Pass defense is a common denominator. The national champion invariably is near the top, in the Top 10 in yards per pass attempt allowed. I think Auburn 2010 is the only recent exception.
This year I believe Notre Dame is low in the Top 10 and Alabama is 15th in that category. It's certainly a weak Alabama defense compared to last year, with the extraordinary 4.6 yards per attempt allowed in the regular season, and lowering that number in the bowl game. That 4.6 bested USC's 4.7 in 2008 as the best number in recent history. It's still unnerving to me that USC was bypassed in favor of Florida in 2008. The voters simply aren't aware of statistical categories like that. They happily use subjective judgment and little else. USC could have been 2.2 and it wouldn't have factored in their evaluation, not with the always handy,"Pac 10 sucks..."
The defensive line absolutely plays a massive role in pass defense. Interior defenders, in particular, disrupt and shorten the play. That's why I knew Auburn's bad number in 2010 wasn't necessarily a disqualifier. Farley and Co. could get motivated and show up in a game like that. Notice that the spread on that game jumped wildly on the final day. Auburn went from -3 to +1 against Oregon. Many big bettors were aware that Auburn had deficiencies in some of the statistical areas that normally align with a champion. Heck, they weren't too far off. It was hardly a dominant performance from that SEC team.
BTW, Miami 2002 had awful turnover numbers compared to 2001. I used to be able to quote it off the top of my head. That's absent now. I think it was roughly half as many takeaways as 2001. We lacked the senior ballhawks.
Besides, Ohio State was a nightmare opponent, the team I feared all season. I remember desperately rooting for Cincinnati to complete a cheap pass into the end zone to knock out Ohio State. That was early season but I'd already identified them as our biggest concern. Miami would have waltzed against uptempo teams like Georgia or upstart USC.
I'm still in amusement that the 2002 Buckeyes are belittled a decade later. That team was the blue collar type that minimizes all our strengths and abuses our weaknesses, no different than Penn State or Alabama. For one thing, we don't take that type of foe seriously enough. Ohio State figured to mangle our interior offensive line but I don't think we had any clue it would play out that way. Pinball games against Syracuse and Virginia Tech to conclude the season was the worst possible way to enter that game. Ohio State warmed up with a game very representative battle against Michigan, the same patience they'd need versus Miami.
Ohio State had a fantastic YPPA Differential. Again, I'm not in peak form in terms of memory these days, after my dad's death, but I think it was in the +3.4 area. Miami was higher than that. Two excellent teams. You can never count out an underdog with a YPPA Differential like Ohio State's. Some of the fraud Oklahoma teams have entered the title games with YPPA Differential less than half as good as Ohio State 2002.
We would have been life and death against that team if we payed a series of games. The pointspread would shorten accordingly. I told Jay Kornegay, then sportsbook manager at the Imperial Palace, that he was out of his mind when he opened Miami -15.5 in that game. He threw up that number during Miami's first half onslaught of Virginia Tech. The number settled at -11.5 on game day.
