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Transfer C Lynn Kidd signs with Miami

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Lance Roffers said:
Just because I'm a stats guy, I'll show a little more and see if it has any sway.

  • Lynn Kidd averaged .222 Win Shares per 40 minutes, where .100 is scaled to be average. Meaning he was more than twice the average player in adding wins to his team. He led Virginia Tech by a wide margin.
  • You might say, Win Shares are heavily influenced by efficiency, and the only thing this guy does is around the rim, so it's fuzzy math. His True Shooting Percentage was over .700, which is elite, so that efficiency certainly influenced the numbers.
  • What does he do besides simply dunk the basketball around the rim? Well, his Player Efficiency Rating was 27.6. Where 20.0 is considered great. 10.0 is considered average. Once again, he led Virginia Tech by a wide margin.
  • Yeah, but what about his defense? Kidd led Virginia Tech in his defensive rating (though his rating was not elite, Virginia Tech was not a good defensive club, so he led their team).
  • These data points don't do much for me, what else do you have? His Box Score Plus/Minus was 9.0, which easily led Virginia Tech and is an elite number. This is stating that per game he had a positive impact of 9 points per game for VT in the box score.
  • As a big, he had an assist percentage of 11.1%, meaning of the baskets scored while he was on the floor, he assisted of them. This is an elite number for a big.
  • His turnover percentage of 12.2% is also excellent for a big, especially one who can pass the ball.
  • As a big man, he shot 84.2% from the FT line, which is an elite number for a big man.
  • At 3.5 fouls per 40 minutes, he's not foul prone, which is great news for a big.

Yeah, but he's probably doing all of that against cupcakes.

  • .185 Win Shares per 40 Minutes in the ACC, which was excellent this year and happens to be the conference Miami plays in.
  • He was even better about sharing the ball and taking care of the ball in conference games.
Lynn Kidd was fairly easily Virginia Tech's best player this year, no matter what metric you want to choose. He even led them in Total Win Shares, which is based on minutes actually played and not ratios, at 4.3 Win Shares in 768 minutes.

Second was Hunter Cattoor at 4.0 Win Shares and he played 1,094 minutes on the season. In 42% more minutes than Kidd he still couldn't match him in Win Shares.

Norchad Omier led Miami in Win Shares at 4.7 in 948 minutes, so he was a better player than Kidd this year. That said, Kidd had better Win Shares per 40 minutes, better Box Score +/-, better Asst %/Turnover %, and better Player Efficiency numbers. This same statement holds true whether you're looking at conference only or overall seasons.

Lynn Kidd is an absolutely excellent addition to the Canes and makes them far better than they were and hurts Virginia Tech big time.
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Boom. You got all that jkhood. Hope that did not hurt too bad.
 
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TwentySix said:
Someone citing PER in 2024 and not only not being laughed at but being praised is incredible lol
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Not my favorite either, but is a metric among many that he fares well in.

PER is essentially designed to tell a story about how much you add/subtract other than simply shooting the ball.

All metrics have their downfall, and one can poke holes in most any of them if you choose.

I like to paint a narrative and when all of them agree, you’re probably on the right track.

But I do appreciate you taking the time to read it.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Cool.

How about the other dozen data points Lance provided?
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I’m done talking about this guy. I’m happy to have a discussion with anyone that will also take the time to watch their games, but box score watchers are always going to love bigs that do nothing but score at the rim, efficiency metrics are heavily flawed towards those guys. **** near everything Lance said applies directly to Izundu’s senior season. You have to match eye test to advanced stats.
 
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Lance Roffers said:
Not my favorite either, but is a metric among many that he fares well in.

PER is essentially designed to tell a story about how much you add/subtract other than simply shooting the ball.

All metrics have their downfall, and one can poke holes in most any of them if you choose.

I like to paint a narrative and when all of them agree, you’re probably on the right track.

But I do appreciate you taking the time to read it.
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Always like your posts here, but part of that is the blending of stats and film breakdown. I just think breaking basketball, especially bigs and/or guys that don’t play big minutes, down to advanced metrics is a flawed approach.
 
txcanes said:
He had some very good games against the best teams in the Acc. Before you open your yap with that comment, you should look at every game as I just did. Smdh, lazy
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The guy's point is he folded at the end of the season. His last 8 games including the NIT he is on his season average for rebounds and he is above his scoring average.
 
TwentySix said:
I’m done talking about this guy. I’m happy to have a discussion with anyone that will also take the time to watch their games, but box score watchers are always going to love bigs that do nothing but score at the rim, efficiency metrics are heavily flawed towards those guys. **** near everything Lance said applies directly to Izundu’s senior season. You have to match eye test to advanced stats.
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Izundu was really good his senior season lol you're not helping your case.

You're not the only one who watches games, btw. I didn't know about his advanced stats but as soon as he committed, I was very pleased because he's made a huge impact in many games that I've watched.

Anyways. Glad you're "done talking" since you seem to have nothing to contribute.
 
