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Upon Further Review- Major Applewhite

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Lance Roffers said:
Hey, thanks for the kinds words. Excellent question on Yards Per Play, why my focus was more on Points Per Play when I focused more on Yards Per Play in the DC thread etc. Please allow me to share my reasoning a little further:

1. Honestly, I try to do a lot of research into the things I write about and Points Per Play is becoming a better metric for evaluating offenses. It measures explosiveness and ability to actually score TD's rather than an ability to move the ball between the 20's. For instance, last year, Miami had a pretty good Yards Per Play metric. They also were pretty poor in Points Per Play. I spent time on the topic and calculated the data:
View attachment 75307

So why is Yards Per Play a better metric for defense than offense? My research indicates it ties heavily with 3rd downs. The play caller (OC) has a greater impact on keeping drives alive on that down than the DC does in preventing 1st downs. Yards Per Play is a pretty good proxy for Points Per Play, but the data suggests the way I took the study as the more prevalent factor.

*Note* These figures are in relation to their peers, so no FCS games, P5 vs. only other P5 teams and G5 teams vs. only other G5 teams etc.

2. You indicated that the highest correlation is probably with Yards Per Play, but that is not correct in my research. I didn't run a linear regression, so these figures are not correlation marks, but rather percentage of winning games.
  • Teams who won the Points Per Play metric win the game 86% of the time.
  • Teams who won the Success Rate metric win the game 83% of the time.
  • Teams who won the Turnover battle win the game 73% of the time.
  • Teams who won the Field Position battle win the game 72% of the time.
  • Teams who won the Yards Per Play metric win the game 68% of the time.
*Note* In the interest of intellectual honesty I must point out that it's fairly intuitive that Points Per Play would most highly correlate with winning games because it is the only metric that uses the only item that judges wins/losses (Points).

3. The reason I included a film review with the data is partly to help understand the amount of times the OC put players in position to succeed and they did not execute a play that should be fairly easy for a DI player. Hopefully I presented that information in a fair and unbiased way.

You bring good points- and I did try to point out that Applewhite did not fare especially great in Yards Per Play- but hopefully this sheds a little more light into why I took the OC the direction I did and the research put in. When you're writing an article designed for a specific audience you are looking to present information in an easily digestible way without going too heavily into the "why." Imagine the length of the post if I were to add this much detail to the methodology before I even got into the review. I get a lot of feedback about "Too Long;Didn't Read" already as it is.

PS- Forgot a question- The reason 30 points per game is important is the percentage of a team winning while scoring 30 points a game goes up exponentially, it's a nice round number, and it's the number that most coaches state they want to average. That part wasn't mean to be super scientific and I didn't point that out, so that is my bad.
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****!! @Lance Roffers, wow, dude you’re in the right profession!
I appreciate you taking the time to educate myself and the rest of the guys that are interested in this “philosophy”... if I’m saying it correctly. Thanks, and @g8rh8rMD, you’re not bad yourself, Dr...
 
LustNCanes said:
****!! @Lance Roffers, wow, dude you’re in the right profession!
I appreciate you taking the time to educate myself and the rest of the guys that are interested in this “philosophy”... if I’m saying it correctly. Thanks, and @g8rh8rMD, you’re not bad yourself, Dr...
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Hah! Thanks. Actually, the MD stands for Maryland, where I lived for over 20 years before moving back to FL about a year ago. I am not an actual doctor.
 
g8rh8rMD said:
Hah! Thanks. Actually, the MD stands for Maryland, where I lived for over 20 years before moving back to FL about a year ago. I am not an actual doctor.
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Got it.... from Maryland back to FL, good for you! Hopefully, by next year,” we will be looking to move to FL ourselves. Thank you, brother!
 
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Just to wrap things up:

1. It’s important for me to note I am not a reporter. I am an analyst. My job is to analyze and it is the job of others on staff to report. I have zero sources. I live in Springfield, MO and do not know anyone on staff. Technically I know a couple of people associated with the program from my days as an undergrad with a Sports Management degree and there is one former player from here. (I point this out in case I reference that at another time and this post gets dug up as a rebuttal). I spent the time I did based on a couple of reports it will be Applewhite.

2. Even if Applewhite isn’t the guy hired, it is obvious he was a choice of Diaz. Since it wasn’t especially popular, I think it adds some value to review the candidate to get a handle on the quality of decisions that Coach Diaz might be making regarding his staff.

