This Team's a Big Disappointment

[TheOriginalCane]

Hams health is becoming an issue. He just had hip replacement surgery a few months back and it didn't go the greatest. I could see no more than another year. Far as OTE we've heard some plusses and minuses. They're offering him a decent nil. But he's got a few friends that have already played there and two playing this year. Apparently they've got some financial issues. Complaints about kids either not getting paid or seriously late in other instances. Some College coaches have also voiced displeasure with them & it concerns tee a lil that it may affect his options for college. Last issue is its in Atlanta. He just turned 17 & none of us are located anywhere near there. I'm the closest in Miami but I also spend alot of time in other cities up north or out west. Ehh. Good talk brother. Thanks for your opinions. Always good to chop it up for a few & get another take on things.

If he comes to ATL, then me and @AtlAtty can look out for him!

 

[AmherstCane]

My bad dawg. I thought I read one of your previous post where you mentioned him as being undersized. Not sure what I was looking at but good to hear that your nephew has grown to 7 feet. When I saw him over the summer thought he was around 6'9', maybe 6'10". Regardless, 7'0" 270 lbs moving the way he's moving is impressive for anyone at that combination of size & weight. Just got to keep living in the lab and getting better, because bigs at that size are dinosaurs in the NBA with the rare exception of guys who can hurt you inside and out like Embid, Jokic, even Brooke Lopez from the Bucks among a select few. Don't want your nephew to end up like Oscar Tshiebwe, Drew Timee or Adam Sanogo. All big guys who killed it in college but went undrafted and are struggling to stick in the NBA.

By the way, there's a kid down here in Miami who's also about the same size as your nephew. Marcis Ponder (6'11" 275lbs). He's 15 years old, 10th grader formerly from Miami Norland but now playing at Overtime Elite. His measurables are off the charts. Overtime measured him at 6'11", 7'6" wing span, 10.5 inch hands, size 21 shoe. Don't know what they're feeding these kids today but ****! Not sure if Miami is recruiting him but do know fsu, among others have already offered him. Coach Ham told a friend of mine that Marcis is the biggest American 15 year old he's ever seen. And that says a lot considering how long and how many bigs Ham has been around.

Not that you asked, but my advice with your nephew's recruiting is make sure he goes to play for a head coach that LOVES his game. Has a track record of developing guys for the league, preferably bigs. At a school that NEEDS him, not just wants him. If I've learned anything about college basketball it's that more times than not head coaches will play a huge role in determining if one of their players gets a chance at the league or not. Best of luck to your nephew!

Great post that illustrates exactly the predicament L faces.

He’s never had a bag game (and he’s a character guy so I’m not sure a bag game would have even worked for him because his sell is system fit and development) so he’s never really had a chance to even enter the market.

Hopefully NIL allows Coach L to break the cycle and sign a NBA prospect big so then he can show success… but he has no NBA track record with true bigs because he’s never been at a program that had the history or support to allow him to compete for that level of high school recruit.

And other than DH (who is on staff and loves Larranaga, and who is not even a true center), Miami has never signed a legit NBA prospect center.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

This is what is complete bull****.

Two 2023 Final Four teams - UM and FAU.

Miami is 14-6 and not in the bracket right now.

FAU is 17-4 and a #6 seed in that bracket.

2.5 games of overall difference (3 games of conference-record difference). Miami in a much tougher conference.

Ridiculous.

And I know, I know, the stats nerds are gonna come here to give some long-winded rationalization.

The "long-winded rationalization" is that these are college sports and overall records are largely irrelevant. Wins vs NJIT, LIU, etc. don't matter.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

If it wasn’t for 2 buzzer games we would be 7-2 and in second place, right where we were last year. Casey and Watson look like they have regressed, hence our lack of depth off the bench.

We also won a really tight game at VT, who was missing their starting 2 guard, after George banked in a late 3. And the Pitt game came down to the last possession.

We haven't been unusually good/lucky nor unusually bad/unlucky in close games.

