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Thoughts so far...

jmandel9 said:
We win 10 conference games I think we would get in. I can't remember the last time a 10 win ACC team didn't get in. Yes I know this is the first time we've gone to 20 ACC games but I would think us going 10-10 which puts us at 18-12 would be good enough to get in
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I agree, we should look to 18-12 (10-10 ACC) as our reasonable expectation that would allow us to make the Tournament. I'd love to see us win more, and if we dip below, we are pretty much out of the NCAA consideration.

10 ACC wins - Clemson, 1 vs. F$U, 2 vs. Pitt, 1 vs. NC State, 2 vs. Va Tech, Wake, GaTech, Syracuse

Definitely possible, maybe even mix in a shot against Notre Dame. I don't think we have a chance against Duke, UNC, Louisville, UVa.
 
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hotshot said:
A lot of your 10 ACC wins seem very optimistic.
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How so?

Essentially, we beat every team that is below us (based on pre-season predictions, since we don't have a big statistical sample on the current results yet), and we get a home win vs. F$U and NC State.

I gave us zero wins against Duke, UNC, Louisville, UVa, and Notre Dame, and one loss to F$U and NC State.

I only have us sweeping VaTech (9-3 and 1-1 conference) and Pitt (9-3 and 1-1 conference), neither of whom are looking unbeatable this year. Outside of those 2 road wins, we would only need to win 2 other one-off road games, against Clemson (6-6 and 0-2 conference) and GaTech (6-6 and 1-1 conference).

We always seem to play F$U well and pull out 1 win per season, even when they have a better record than us. And NC State is also 9-3 and 1-1 conference. Who else is looking unbeatable? ****, I forgot to include Boston College, which would put us at 11 wins, and then maybe we could drop the NC State game and still get to 10 wins.

The team with the best record (thus far) who I've given us a win against would be F$U.

How is that "very" optimistic?
 
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OK, so let's review.

Miami could get to 10-10 in the ACC by:

Home wins vs. Pitt, Florida State OR NC State (we play F$U in CG for the first game, so we may surprise them, we play NCS in the second game, so we may fight hard to avoid the seaon sweep), VaTech, Boston College, Wake, Syracuse
Home losses to Louisville (already happened), Duke, Florida State OR NC State, UVa
So, 6-4 at home

Road wins vs. Clemson, Pitt (would be the second game, so they would probably play hard to avoid the season sweep), VaTech (would be the second game, so they would probably play hard to avoid the season sweep), GaTech
Road losses to Louisville, NC State, Duke, UNC, Florida State, Notre Dame
So, 4-6 on the road

So if we take care of the teams we should beat, we only have to "upset" F$U or NC State at home (and sweep Pitt and VaTech) to go 10-10 in conference.

Seems very reasonable.

And if Miami goes 19-11 and 11-9 in conference, we definitely make the NCAA Tournament. If we go 18-12 and 10-10, we make the Tournament unless we crap the bed in the ACC Tourney. And at 17-13 and 9-11 conference, we would need to win 2 or more games in the ACC Tournament to have a shot.
 
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Pitt's a solid team, I definitely wouldn't take 2 wins against em for granted. Likewise, we all know the Syracuse zone will give us problems, even though we've had roughly 100 years to prepare for it.

We can and should beat UVA and/or UNC though, those teams are trading on brand name and nothing else. As for FSU, it just seems like a really bad matchup for us. Their size and length will smother us on the perimeter, and they'll abuse us in the paint. I don't think either of those games will be particularly close.

That said, the only thing I'm sure of is that nothing will go as expected.
 
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IncaneInTheBrain said:
Pitt's a solid team, I definitely wouldn't take 2 wins against em for granted. Likewise, we all know the Syracuse zone will give us problems, even though we've had roughly 100 years to prepare for it.

We can and should beat UVA and/or UNC though, those teams are trading on brand name and nothing else. As for FSU, it just seems like a really bad matchup for us. Their size and length will smother us on the perimeter, and they'll abuse us in the paint. I don't think either of those games will be particularly close.

That said, the only thing I'm sure of is that nothing will go as expected.
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I'm not "taking 2 wins for granted". I am pointing out a very possible pathway to 10 wins.

Obviously, not every game that I laid out will come out as planned. You can offset an unfortunate loss against a lesser Pitt team with a surprising win over a UVa or a UNC.

F$U is good, but we manage to take a win off of them nearly every year, regardless of "bad matchup".

