forums

Week 10 Stat Roll

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

CEO
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Messages
15,533
As always, these are only numbers from FBS vs FBS competion

Offense:

Yards per play: 1st (7.71 YPP) -- Gap widened from #2 after last week, there are only 9 teams total in the last 9 seasons to average 7.71 or more for a season.
Yards per game: 1st (557.9 YPG) -- Only 3 teams in the country averaging over 500+ a game. We are at 557. Incredible.
Points per game: 1st (46.4 PPG) -- Only 4 power conference teams in the last 9 seasons have averaged at least 46.4 per game for a season.
Passing yards per game: 2nd (376.3 YPG) -- Only 9 teams averaging 300+, we are at 376.
Passing completion percentage: 17th (67.1%)
Passing yards per attempt: 4th (9.7 YPA)
Passer rating: 5th (174.6)
Passing TDs: 1st (28 TDs) -- Texas is 2nd with 23
Rushing yards per game: 38th (181.6 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt: 12th (5.40 YPA)
Rushing TDs: 16th (19)
Sacks given up per game: 67th (2.00 per game)
3rd down conversion %: 1st (57.8%) -- Mind-blowing. 2nd place is 53.7%. I can't even articulate how good ~58% is. Literally historic.
4th down conversion %: 1st (90.91%, 10 for 11 on the season) - So we have the best 3rd down offense in a decade, and when we miss, we are #1 on 4th down.
TFLs allowed per game: 20th (4.13 per game) -- Context: A sack is a TFL. We give up 2 sacks per game. So that means on all other plays, we give up slightly more than 2. Insane ability to gain positive yardage in the run game and short passing game.
Red Zone TD %: 7th (76.92% TD rate, 30 TDs in 39 chances) -- 2023: 96th, 2022: 121st, 2021: 78th, 2020: 72nd. Hello, Cam Ward
Red Zone Scoring %: 22nd (36 scores in 39 chances)
Field goal %: 11th (13 for 14) - Borregales is absolutely money
PAT %: 1st (50 for 50)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (165)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (68) Only 6 teams in America have 50+. 2nd place has 57. We have SIXTY-EIGHT in 8 games. Guess how many we had last year in 12 FBS games? Fifty-Nine.
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 5th (23)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 3rd (14)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 5th (8)
60+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 4th (5)
70+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 5th (3)


Defense:

Yards per play allowed: 40th (5.25 YPP)
Yards per game allowed: 23rd (325.8 YPG)
Points per game allowed: 54th (24.3 PPG)
Passing yards per game allowed: 63rd (225.1 YPG)
Passing completion percentage allowed: 14th (55.5%)
Passing yards per attempt: 29th (6.4 YPA)
Passer rating allowed: 27th (117.03)
Rushing yards per game allowed: 10th (100.63 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 35th (3.78 YPA)
Sacks per game: 20th (2.75 sacks per game)
3rd down % allowed: 10th (31.0% allowed)
4th down % allowed: 77th (57.9% per game)
Red Zone td % allowed: 92nd (67% allowed -- 14 TDs in 21 chances)
Red Zone Scoring % allowed: 70th (85.71% allowed -- 18 scores in 21 chances)
Punting: 46th (44.23 Yard average) -- We have punted 16 times in 8 games. 2nd fewest in the country
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 56th (100)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 84th (37)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 33rd (11)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 97th (10)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 114th (7)


Team Stats:

Penalties: 87th (6.6 penalties per game)
Penalty yards: 123rd (73.1 Yards per game)
Turnover margin: 43rd (+0.38 per game -- 12 takeaways, 9 giveaways)
Time of possession: 6th (33:57 per game)
Number of offensive plays: (Avg 72.4 plays per game)

Takeaways:

There isn't much to say about the offense that hasn't been said all year, and additionally this week. DMoney did his comparison to the best offenses of the past decade, and I am fully convinced Miami is right there. You simply cannot hold this offense down for 60 minutes. We have scored 36 points or more in every single game this season. We have scored 40 six times. We have scored 50 five times. FIVE TIMES IN 9 GAMES! So, the offense is just absurdly good. I've been writing a thesis in this space every week and I'm running out of superlatives. It's the best offense I've ever seen in my life at Miami, and it will keep us in every single game we play against any team in the country.

Overall, we are who we are at this point. We have arguably the very best offense in the country. And we have an average to below average defense to pair it with. The million dollar question here is, going forward, we will likely either have an off game offensively (maybe we only score 30 instead of 40+), or we will run into an elite team. Will the defense be able to get enough stops to win us a game in the event the offense doesn't score 50? ****, let's say we play Oregon, will the defense be able to get enough stops to win us a game if we DO score 50? Remains to be seen. I didn't, in my wildest dreams, really believe we could win a national championship this season as we progressed from Spring ball to fall camp. Now, after seeing this offense 9 times and watching the rest of the country, I truly believe our OFFENSE can win us a national championship. I believe our kicking game is good enough to win us a national championship. Are we going to waste that with this defense being what it is? We shall see. A couple things on the defense: 1) It's been abysmal since we started ACC play overall and 2) the defense has been better in the 2nd half of games.

