forums

The pointspread didn’t move

Poptimus said:
No, I really did expect the line to go to -7.5 if Jarren was named starter. It certainly wasn't going to move in our favor. Vegas/offshore/sharps have the same intel as everyone about Jarren. The scant few videos of Jarren that Manny allowed to come out of practices ran with a secrecy that would make Kim Jong-un proud would not inspire anyone to suddenly hammer Miami. If anything, it'd be a bias against a true freshman starting his first game on the road, at night, on ESPN college Gameday, that would move that number IMO.
Click to expand...
Well what I was afraid of happening, happened. I fully expect it now to go to -8 before we see some buyback so if you want to bet Miami just sit tight.
 
Advertisement
Canestomp said:
They're still trying to digest Jarren Williams. Major sports news outlets pretty much had a 100% guarantee that Tate was starting. CBS would write articles analyzing the upcoming match up between the Canes and Gators and always assumed Tate would go head to head with Feleipe Franks. It was actually nauseating to read. Many of them are eating crow right now and scrambling to see how the Williams puzzle piece fits in their predictions.
Click to expand...
Which shows that they don't know **** about our program in general. They will be surprised as the season goes on. I believe we will be much better than the world thinks. Don't forget, much of the this from the major media, the same people who give you fake news ( and believe me, a lot of it is fake in the sense the journalists selectively report or distort to present their own point-of-view.) The media, so arrogant and full of certitude in their superior opinion, will likely be very surprised as we roll along....I believe we are a sleeping giant. When we wake up and explode, I don't know, but I think we will.
 
caneinorlando said:
Who gives af??....I hope their favored by 35 come gametime...
Click to expand...
The direction of the line move up until the close is way more often right than wrong in predicting what will happen. Just some of the games over the past few years that the direction of the line movement was right on of ours was:

LSU (line moved towards LSU and we all know what happened)
FSU (2017 and 2018)
Wisconsin (2017 and 2018)
Clemson (2017)
VT (2017 and 2018)
BC (2018)
Virginia (2018)
Pitt (2017)

The notable exception I can think of is Notre Dame in 2017. It didn't really move in our favor and we crushed them. But most of the time the line move is right.
 
Poptimus said:
The direction of the line move up until the close is way more often right than wrong in predicting what will happen. Just some of the games over the past few years that the direction of the line movement was right on of ours was:

LSU (line moved towards LSU and we all know what happened)
FSU (2017 and 2018)
Wisconsin (2017 and 2018)
Clemson (2017)
VT (2017 and 2018)
BC (2018)
Virginia (2018)
Pitt (2017)

The notable exception I can think of is Notre Dame in 2017. It didn't really move in our favor and we crushed them. But most of the time the line move is right.
Click to expand...

This last claim needs some concrete stats. Otherwise, you should be a millionaire by now.
 
Advertisement
From the perspective of the betting public, and even some of the professionals, the headline name was Tate Martell. If anything, I'd have expected Jarren's name to move the spread +0.5 to 1. What I think being unchanged tells us is that no portion of the betting world thinks the QB matters, so in essence none of the QBs are a factor, because Tate was holding the line down either.
 
ajkreider said:
This last claim needs some concrete stats. Otherwise, you should be a millionaire by now.
Click to expand...
You can Google this, it's a known fact. It's not easy to implement in real life. Have you ever tried to wager over a grand on a first half college basketball total between two Sun Belt teams? Good luck. You'll get limited. And that's where the line moves are sharpest, in the less efficient markets where the lines don't have a full week (or, in the case of our game against UF, a couple months to marinate). It's also not easy for a variety of reasons such as the late money coming in just a couple minutes before kickoff/tipoff. You start placing bets online after big late moves and you'll get banned for chasing steam. Don't take my word for it, start watching the screen, SBRforum has a free line service and so does vegasinsider.com. Back when I was heavy into this I was using SMTO which was on par with Don Best. The software was programmed to audibly announce when there was a major line move and it lit up like a Christmas tree without having to refresh the page. There's a reason you get banned for chasing steam.

Now I just talk about it from a perspective of what to expect.
 
I’m probably the first person to say this but I think this game goes over. Two good defenses often create turnovers & short fields couple that with the fact I think both teams will be going balls to the wall for 4 quarters on O. I see a 30-27 win for Miami. Bubba with a game winner.
 
Advertisement
mr.h said:
Normally Vegas gets it right, but no one knows or seen what’s coming...we’re going to blindside em.
Click to expand...
Media is writing Miami off and I dont Give af. They don’t out talent Miami anywhere and this is miami vs uf
 
Advertisement
There are so many unknown variables at play here that the oddsmakers are most likely not accounting for because they can't.
 
Advertisement
In 2008 when the MBS market started to fail, Moody’s and the rating agency’s didnt budge an inch until the wholeeee house came down. I see a similar thing happening here. I don’t see the line budging much. Maybe some sharps drop some big plays one way or the other but nothing more than 1/2 a point or so. What will be telling is watching the 2nd half line move throughout the first quarter as Miami goes from +3-4 allllll the way to -6-7 😎
 
Advertisement
Back
Top