Sure, it's different locally and nationally -- but that just highlights the benefit of local. Local kids already know the school, area, many of the kids, often coaches and former players. We almost certainly know their teammates, coaches, maybe relatives. These things help with assessment and familiarity.
I think we agree that local coaches typically have a comparative advantage over non-local coaches in recruiting local kids because of proximity, access, relationships, and other factors that essentially equate to an information advantage to the local coach (though we may disagree over how great of an advantage this actually is at any point in time). If there are fewer new data points (i.e., no spring games, no camps, no 7 v. 7, no visits) because of shelter-in-place measures, then the information asymmetry between the local and non-local coach is (compared to normal recruiting circumstances) diminished. So for the time being, the comparative advantage a local coach typically possess may well be blunted to some degree.
That's not to say certain kids won't have their own reasons for staying home in this (or any) climate, or their own preferences that will affect their individual recruitment. But when it comes to making evaluations and getting face-time with recruits, local coaches have a somewhat diminished edge over non-local coaches in light of the current restrictions.
Maybe. They may seem easier to recruit at the moment, but the important question is whether that's a misleading signal, or will last. Because recruiting rules will go back to normal. We could spend time on kids who are 'interested' now because it's different and no one can really get on them. But will they end up being kids who want to leave town? My guess is when COVID passes, it's going to more likely that kids stay local than the alternative. The important question isn't what kids are interested in 'right now,' but rather whether we have a sense of what they'll be interested in when it's time to decide.
Whether it's June, July, August, or later, recruiting rules will certainly start to normalize at some point. But timing is critical, and the individuality of these recruits and their timetables for making decisions matters. And you absolutely can't not not recruit an interested kid today because of a general belief their interest may change once restrictions are eased. Consider, for instance, that many HS seniors want to be committed before they even begin their senior year of HS to avoid the distraction. For kids with that goal in mind, the spring and early summer months can be critical to the ultimate signing decision.
As far as spending time on kids who may just stay closer to home in the end, that is always a risk in recruiting (and vice-versa... spending time on kids who ultimately value getting far away from home). And any coach worth a **** wants commits who will be committed on signing day (not just 6 months earlier). COVID-19 or not, part of a coach's job is to get an honest feel for how big a factor distance will be in the recruitment, and whether any given recruit is likely to stick to his verbal commitment. When the world starts to normalize, some kids may find themselves thinking differently then versus now. These are, after all, teenagers. And anyone who has spent any amount of time with 16-18 year olds knows the things they consider important can change from one day to the next. COVID-19 may effect that, but the often fickle nature of teenagers should always be considered by coaches during any given recruitment.
At the end of the day, these are all individualized recruitments, and coaches need to honestly gauge their likelihood of success in any given recruitment. COVID-19 or not, that is always the case. The greatest difference between this recruiting cycle and past cycles is, for the time being, there is currently a window where the comparative advantage possessed by local coaches over OOS coaches is smaller than usual (and perhaps ever). It could disappear in the next few months, but it's there now. It seems wise to capitalize on it.
