Turnover margin - giveaway, takeaway, or dumb luck?

[theEMPIRE]

Stats can always be turned and manipulated.

However, when this defense was applying pressure, it forced turnovers. When you do that, the "bend don't break" defense that a team like New Orleans rode all the way to the Super Bowl, suddenly doesn't look so bad. No pressure, no turnovers, no bueno.

Turnover margin might not be an end all be all, but it sure does allow a team a better opportunity to overcome their faults.

Yup. & It depends who you ask...

If you ask UF about all 5 of their turnovers last year...

They were all "Giveaways." F*ckin' Gators. 3rd down is big too -- held them under 50%


I always saw turnovers as particularly huge in regards to momentum -- Killing and sparking.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

I don't think it matters if turnovers are giveaways or takeaways. Good teams don't turn the ball over. It all comes back to coaching and discipline.

Whether it's a running back getting stripped because he has poor ball-security, a QB getting strip-sacked because of poor pass protection and ball-security, or a QB forcing a pass into a tight window and it getting tipped for the pick, good teams hold on to the ball.

Even the Florida game. When Burton was stripped in the red-zone to end the half, he had poor ball-security and the defense hustled to the ball. Self-inflicted turnovers are still turnovers. I don't believe in luck. The VT game: Burns got stripped because the VT player hustled and they rallied to the ball.

Great post. Even though you negged me.

 

[JimmyJohnsonsHair]

Largely random and not at all predictive.

 

[capefearcane]

I'm reposting this article here because it discusses Turnovers and their impact on the outcome of a game. In sum, turnovers can be huge. But on average, I think their impact is often over-stated when viewed in isolation of other factors such as explosiveness, 3rd-Down conversions, etc.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

As others have indicated, the timing of the turnover is the more critical question. Turnovers between the 20s are nice. Turnovers inside the 20s are killers.

Wow, great article - will be paying attention to these factors in 2014.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

I'm reposting this article here because it discusses Turnovers and their impact on the outcome of a game. In sum, turnovers can be huge. But on average, I think their impact is often over-stated when viewed in isolation of other factors such as explosiveness, 3rd-Down conversions, etc.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

As others have indicated, the timing of the turnover is the more critical question. Turnovers between the 20s are nice. Turnovers inside the 20s are killers.

So the article basically says that if you score more points than your opponent then you win...did I miss something?

Throw. Catch. Block. Tackle. Cover.

What a simple game this football is.

 

[HurricaneU]

I'm reposting this article here because it discusses Turnovers and their impact on the outcome of a game. In sum, turnovers can be huge. But on average, I think their impact is often over-stated when viewed in isolation of other factors such as explosiveness, 3rd-Down conversions, etc.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

As others have indicated, the timing of the turnover is the more critical question. Turnovers between the 20s are nice. Turnovers inside the 20s are killers.

So the article basically says that if you score more points than your opponent then you win...did I miss something?

Throw. Catch. Block. Tackle. Cover.

What a simple game this football is.

You should read the article.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

I'm reposting this article here because it discusses Turnovers and their impact on the outcome of a game. In sum, turnovers can be huge. But on average, I think their impact is often over-stated when viewed in isolation of other factors such as explosiveness, 3rd-Down conversions, etc.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

As others have indicated, the timing of the turnover is the more critical question. Turnovers between the 20s are nice. Turnovers inside the 20s are killers.

So the article basically says that if you score more points than your opponent then you win...did I miss something?

Throw. Catch. Block. Tackle. Cover.

What a simple game this football is.

You should read the article.

I did. It said exactly what I posed. Score more than your opponent and you will win. The teams that are coached the best will usualy win the game. Yadda..******* yadda.

%%%%%%


Blah blah blah blah


WGAF

Scoreboard, pigeon.

 

[RiDLer80]

I'm reposting this article here because it discusses Turnovers and their impact on the outcome of a game. In sum, turnovers can be huge. But on average, I think their impact is often over-stated when viewed in isolation of other factors such as explosiveness, 3rd-Down conversions, etc.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

As others have indicated, the timing of the turnover is the more critical question. Turnovers between the 20s are nice. Turnovers inside the 20s are killers.

So the article basically says that if you score more points than your opponent then you win...did I miss something?

Throw. Catch. Block. Tackle. Cover.

What a simple game this football is.

You should read the article.

I did. It said exactly what I posed. Score more than your opponent and you will win. The teams that are coached the best will usualy win the game. Yadda..******* yadda.

%%%%%%


Blah blah blah blah


WGAF

Scoreboard, pigeon.

I can see why I negged you before.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

What was the great insight that the article brought to bear that every single football fan in the whole country hasn't already known?

 

[timujian]

Anyone up for a football conversation?
A lot of it is luck. When Phil Steele analyses college football teams, he assumes that teams will return to the norm. Teams at the top will get far fewer turnovers and teams at the bottom will get many more. Usually, it works out.

How do you view turnover margin as a relevant statistic/predictor? Generally speaking, are turnovers more "giveaway" (the offense making a mistake via bad decision or ball security), "takeaway" (defense making a heads-up play), or "dumb luck" (weird bounce, right-place-right-time, etc.)? If it's all of the above in combination, then how do you look at turnover margin in relation to other statistics?

A lot of it is luck. When Phil Steele analyses college football teams, he assumes that those at the top will get far fewer turnovers and those at the bottom will get far more. It usually works out for him.