3. I’m guessing something behind the scenes is causing the hold up. One way or another.
 
If not him, it will be someone who's going to run a similar kind of offense. You can pretty much tell that from the general description Diaz gave for what he's looking for. I know Diaz is unproven as a head coach, but he does tend to back up what he says he'll do, at least on defense. He came in promising a more aggressive defense, and it was. He wanted to fix third down conversions, he did. He knows a better offense puts a lot of stress not only on opponents' defenses, but also on their offenses, if they get behind in the game. A bad offense keeps teams in the game that should have been put away. The fact that all the team had to do was score 28 points a game to go 10-1 and winning the Coastal says a lot.
 
g8rh8rMD said:
****. Thank you, sir. Really appreciate the explanation and education.

One question left: Texas was the only job where Applewhite had a lower PPP metric than the prior OC. Why do you think that was?

Again, thanks. Just amazing stuff.
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Not trying to explain anything away. But, Major (and Manny's) stint with Texas was during the period where Mack Brown lost control and went into the tank (not to say Major and Manny don't deserve some blame for that). It seems the whole Texas program became increasingly problematic at that time. The prior OC coincided with Colt McCoy
 
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g8rh8rMD said:
Hah! Thanks. Actually, the MD stands for Maryland, where I lived for over 20 years before moving back to FL about a year ago. I am not an actual doctor.
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Not sure what about my post makes you angry @DerekDohrman, but I would change my screen name if I could. I lived in MD for over 22 years and have been using this screen name going back at least 10-15 years, starting on PSN. Unfortunately, but understandably, this site doesn't let you change your name and now that it's something I've been using for so long, well it is what it is. If I could I'd probably go to g8rh8rMD->FL.
 
g8rh8rMD said:
Not sure what about my post makes you angry @DerekDohrman, but I would change my screen name if I could. I lived in MD for over 22 years and have been using this screen name going back at least 10-15 years, starting on PSN. Unfortunately, but understandably, this site doesn't let you change your name and now that it's something I've been using for so long, well it is what it is. If I could I'd probably go to g8rh8rMD->FL.
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ive been operating under false assumptions that you were a doctor this entire time. i will now have to take your posts 1/8th less seriously.
 
DerekDohrman said:
ive been operating under false assumptions that you were a doctor this entire time. i will now have to take your posts 1/8th less seriously.
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Do with it what you will. I've never claimed to be a Dr. and have talked at length about myself personally, my time in MD and my move back to FL on these boards over the years. When I made the move, I looked into changing the name since my profile wouldn't say I lived in MD anymore, but found I couldn't change it. Sorry if you felt misled. I've actually also been clear about my profession in commercial real estate in posts as well, in particular when that dude with the huge desk was representing himself as the hold up for the construction of the IPF. I've never really had any comments regarding medicine except to express my concern about rumors that Miami players and former players have not been happy with their treatment under the current medical staff. Even with that, I never said anything other than I had concerns as a fan of the team.

Cheers, man.
 
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Lance Roffers said:
Just to wrap things up:

1. It’s important for me to note I am not a reporter. I am an analyst. My job is to analyze and it is the job of others on staff to report. I have zero sources. I live in Springfield, MO and do not know anyone on staff. Technically I know a couple of people associated with the program from my days as an undergrad with a Sports Management degree and there is one former player from here. (I point this out in case I reference that at another time and this post gets dug up as a rebuttal). I spent the time I did based on a couple of reports it will be Applewhite.

2. Even if Applewhite isn’t the guy hired, it is obvious he was a choice of Diaz. Since it wasn’t especially popular, I think it adds some value to review the candidate to get a handle on the quality of decisions that Coach Diaz might be making regarding his staff.

3. I’m guessing something behind the scenes is causing the hold up. One way or another.
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when can we expect your in depth breakdowns of Scott's, Fedora's Bendenbaugh's, Yost's, Fisch's, Harrell's offenses? :p
 
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On paper, there is enough talent on the offensive side to have an above-average to good offense in year 1 of a brand new system.

QB- Grad transfer/4* JW
RB 4* DJ, Cam, 5* Lingawd
WR- 4* Hightower, 5* Pope, 3* Wiggins
TE- 4* Jordan, Mallory
LT- Butler (highly recruited GT)
LG- 4* Reed
C- 3* Gaynor
RG- 4* Donaldson
RT- 4* Scaife

A new system that actually fits our personnel (similar to when Manny came with the defense) should have an immediate impact.
 
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