I'm putting the games into four categories, the ones we "highly likely" win (due to quality of opponent, location of game, etc.), the ones we "most likely" lose (to the top 4 or 5 teams in the ACC), the ones that we have a good shot to win (rivalry game vs. F$U) or the ones that we will have to work hard to win (both Pitt games).

I'm sure we will have a letdown or two, and we will need to make up for it with a quality win over a superior opponent. But it is not crazy to think that we have a shot at 10-10 in the ACC. The sportswriters picked us to finish mid-pack or just above the midpoint, and I think that we have a shot with our guards and if the freshmen continue to develop. And if Kam and Stone continue to help us out.

I see the potential pitfalls, but I am optimistic that Coach L can get us to 10 ACC wins.
 
Guess I was more impressed by VT beating Michigan State in Hawaii than you were. Your 10 win scenario has us sweeping them. I definitely don't see us beating FSU, even though at home. I think 7 or 8 ACC wins is more our ceiling.
 
hotshot said:
Guess I was more impressed by VT beating Michigan State in Hawaii than you were. Your 10 win scenario has us sweeping them. I definitely don't see us beating FSU, even though at home. I think 7 or 8 ACC wins is more our ceiling.
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Okayyyy...

So they beat MSU in Hawaii, and then promptly lost to Dayton (by 27) and BYU (by 13) in Hawaii.

For common opponents, we both beat Coppin State and our next 2 games are against Clemson (VaTech won) and Duke (VaTech lost).

Again, VaTech is a team that we could/should sweep, though I am not guaranteeing that. I'm just pointing out that if we are going to take 2 from anyone, it needs to be VaTech and Pitt. I'm not expecting to take 2 from F$U or Duke.
 
hotshot said:
I definitely don't see us beating FSU, even though at home.
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Of course we have the 2nd game IN TALLY Feb 8. These rivalry games can be toss-ups even away due to the the enthusiastic effort. I was there last year and it was crazy, went to Overtime!

Gonna be there Feb 8 too, and only 4 rows off the court this time, so our chances have greatly improved, of course :)
Capturefeb8.webp
 
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I will ride the Sam playing better streak for hopefully the rest of the season. Any production out of him is definitely much welcomed.

I’d argue for now that Sam and Stone should see the floor over Miller. Was hoping more from Walker but I think he seems to be in the doghouse and, quite frankly, isn’t a better option than Sam or Stone at the moment.
 
casualcane said:
I will ride the Sam playing better streak for hopefully the rest of the season. Any production out of him is definitely much welcomed.

I’d argue for now that Sam and Stone should see the floor over Miller. Was hoping more from Walker but I think he seems to be in the doghouse and, quite frankly, isn’t a better option than Sam or Stone at the moment.
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Was thinking about that the other day. That starting lineup would look similar to the one we used in 2016, which was Quan, Bruce, Davon, Amp, and Kamari. That team at least made it to the tourny (and promptly got boat raced by Michigan State in the first round, but w/e).

Problem is, while the 16 team didn't have much height, they had plenty of bulk. This year's team is just a bunch of rail skinny guys, so I'm not sure it would work. Plus, Keith seems to still be on a minutes restriction, and it looked like he got hurt at the end of the Coppin State game too. Would love to know what his status is at the moment.
 
Consigliere said:
Before I begin, we’re likely going to disagree.

I think we should go small. Our strength is our guards and even though he doesn’t get enough burn (IMO), there is a reason Bev is our 4th leading scorer yet only 6th in minutes.

I would run a 4 guard lineup the majority of the game. We also should be running, a lot. We don’t and we force a “traditional” lineup.



A few things:

1. Rodney has improved. With that said, averaging 1.5 PPG and 1.5 RPG would be tremendous improvement.

2. Even with his improvement, Rodney isn’t good. He isn’t an ACC caliber starter. He is hardly an ACC caliber bench player. Rodney is still very slow and extremely weak. His offensive skills are okay, he isn’t a good rebounder and he is atrocious on defense. He may score 7 PPG but he allows/gives up more, much more. We will see how he does against ACC quality competition; my guess is his production will go down.

3. Rodney doesn’t HAVE to play more than 15 MPG. We choose to start him and play him ~25 MPG. We could go small and run 4 guards. It isn’t like Rodney offers some great rebounding advantage by keeping him in. With Sam playing better and being a more consistent option, Rodney becomes needed less. This also assumes that Stone offers very little going forward.