To Point 1:

Here is where we rank in ACC play only. These are the ranks of all the ACC teams, in games only within conference. Not apples to apples, of course, because with 17 teams not everyone plays nearly the same schedule, but this filters out all the non-conference games for everyone.

Scoring Defense: 14th out of 17 (32.4 PPG allowed)
YPP Allowed: 12th out of 17 (5.92 YPP)
20+ Yard Plays allowed: 14th out of 17 (Tied with UVA for worst by teams with only 5 games played. 31 such plays. Only Louisville and FSU worse, both have played more games)
Opponent 3rd down %: 7th out of 17
Opponent Red Zone TD Percentage: 17th out of 17 (We have allowed 12 TDs on 16 Red Zone trips in 5 games)
Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage: 14th out of 17
Sacks Per Game: 10th out of 17
TFLs: 10th out of 17
Yards Per Carry Allowed: 12th out of 17

So yeah, this ain't good. Now, we don't have to have the best defense in the country in order to make some serious noise. But this is obviously very concerning when you take into account our 5 ACC games have included Duke, FSU, and Cal, which are all in the bottom half of the league offensively. If we get got this year, IMO it's going to be because we give up 40+ and our offense makes some mistakes. Somehow, some way, we gotta get better here.

To Point #2, some hope for a glimmer of optimism. For some reason, Guidry and the defense decide to tighten up after halftime. Here are our 5 ACC performances:

Virginia Tech -- 24 first half points allowed on 6 first half drives (4 points per drive). 10 points allowed on 5 second half drives (2 points per drive)
California -- 21 first half points allowed on 5 drives (4.2 points per drive). 10 points allowed on 6 second half drives (1.67 points per drive)
Louisville -- 17 first half points allowed on 7 drives (2.4 points per drive). 21 points allowed on 4 second half drives (5.25 points per drive)
FSU -- 7 first half points allowed on 3 drives (2.3 points per drive). 7 points allowed on 5 second half drives (1.4 points per drive)
Duke -- 21 first half points on 7 drives (3 points per drive). 10 points allowed on 8 second half drives (1.25 points per drive)

TOTALS: 90 points allowed in the first half on 28 drives (3.21 points per drive). 58 points allowed in the second half on 28 drives (2.07 points per drive).

This is a massive difference. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would imagine 3.21 points per drive would be either the worst in the country or bottom 10, at best. And 2.07 is probably somewhere above average, I would guess in the top third in the country.

So the defense in the first half of games is among the worst in the entire country. And in the 2nd half it's likely among the top 30-40 best. WTF does this guy do in the week prep vs what he does at halftime?
 
Advertisement
1mg of Epi said:
is the defense doing anything different in the second half? Are the offenses trying to run out the clock?
Click to expand...

It’s really hard for me to tell what defenses do without knowing the call. I mean, I can recognize coverage. But there is so much movement and alignment changes I can’t tell you, fundamentally, what he changes from first halves to second halves. I’m sure someone else who understands defense better than me can. I was an offensive guy my whole life.

I do think there is some validity to regression to the mean, and also that our offense puts so much pressure on the opposing offense by continuing to score. You tend to stick to a gameplan early, but when the other offense is gashing you, maybe you deviate somewhat in an effort to catch up.

But it can’t be coincidental that we have given up far less points in the 2nd half in all our games except Louisville. I only did the ACC games, but even in the 2 OOC games vs real schools, we gave up 7 to the gator and 0 to USF in the 2nd half.
 
1mg of Epi said:
is the defense doing anything different in the second half? Are the offenses trying to run out the clock?
Click to expand...
I remeber Guidry's quote from a presser earlier in the year. Basically said, often times in the first half teams do different things than they showed in previous games. In the second half they tend to revert back to style they usually play.
 
Robbymoto said:
I remeber Guidry's quote from a presser earlier in the year. Basically said, often times in the first half teams do different things than they showed in previous games. In the second half they tend to revert back to style they usually play.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I remember that too. But Cal’s offense has sucked in both halves against everyone but us. Duke’s offense has sucked in both halves against everyone but us. How come other DC’s and defenses don’t get gashed by these guys for a half before they “revert to the style they usually play”?

I can’t believe these offenses play the same way for the entire season except for the first half against Miami.
 
Advertisement
Always look forward to these.. also glad you include the conference game numbers so to show the real alarm and the major issue.. our redzone defense we just leave guys wide open.. like nobody knows what the **** is going on..

Like has been mentioned just enjoy this offense, this is incredible. Excited to see the show on road again..
 
Robbymoto said:
I remeber Guidry's quote from a presser earlier in the year. Basically said, often times in the first half teams do different things than they showed in previous games. In the second half they tend to revert back to style they usually play.
Click to expand...
So they stop doing what’s working and instead spend the second half doing what doesn’t work?
 
