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Ward to the league...or maybe not...who the **** knows...but seriously...what the **** else better do you have to do?

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MumbleRap said:
From everything that’s been said, the assumption I make is this.

Ward & Miami agreed on X amount of money and he was going to be a Cane.

Well that agreement was based on a draft grade in the range of 5-7. Then something neither expected happened, his draft grade (whether you agree or not) came back as a day 2 grade.

The signing bonus + contract (as a day 2/early day 3) is now significantly higher than the amount his side & Miami agreed on. I think he was expecting (as was UM) to be a Cane next year, and if he’s still communicating it’s clear he wants to be…. Just needs to make sure it’s the most compensated decision.
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JustAFanHTX said:
Who knows? All I know is the people saying round 5 or later for him are misguided. I’ve heard 3rd at worst but who knows?
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estimated Rookie Average pay (per year for 4 years) by pick (

2.1 will make $2.74M/yr
2.32 will make $1.68M/yr
3.1 will make $1.59M/yr
3.37 will make $1.45M/yr
4.33 will make $1.26M/yr
5.45 will make $1.079M/yr
6.39 will make $1.045M/yr
7.39 will make $1.028m/yr

Keep in mind while they get a signing bonus that really isn't indicative of what they actually make year 1. While technically they get the signing bonus, you have to keep in mind the actual yr1 pay is actually less than average because it progressively increases. That means us offering someone $1.5M is equivalent to more than their first year pay as the first pick in the 3rd round. $2.5M might be more than the first year pay for the top pick in the 2nd round..

So Then what does this tell us for a QB making the decision to leave early? It tell me there is a MAJOR difference in being a 2nd round pick and not. The difference between the first pick in the 2nd and the last in the 2nd is over $1M/yr. The difference between the First pick in the 3rd and the last pick in the draft is only really like $550k/yr (so $2.2M in total). So sure over 4 years thats a big difference, but being a 3rd round pick for a QB is not something that is really all that different than being a 5th as far as pay is concerned is the point I'm making. Sure it means the team has more invested in you, but it's on a whole other level than being a 2nd round pick as far as how the team views their investment also.

So the question should REALLY be is Ward going to be a 2nd rounder or not? Cause if he isn't going to be a 2nd rounder, A) he should return to try to work his way into the 2nd round or even better the 1st - and not being in a draft that could have 4-5 QBs go in the 1st round would be helpful. B) we would almost certainly pay him more than his real 1yr pay - even if he was the first pick in the 3rd round. I believe our offer is at least $1.5M. Thats as good or better than any 3rd round pick will get this year. Now then you have to factor in how likely he is even to be a 2nd rounder, 3rd, etc. I'd say he's far more likely to be a 4th or 5th than he is a 2nd. So him getting paid better than any 3rd rounder at Miami is a very good financial decision for him to return. He really wouldn't be risking much financially by returning. In fact if we are offering him $1.5M or more, it's in his financial interest to come to Miami
 
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Suhrthing said:
What's the source his grade came back 2nd? And if he believes so why is he still fuccin with Miami and not getting ready for the combine?
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Late day 2/early day 3. I’d say the 3-4 round is what it came back as (just a hunch).

He’s still talking with Miami for the same reason Ewers is returning. Same reason Penix/Daniels came back. He believes he can be a 1st rounder.

Just need to make sure if it goes south next year, he was compensated.
 
MumbleRap said:
Late day 2/early day 3. I’d say the 3-4 round is what it came back as (just a hunch).

He’s still talking with Miami for the same reason Ewers is returning. Same reason Penix/Daniels came back. He believes he can be a 1st rounder.

Just need to make sure if it goes south next year, he was compensated.
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he won't be a first rounder if he comes to mario ball.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
estimated Rookie Average pay (per year for 4 years) by pick

2.1 will make $2.74M/yr
2.32 will make $1.68M/yr
3.1 will make $1.59M/yr
3.37 will make $1.45M/yr
4.33 will make $1.26M/yr
5.45 will make $1.079M/yr
6.39 will make $1.045M/yr
7.39 will make $1.028m/yr
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The difference is that signing bonus is guaranteed.
If he got a 3rd round draft grade he’s going to make over $1Ms for signing and in the ball park of $2.5M total if he makes roster YEAR ONE.

That’s higher than what UM and his camp expected. Just the way everything reads, Miami needs to up the ante. That $2Ms ain’t cutting it.
 
MumbleRap said:
The difference is that signing bonus is guaranteed.
If he got a 3rd round draft grade he’s going to make over $1Ms for signing and in the ball park of $2.5M total if he makes roster YEAR ONE.

That’s higher than what UM and his camp expected. Just the way everything reads, Miami needs to up the ante. That $2Ms ain’t cutting it.
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…but he will get the signing bonus next year or this year. Thats why the average pay over the contract is what is actually relevant to anyone who actually is looking at this logically. Obviously you get $3M+ up front for being a 3rd or whatever, but on a per year basis getting $1.5M AND ability to improve draft stock and this pay significantly is still absolutely financially better than a 4th or later. I’d say a 3rd too but at least I can see some debate. Saying otherwise would be denying any long term thought though. And idgaf what his grade was, it is no guarantee he’s even a 3rd. And it is almost certain he won’t be a 2nd.

Literally the only question is A) is he gunna be a 2nd rounder this year, and B) will him playing for us Harm his draft stock?

I think him playing for us will help his draft stock. And I think next year he has a higher probability of being a top 2 round pick given he won’t have sure fire 1st rounders like Caleb, Maye, Daniel’s, and likely Penix. Then possibly Nix, and even McCarthy. And I’d say Rattler probably gets drafted above him too. The. You got a guy like Michael Pratt.

Like next yr his competition would be Weigman, ewers, shadeur sanders, Beck, Preston Stone, Riley Leonard,… I k ow which group I’d rather be up against to end up a top 2 round pick…
 
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calinative umstudent said:
…but he will get the signing bonus next year or this year. Thats why the average pay over the contract is what is actually relevant to anyone who actually is looking at this logically. Obviously you get $3M+ up front for being a 3rd or whatever, but on a per year basis getting $1.5M AND ability to improve draft stock and this pay significantly is still absolutely financially better than a 4th or later. I’d say a 3rd too but at least I can see some debate. Saying otherwise would be denying any long term thought though. And idgaf what his grade was, it is no guarantee he’s even a 3rd. And it is almost certain he won’t be a 2nd.

Literally the only question is A) is he gunna be a 2nd rounder this year, and B) will him playing for us Harm his draft stock?

I think him playing for us will help his draft stock. And I think next year he has a higher probability of being a top 2 round pick given he won’t have sure fire 1st rounders like Caleb, Maye, Daniel’s, and likely Penix. Then possibly Nix, and even McCarthy. And I’d say Rattler probably gets drafted above him too. The. You got a guy like Michael Pratt.

Like next yr his competition would be Weigman, ewers, shadeur sanders, Beck, Preston Stone, Riley Leonard,… I k ow which group I’d rather be up against to end up a top 2 round pick…
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Correct, but in the off chance… what if something goes wrong? What if he has an injury or declines and ends up being 7th rounder/UDFA? He is securing his future this offseason.
 
Our luck he will finally enroll at UM, turn into a cancer after all this drama, and have a mediocre at best year - its the Miami way.
 
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