

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What they do well, we've been poor defending against.
 
CaneLife93 said:
Matches up with Louisville -

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What they do well, we've been poor defending against.
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Yup they produce a lot of pass & run explosives. I hope 4-3 is our base defense going forward, except when other team has 4+ WR on the field. 3rd LBer should help limit the explosive edge runs that killed us against VT. Worked pretty well in second half against Cal; thought we shoulda put a 3rd LBer on the field against VT too.

Chaney hasn't been good for them against the 3 real teams they've played (29 for 82 yds). He'll be my barometer for how well the middle of our defense is holding up against their OL. If he's having success inside we're going to have to be really efficient on offense.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
As always, these numbers only reflect FBS vs FBS competition.

Offense:

Yards per play: 1st (8.23 YPP) -- Some context: Navy nipping at our heels at 8.22, but still almost half a yard clear of 3rd (Alabama - 7.83)
Yards per game: 1st (590.8 YPG) -- Some context: We are FIFTY-THREE yards better than the #2 team (Ole Miss - 537.8)
Points per game: 3rd (46.0 PPG)
Passing yards per game: 1st (415.2 YPG) -- Some context: We are FIFTY-EIGHTyards better than the #2 team (Syracuse - 357.3)
Passing completion percentage: 12th (69.2%)
Passing yards per attempt: 6th (10.3 YPA)
Passer rating: 6th (180.48)
Passing TDs: 1st (18 TDs)
Rushing yards per game: 45th (175.6 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt: 12th (5.56 YPA)
Rushing TDs: 14th (12)
Sacks given up per game: 45th (1.4 per game)
3rd down conversion %: 1st (59.0%) -- This is a completely absurd number. In the past 8 FULL SEASONS, the best number is 58%. Bama in 2020.
4th down conversion %: 8th (83.3%, 5 for 6 on the season)
TFLs allowed per game: 17th (3.8 per game)
Red Zone TD %: 18th (76.0% TD rate, 19 TDs in 25 chances) -- 2023: 96th, 2022: 121st, 2021: 78th, 2020: 72nd. Hello, Cam Ward
Red Zone Scoring %: 36th (23 scores in 25 chances)
Field goal %: 23rd (8 for 9)
PAT %: 1st (34 for 34)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (108) 10 clear of 2nd place
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (47) 11 clear of 2nd place
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 6th (15)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 10th (8)

Defense:

Yards per play allowed: 34th (5.08 YPP)
Points per game allowed: 32nd (20.8 PPG)
Passing yards per game allowed: 45th (203.8 YPG)
Passing completion percentage allowed: 27th (56.6%)
Passing yards per attempt: 33rd (6.4 YPA)
Passer rating allowed: 20th (112.01)
Rushing yards per game allowed: 13th (97.2 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 31st (3.55 YPA)
Sacks per game: 12th (3.0 sacks per game)
3rd down % allowed: 24th (32.26% allowed)
4th down % allowed: 36th (42.8% allowed)
TFLs per game: 22nd (7.4 per game)
Red Zone td % allowed: 46th (54.6% allowed -- 6 TDs in 11 chances)
Red Zone Scoring % allowed: 16th (62.5% allowed -- 8 scores in 11 chances)
Punting: 37th (44.3 Yard average) -- We have punted 10 times in 6 games. Only 2 teams in America have less (Army, ULL), both have played 1 less game
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 62nd (59)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 64th (19)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 39th (7)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 107th (7)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 132nd (7) -- I HATE IT


Team Stats:

Penalties: 94th (7.2 penalties per game)
Penalty yards: 125th (78.6 Yards per game)
Turnover margin: 57th (+0.20 per game -- 7 takeaways, 6 giveaways) -- Not many good teams this poor here. 7 takeaways in 6 games is not good.
Time of possession: 6th (34:01 per game)
Number of offensive plays: (Avg 71.8 plays per game)

Takeaways:

Another game, another absurd performance by our quarterback. Just look at those offensive numbers. We're good at literally everything, except maybe rushing yards per game, but between the lack of TFLs and decent job by our backs, we still rank very high in yards per carry. Cam Ward is simply that dude, period. And Mario is doing what a lot of us said he would, he's giving Dawson the full autonomy to do whatever he wants in building the entire offense arguably the best quarterback in the country. Read that one more time. Mario Cristobal's football team has arguably the best quarterback in the country, and is having one of the most prolific passing seasons in the history of the sport. What a time to be alive. Really not much more to say about this offense, it's literally national championship good. Yeah, I said it. Even in our "worst" offensive game of the year in terms of yards per play, we still got 6.69 a clip against a very good defense (I think the world of Wilcox and Sirmon as defensive coaches), in their house, in the biggest game they've played in a decade, at night, coming off a bye week, with Gameday in town. I know it's not apples to apples because of what the programs are traditionally, but think about the atmosphere and attitude of the team in 2018 when Notre Dame came to town. That was the psyche of that team we played Saturday night, they had EVERYTHING going for them......and Cam Ward had the most total yards by any one player in a 4th quarter since 2017. Just a ridiculous player and he's surrounded by a ton of talent in a scheme that fits him perfectly. There's really not much more you can say about the offense. The numbers speak for themselves. I thought we'd push for a top 10 offense in the country, genuinely. I thought that was in the realm of possibility with this QB/staff/collection of talent. And they have blown me away so far with how good they've been. I cannot wait to watch this group play again, it's just incredible to think how we looked in 2022 vs how we look today.