4. I again admit that Rodney has improved but I think people had low/no expectations from him and they’re greatly overstating his production and are more shocked because of where he came from. With that said, I think our best lineups don’t include him and his minutes should decrease a lot.
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All fair points. He only played 12 minutes yesterday and it obviously worked out so maybe you’re right. I just don’t see how we get through 20 games of ACC play with no true big man. I would understand four guards and a true big man like Jekiri but 4 guards and a power forward like Sam or Keith is going to be tough. And I don’t see how they don’t stay out of foul trouble. Coach L will need to manage Rodney based off who were playing and I just think in order to get through the ACC with a .500 or better record we’re gonna need Rodney to have a few solid games.
 
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edge3241 said:
All fair points. He only played 12 minutes yesterday and it obviously worked out so maybe you’re right. I just don’t see how we get through 20 games of ACC play with no true big man. I would understand four guards and a true big man like Jekiri but 4 guards and a power forward like Sam or Keith is going to be tough. And I don’t see how they don’t stay out of foul trouble. Coach L will need to manage Rodney based off who were playing and I just think in order to get through the ACC with a .500 or better record we’re gonna need Rodney to have a few solid games.
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Honestly, these are just opinions.

As for the part in bold:

1. I agree that we NEED a true big man. The problem is our best one is sitting out and we choose not to apply for a waiver.

2. Rather then FORCE a big man, simply to play a big man, I'd rather flex a player and move some others around. I've clearly made my thoughts known about Rodney. Keep in mind, we've hardly entered ACC play. The competition will get better, his production will go down (IMO).

3. The reason I want to go small and play 4 guards is because that is where our talent lies. Clearly our three starting guards should start (Kam, Lykes and DJ). They need to EACH play 30+/per game. That is where the majority of the scoring will come from. Besides those three, your next best player has been Sam. Sam has clearly stepped up his production over the last 7 games. Specifically, his last 5 games (after that tourney) have been much better as he is averaging: 33 Minutes, 11 Points, 8 Rebounds and 1.6 BPG. I don't expect Sam to maintain that production but he clearly has been more consistent/reliable. So if you have:

1: Lykes
2: DJ
3: Kam
4: _____________
5: Sam

as your best players (most consistent and reliable), you need to figure out someway to produce at that other spot. Granted Stone is coming back from a serious surgery and maybe he needs some more time to get acclimated; he hasn't been very reliable. If he can play and produce like he did last night, let him start and play. I will gladly take 6 Points and 9 Rebounds in 27 Minutes.

I may be alone on this but Bev needs to play 20 MPG. Bev has not been reliable but he is a freshman and his minutes have been inconsistent. Bev's 5 TOs were bad, extremely bad, but we're going to need to play him. In addition to those 5 TOs, he had 3 Steals, 3 Points, 3 Rebounds and 1 Assist in 16 Minutes. Not a good game by any means, decent if he had less TOs.

At some point your 3 starting guards must sit. At some point someone else will have to be in the rotation even if the 3 Guards + Sam are playing. Bev is still the 4th leading scorer and only 6th in minutes (he averages .4 more minutes than Stone). The kid needs to play and his minutes need to be consistent. Do we expect Lykes, DJ and Kam to play 35 MPG each game during ACC play?

Also, Walker is clearly in the dog house. My guess is he will remain there.

4. If I was distributing the minutes, I would do it as follows (these are approximates):

Lykes (30-35)
DJ (30-35)
Kam (30-35)
Sam (30-35)
Stone (20-25)
Bev (20)
Miller (5-15)
Wong (5-10)
 
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jmandel9 said:
We also need at least one of the freshman guards to step up it is not sustainable for Chris, DY and Kam to all play 36 minutes a night throughout ACC play
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Exactly. Do people think we're going to go with a lineup that has Sam, Rodney and Stone on the floor at the same time?
 
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If Stone could average 8 or 9 a game, with his defense that would be an upgrade over Miller
 
jmandel9 said:
We also need at least one of the freshman guards to step up it is not sustainable for Chris, DY and Kam to all play 36 minutes a night throughout ACC play
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This. Wong looks indecisive and Beverly shows flashes of both athleticism and the cringeworthy.

Can’t rely on 3 guards averaging this much time per game
 
I agree we need to play Beverly more. He’s too talented not to play with our roster and hopefully the more he plays the more in control he’ll be. And I like Stone and definitely want him playing more than Rodney but he seems like a guy who will be more effective off the bench but getting a good amount of minutes.
 
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