 

[AmherstCane]

We also won a really tight game at VT, who was missing their starting 2 guard, after George banked in a late 3. And the Pitt game came down to the last possession.

We haven't been unusually good/lucky nor unusually bad/unlucky in close games.

I actually agree that the stat nerds are reasonably ranking us this year. My complaint is efficiency metrics fail to capture a ”clutch” team (like last year’s squad) that plays a lot of close games but finds a way to win. We are not that team this year.

 

[Da_Lucky_One]

Wooga is projected as a 2nd round pick.
George, Pack nor Omier are not projected to get picked in this two round mock.
Interesting to me is that Colorado is projected to have three 1st round picks. I didn't think they were that good when they beat Miami by 27 in December. This kinda explains it.
Also, Kentucky is projected to have two first round picks and 5 second round picks.
This is where the "Mock Draft" becomes questionable.
Take this for what it is worth.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

I actually agree that the stat nerds are reasonably ranking us this year. My complaint is efficiency metrics fail to capture a ”clutch” team (like last year’s squad) that plays a lot of close games but finds a way to win. We are not that team this year.

The fact "clutchness" is so fickle year-to-year suggests it's more fluke than skill.

 

[AmherstCane]

The fact "clutchness" is so fickle year-to-year suggests it's more fluke than skill.

But it’s not year to year. It missed on Miami two years a row because of the style we played and the players we had. Anyone who watched us knew we were better than our efficiency metric rankings the last two years (because our strength was exactly where the rankings are deficient). Also a short bench is gonna get punished because it’s hard to sustain blowouts with a short bench so your efficiency numbers go down. But rotations tend to shorten in March which actually favors the teams that played with a short bench over the year (if healthy) because reps build cohesiveness and experience.

I just think this years team (other than the short bench) plays in a way that the computers more accurately assess us… because we don’t have the same level of clutch guard play and iso ability that we had the last two years.

 

[JZCane0825]

Bump

 

[ALLoverCANE]

But it’s not year to year. It missed on Miami two years a row because of the style we played and the players we had. Anyone who watched us knew we were better than our efficiency metric rankings the last two years (because our strength was exactly where the rankings are deficient). Also a short bench is gonna get punished because it’s hard to sustain blowouts with a short bench so your efficiency numbers go down. But rotations tend to shorten in March which actually favors the teams that played with a short bench over the year (if healthy) because reps build cohesiveness and experience.

I just think this years team (other than the short bench) plays in a way that the computers more accurately assess us… because we don’t have the same level of clutch guard play and iso ability that we had the last two years.

Probably. Maybe.

The metrics are flawed, but significantly less flawed than humans.

 

[gordonsolie]

The truth is the only NBA prospect “big” that we’ve ever signed is DH (not even a “true” big) and his career was F’d by the ncaa.

L and his staff have turned several “projects” into ACC caliber bigs who are having nice careers overseas.

But all the elite prospects care about is NBA track record (and maybe program “resources”) and it’s **** near impossible to “develop” a project big into a NBA player (because if a big has the athleticism to be a NBA player they’re an elite blue chip recruit).

So until last year (pre-NIL), we had no bag game, minimal support for the program, and no history putting bigs in the league (because, again, almost every drafted big comes out of high school a top-20 recruit). Hence we couldn’t land an elite big so then we didn’t have a track record of putting bigs in the league… and around again.

Last year we didn’t have a starting spot for a big with Omier, even if we had the excess NIL sitting around to overpay for one… which we also didn’t.

Yes Coach L doesn’t value size without skill (and he’s adapted to winning without elite size out of necessity).

He has also recruited elite bigs because Coach L WANTS size (without success… maybe until Nwoko who is/was a fringe elite player).

Hopefully recent success and NIL will help Coach L land nba prospect bigs… but I know Canes fans who torpedo such recruiting efforts (such as in this thread) aren't helping the problem.