On defense.....ugh. The numbers continue to slide, as you'd expect. HOWEVER.....on a play to play basis, we're not bad. I said a dozen times over the summer when we were discussing the season outlook that you don't need to be completely elite on both sides of the ball in order to be a championship caliber team. Very, very few teams in history have Top 5 or Top 10 offenses AND defenses. You need to usually have one elite unit that carries your water, and a complimentary unit on the other side that's solid. And in a lot of ways, we have that. The numbers aren't bad, top to bottom. But then you get to the explosives, and they are just killing this team right now. In 2023, we gave up 6 plays of 50+ yards. In 13 games. In 2024, we have given up SEVEN plays of 50+ yards. In 6 games. That is flat-out unacceptable, obviously, and it's really the one thing that is not firing on all cylinders right now for this football team. I'm not trying to break balls here because I started to come around to the idea too, but all those months of trying to convince ourselves that losing 2 NFL safeties might lower the ceiling of the secondary but could raise the floor because of how they played......yeahhhhhh, that was an egregious lie. These kids have genuinely stunk thus far, and it's really hurting us badly. I can't even imagine what a truly elite offense would do to the back-end of this defense right now. It'd be hard to watch. I'm really hoping the bye week gives everyone a chance to reset, get healthy, and do some self-scouting and soul-searching. Because we gotta find kids who can tackle and who have eye discipline. And, like, right now. Maybe some of the freshmen start to earn some PT. Maybe Mr. Brown can get his back soon. We desperately need him. But, not all is lost. I still trust Guidry. I love his adjustments. We still have some very solid numbers overall. We just gotta stop giving up 11 completions for 280 yards to a team who couldn't score against FSU's defense. It's gotta start next week at Louisville.

Overall, this is by far the best these numbers have looked in as long as I can remember. The offense is disgusting right now. Getting Bain back should really help the defense overall, and I think getting a bye will help Baron recharge as well. Those two, with a healthy Alston (maybe?) should give offenses fits. Barrow has been very, very good. Mid to late October is usually when you start to see some freshmen emerge. Maybe a kid like Justin Scott can start to flash. MC Cole got into the game last week. We have the talent to win this conference, full stop. The defense just has to hold up their end of the bargain, because right now, if we have just an above-average quarterback, we're 4-2. And that's not acceptable against this schedule. (Even though it's the strongest thus far of any undefeated team, but shhhhhh, the haters don't like that).

Get healthy. Get rest. Find a DB who is willing to get someone on the ground. And continue to give the ball to #1 as many times as you possibly can. He is truly, truly special. Never in my life did I think Miami would have the best offense in the country at the halfway mark of a season. Enjoy the **** out of this, friends. We're witnessing a truly special football player. I just hope the defense gives him what he deserves and lets him sit up on that stage being honored by the Downtown Athletic Club in New York City as an ACC Champion.

Go Canes.
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Thanks man! The offense is in another galaxy right now. That 3rd down conversion % is insane!

As for the defense....There's some really bad numbers there but it's not as bad as I thought in some places. @OrangeBowlMagic Do you have the Total Defense(Yards allowed per game) rank? I know it but it's the one including FAMU. What's our Total Defense rank without FAMU?
 
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I am not one to get too analytical over the numbers, I'm just looking at overall defense and the spider charts.

For reference, at this point in the season the toughest defenses we have played have been VT at 33 and Cal who is now 55th after facing us. Both would probably have a lot better numbers had they not been worked over by Cam and the boys

So, what do we have left?

Louisville currently 73rd - struggling to defend the pass and limit explosive plays

FSU currently 96th - stinks at everything besides limiting explosive runs

Duke currently 21st - on paper the best defense we will face however SOS may be masking their deficiencies, they have had trouble limiting explosive pass and run plays. I think they come back to earth as they enter a more difficult stretch of conference play.

GT currently 94th - really struggling to defend in the passing game, pretty good against the run. Still bad overall.

Wake currently 125th - They are really bad, like Ball State bad

Syracuse currently 103rd - Slightly below average across the board, likely makes it easy to scheme them up since they don't really have a strength to lean on and can be exploited multiple ways

Bottomline: Aside from a suspect Duke the rest of the defenses we play are nothing close to the quality of the two we just faced and absolutely worked for large stretches in those games. If this offense makes it through the next two games without a hiccup, then expect Cam and the Canes to break all the records. I'm not predicting blow out wins in every game remaining on the schedule, the defense still has a lot to clean up. What I do believe is that we are going to break 500 yards of offense every single game this season and end the year averaging over 45 pts a game.
 
FrancisSawyer said:
Thanks man! The offense is in another galaxy right now. That 3rd down conversion % is insane!

As for the defense....There's some really bad numbers there but it's not as bad as I thought in some places. @OrangeBowlMagic Do you have the Total Defense(Yards allowed per game) rank? I know it but it's the one including FAMU. What's our Total Defense rank without FAMU?
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The defense has actually been very effective on a per play basis but they have been absolutely killed by big plays. Too many 20 yard gains turn into 50 yard gains against us. I know it sounds over simplistic a handful of bad angles and missed tackles have really hurt the overall numbers.
 
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