Game has settled at -3. It will likely sit in that neighborhood all week unless one of the major betting groups gets involved. There are still a couple of them out there and they can have considerable influence, particularly early in the season when the oddsmakers are concerned about soft numbers.
When I was full time in Las Vegas and involved in the betting scene I always knew who was responsible for the moves, whether it was Billy Walters' Computer Boys or Artie Bodendorfer's group or the Poker Boys, etc. Sometimes I'd get advanced warning on who they who going to play, from one of their runners. These days I'm not as well informed. But if you see college betting numbers jumping all over the place, moving a point or more, particularly on a Thursday, it's due to one of the major groups. Their basis might be a computer program or any number of factors. There's no reason to be alarmed or to try to make sense of it. They bet dozens of games and hope to grind a profit.
BTW, currently the money line is relatively low at Florida -145, Miami +125. That's not good value for taking the underdog. A 3 point spread in college football normally offers the underdog +130 or +135 on the money line. I see lots of infrequent bettors try to make a point by refusing the points and taking the money line. That's fine as long as there is corresponding value. In this case you're robbing yourself if you take +125 when +3 points are available, and possibly +3.5 later in the week. The idea is to make the correct choice as often as possible.