If there’s any question whether L knows how to coach a team with size, 2013 should provide a satisfactory answer (even though none of those bigs were close to NBA level).

Also - and lastly - Zach Edey and Purdue would like everyone to know that guard play matters in March.

Tito Horford was an NBA prospect center back when Miami signed him.

 

[AmherstCane]

Tito Horford was an NBA prospect center back when Miami signed him.

True. Last chance U. Hopefully L can find a way to sign another one.

 

[Gables Canes]

Unless we go on a huge run, the NIT is looking more and more likely. This would go down as the most disappointing season in L’s tenure, and it’s not really close.

 

[hotshot]

Tito Horford was an NBA prospect center back when Miami signed him.

Centers were highly valued in the NBA back in Tito's day. That was a very different world from now.

 

[JZCane0825]

Unless we go on a huge run, the NIT is looking more and more likely. This would go down as the most disappointing season in L’s tenure, and it’s not really close.

Hard hitting analysis from you as always

 

[King of Allapattah]

Centers were highly valued in the NBA back in Tito's day. That was a very different world from now.

Odd thing is Tito was supposed to go to Houston, but if I remember correctly his test scores were flagged. Ended up at LSU before transferring to Miami. I was barely a teenager back then so I don't recall the exacts but do remember him sitting out some games before playing. I think he was one of the top prospects coming out of high school and a McDonald's All-American if I'm not mistaken. I remember the game vs. David Robinson. A lot of hype going into that one. Wonder what happened to Tito's NBA career. Very underwhelming to say the least.

 

[hotshot]

Odd thing is Tito was supposed to go to Houston, but if I remember correctly his test scores were flagged. Ended up at LSU before transferring to Miami. I was barely a teenager back then so I don't recall the exacts but do remember him sitting out some games before playing. I think he was one of the top prospects coming out of high school and a McDonald's All-American if I'm not mistaken. I remember the game vs. David Robinson. A lot of hype going into that one. Wonder what happened to Tito's NBA career. Very underwhelming to say the least.

The Strange, Tangled Journey of Tito Horford, Basketball Star (LONG)​

The Strange, Tangled Journey of Tito Horford, Basketball Star

On the front porch of her four-room brick house in La Romana, a sugar-mill town on the south coast of the Dominican Republic, Ana Graciela Baltazar sat in her favorite wooden rocking chair, pondering the confused life of the most celebrated of her seven children: 7-foot-1, 250-pound Alfredo William…

www.latimes.com

 

[King of Allapattah]

The Strange, Tangled Journey of Tito Horford, Basketball Star (LONG)​

The Strange, Tangled Journey of Tito Horford, Basketball Star

On the front porch of her four-room brick house in La Romana, a sugar-mill town on the south coast of the Dominican Republic, Ana Graciela Baltazar sat in her favorite wooden rocking chair, pondering the confused life of the most celebrated of her seven children: 7-foot-1, 250-pound Alfredo William…

www.latimes.com

Thanks for sharing. Good read. Eduardo Gomez (who was supposedly recruiting Tito to LSU) was living in Miami in the 80's. Coached girl's high school basketball back then. I think he ended up going back to DR during the late 90's and taking a posh job with their government.

 

[hotshot]

Thanks for sharing. Good read. Eduardo Gomez (who was supposedly recruiting Tito to LSU) was living in Miami in the 80's. Coached girl's high school basketball back then. I think he ended up going back to DR during the late 90's and taking a posh job with their government.

Who do you believe -- Gomez, or Horford/Dale Brown? IIRC, Dale was well-liked but had a shady rep.

 

[King of Allapattah]

Who do you believe -- Gomez, or Horford/Dale Brown? IIRC, Dale was well-liked but had a shady rep.

Gomez probably made some promises on LSU's behalf and for whatever reason LSU didn't come through. Maybe they thought Tito wasn't worth it. Who knows. But don't know Gomez to be a liar or bad dude. Well respected among his peers and countrymen. Never heard a bad thing said about him.