Advertisement
Incredible work as always

You brought up Borregales which is cool. He has not missed since week 1 I don’t think. Might have been his first attempt as well?
 
JHallCanes said:
Incredible work as always

You brought up Borregales which is cool. He has not missed since week 1 I don’t think. Might have been his first attempt as well?
Click to expand...

Nah it was late. 3rd quarter I think. He made one in the first half. But yes he’s missed 1 kick the entire season and it was in the first game. Hasn’t missed a kick since August.
 
Advertisement
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Nah it was late. 3rd quarter I think. He made one in the first half. But yes he’s missed 1 kick the entire season and it was in the first game. Hasn’t missed a kick since August.
Click to expand...
Also we have faced many teams that have been very successful at blocking kicks… like FSU has been this year

So that’s another stat that gets highly over looked

I’m always grateful for clean special teams play. Seen enough bad special teams play in the past from Miami
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yeah, I remember that too. But Cal’s offense has sucked in both halves against everyone but us. Duke’s offense has sucked in both halves against everyone but us. How come other DC’s and defenses don’t get gashed by these guys for a half before they “revert to the style they usually play”?

I can’t believe these offenses play the same way for the entire season except for the first half against Miami.
Click to expand...
I think there’s 2 points here
1 as Guidry mentioned, opposing offenses do things they haven’t shown on tape. We’ve seen several trick plays.

2 opposing teams know if they don’t score often enough, our offense will blow them away so they pull out all the stops to try an score themselves.
 
Advertisement
CANESCANES said:
Also we have faced many teams that have been very successful at blocking kicks… like FSU has been this year

So that’s another stat that gets highly over looked

I’m always grateful for clean special teams play. Seen enough bad special teams play in the past from Miami
Click to expand...
I get why people are frustrated sometimes with the lack of explosive kick and punt returns but with our offense, I agree. No dumb penalties like running into the kicker, and no muffed punts and I’m good. Dont take the ball away from our offense
 
Thanks for this write up, these are so good.

Our offense is great and it's difficult to ask for more but curious what the offense point spread is from half to half, sim to your breakdown of the defense. Not asking you to do this lol just curious.
I believe we've scored more points in the 2nd half as well, correct?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
It’s really hard for me to tell what defenses do without knowing the call. I mean, I can recognize coverage. But there is so much movement and alignment changes I can’t tell you, fundamentally, what he changes from first halves to second halves. I’m sure someone else who understands defense better than me can. I was an offensive guy my whole life.

I do think there is some validity to regression to the mean, and also that our offense puts so much pressure on the opposing offense by continuing to score. You tend to stick to a gameplan early, but when the other offense is gashing you, maybe you deviate somewhat in an effort to catch up.

But it can’t be coincidental that we have given up far less points in the 2nd half in all our games except Louisville. I only did the ACC games, but even in the 2 OOC games vs real schools, we gave up 7 to the gator and 0 to USF in the 2nd half.
Click to expand...
I think we defend so poorly in the first half most of our opponents have 3 drives where they exhaust their scripted and special plays. They have higher hit rates and we tend to give up some big gainers. In the second half opposing OCs are already really deep in their bag and have to run some more basic stuff or things the offense has not spent as much time on in practice and thus have lower hit rates.
 
CDWright40 said:
I think we defend so poorly in the first half most of our opponents have 3 drives where they exhaust their scripted and special plays. They have higher hit rates and we tend to give up some big gainers. In the second half opposing OCs are already really deep in their bag and have to run some more basic stuff or things the offense has not spent as much time on in practice and thus have lower hit rates.
Click to expand...

Definitely possible. Doesn’t explain why Duke did nothing in the first half vs virtually any of their other opponents. Same with Cal. But I think the real root of this, if you had to just point to one thing, is these are not good offenses, and our defense is also not good. So in the 2nd half of games, they tend to regress to the mean. We’re not a complete sieve on defense, so we’re going to have some success, it just seems to have come much more in 2nd halves vs first halves.

Duke is bad on offense. At some point, they’re going to play poorly. Same with Cal. Same with VT (although they’re better than the other 2). Could be some factor of trams really getting “up” to play us versus other schools, especially now that we’re highly ranked.

Grasping at straws here, but the bottom line is this **** isn’t gonna work long-term. We can’t give up 6 yards a play to bad offenses and expect to beat good ones.

But I do think we will compete with literally anyone with how good this offense is. I will be shocked if we lose a game in a blowout. I just don’t see it. If we lose, it’s going to be 45-38 or something like that. I just don’t see anybody that’s good enough on both sides of the ball to blow us out of the building. Maybe Oregon. But if we play to our capabilities on offense, nobody is holding this team in the 20s. And if we score 30-40, we’d have to get really embarrassed on defense to get blown out. The defense stinks, but I think the line can make enough plays over the course of 10-12 drives to at least get a couple stops. I don’t see anyone scoring 50 on us without major help (pick 6, kickoff return etc)
 
Advertisement
Back
Top