TwentySix said:
Always like your posts here, but part of that is the blending of stats and film breakdown. I just think breaking basketball, especially bigs and/or guys that don’t play big minutes, down to advanced metrics is a flawed approach.
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What approach would you take? The metrics, other than Box Score +/- are generally descriptive, as in telling us what happened, rather than predicting what will happen.

The data is the data. It generally tells who a player is.

As far as the film side of things goes, I don’t know enough to gauge, quite honestly. I played basketball, but am a 5-10 PG who doesn’t understand schematics at a high enough level to know if the big should be jumping the outside shoulder, icing, rolling, rim running, flashing, pushing the ball handler to his left etc. etc.

And to say otherwise would be disingenuous. I’ll have an opinion like anyone else, but it’s just not rooted in an understanding of film like I hope it is in football.

From a metrics standpoint, in the same darned conference, he was excellent. Does his limited minutes mask his effectiveness? It’s doubtful due to the sample size being fairly large. Additionally, I’ve found that bigs with near 1:1 assist/turnover percentages tend to play well above the ones who are dump into post types.

From a data perspective, he’s a very good fit to what we lacked.

All models are wrong, they’re just telling you the most likely outcome based on the features in them, but over a large enough sample, give me data over the eye test.
 
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Lynn Kidd, Welcome to Last 2 U.

Don't come as a Freshman nor Sophomore, come and play your last 2 at Da U.

Unofficial Slogan for Coach L and his staff where playing games matter and player development is an afterthought.
 
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Da_Lucky_One said:
Lynn Kidd, Welcome to Last 2 U.

Don't come as a Freshman nor Sophomore, come and play your last 2 at Da U.

Unofficial Slogan for Coach L and his staff where playing games matter and player development is an afterthought.
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You aren’t worth the time but go look at who is still playing in the tourney and tell me that the bulk of their rotations arent made up of transfers.

I won’t get an answer from you because you are a miserable ogre who doesn’t have a clue about what he’s talking about but I look forward to your lucid and informed response
 
Da_Lucky_One said:
Lynn Kidd, Welcome to Last 2 U.

Don't come as a Freshman nor Sophomore, come and play your last 2 at Da U.

Unofficial Slogan for Coach L and his staff where playing games matter and player development is an afterthought.
Click to expand...
Oh and Isaiah Wong says hello to your player development jab
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
Your comments on depth are not backed up by CBB's reality. Nobody goes deep into the bench. Even in a 30 point blowout, UConn only had 7 guys play double figure minutes. Bama had 7 guys play 10+. Etc.

Unless you completely missed Lance's post, yes, those 4 guys are excellent.
-Omier was 2nd team all ACC this season, despite getting no help and running out of gas.
-Kidd performed like an all ACC guy last season. If he can go from 23 mpg to 28, he's a star-level player
-You admitted yourself Pack is a good 3rd option
-Bethea is a top 5-10 player nationally. We can count on him to be a 4th option on a good team.
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You've got a bunch of cognitive dissonance going on in this post compared to others you've made in this thread. You say we don't need depth, but we just got done with a season where we had next to no depth and got nailed with injuries and look where that got us. Also, just a few posts down from this one you say:

ALLoverCANE said:
LOL.

I just don't understand how someone can watch CBB and say that depth is that important. Obviously it'd be great to have more depth, but the best teams win bc of their stars. Teams that play like FSU are rare (and don't usually win big either)
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So...depth is overrated but "obviously it'd be great to have more depth". Which is it? You're contradicting yourself within the span of 2 posts.

No one is saying AT ALL that we need to go 8-10 deep with a team of JAG's. I'm not asking Coach L to play 8-10 *for the sake* of playing 8-10. I'm asking him to recruit better thru the portal and HS ranks, develop his guys better, and build a rotation *with the goal* of getting to that 8-10 depth level with QUALITY. Yes, you're gonna have 3-4 real dudes on a team if you're good...but you can't just play all of those guys 35-40 mins a night and expect to hold up during a season w/o any quality behind them. The best teams *have quality* behind their front line stars, you dope.

You missed my point and went off on a massive tangent trying to pooh-pooh depth because of some inane claim of "that's not how CBB is today" kind of thing. That wasn't even the conversation.

Where I will vehemently disagree, regardless of Lance's numbers, is that the 4 guys you mentioned in bullet points are ones we can ride to prominence next year without any depth behind them. We can't just play 2-3 more bodies for break minutes and rely on major assumptions like:

- Bethea being an absolute dog from day one...might take him some time. He's super highly rated but he'll still be a Freshman and will have growing pains.
- Omier returning - we don't even know if he's coming back yet.
- Pack being consistently more of what we saw in the 22-23 season versus this past year.
- Kidd being a plug-and-play starter at the 5 and being as good as he was at VT (I hope he is, but we can't *count* on that).

We still have TONS of questions. All I'm asking Coach L to do is build on those "what ifs" and keep adding talent/depth to this roster. I'm not asking him to find 8-10 Clingnan/DJ Burns/RJ Davis/etc kind of guys. I'm just asking him to build towards having 8-10 capable bodies so we don't have a repeat of this past season with getting screwed over by injuries. If you can't agree with that assertion at the very least, regardless of "how CBB is today", then not sure we've got much more to discuss.
 
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