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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

mr.h said:
His formula for calculating the Tariffs are wrong. If the US buys more from a country than it sells to, Trump calls that a tariff..but it’s capitalism…
Imo, He's bluffing, but I hope he does not cause a recession. His economists must know the math is wrong. He’s hurting our reputation and relationships with good allies.
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There are a lot more factors than just import and export dollar amounts. Foreign government subsidies and currency manipulation come into play as well.

I'm not happy with the process, but I doubt he will do anything that doesn't have us better on the other side. He does understand economics.
 

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genxcane said:
You realize that these are entirely contradictory things, right?

Why would a company invest loads of money in onshoring production if the tariff could disappear tomorrow at the whim of a negotiating position?
Protectionism only works in a stable environment where the expected conditions will last long enough to create domestic production and get a return on investment. Otherwise, a company could find themselves having invested a fortune and still competing with cheaper overseas markets.

This is why the protectionist angle is not really viable here because he has already backed out of tariffs several times in the last few months. There is no stability in the policy to give businesses the confidence that the conditions will survive the week (not to mention the year+ it would actually take to seriously gear up production).
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Spot on.

Since they went with 10% flat tariff and additional adval tarrifs for countries we have high trade deficits with, while suggesting in the proclamation (and Trump publicly saying so today) that the latter tariffs can be negotiated away, they haven't provided clarity on the question of what their end goal is: protection/reshoring of production, revenue generation, or helping American firms to easier sell their goods and services overseas (regardless of where they are made). Protection and creation of tariff revenue can work together; protection and reciprocity (we'll have 0 tariff and non tariff barriers if you do too) are antagonistic to one another.

Trump's tariff policy in his first term, I'd argue was all about reciprocity, using the levers of state power to help American companies sell more goods and services overseas. Occasional lip service was paid to protection/reshoring.

Remains to be seen whether this time will be different. If they're serious about protection/reshoring, then the additional adval tariffs won't go away and any efforts by say Apple to move production from a high trade deficit country to a low one will be futile as the new country will then have high deficit and will be added to the list. Nothing from his first term nor the trade jawboning this term prior to yesterday suggests this outcome is a real possibility.

WRT to markets, if the additional adval tariffs are for show and either don't go into effect on the 9th or are negotiated away soon after, I don't see any reason not to expect a v-shaped recovery to new highs like after the mini-tech bear market at the end of '18 in his first term.

If the leopard has changed his spots and they're serious about protection/reshoring, we will see markets reprice to the downside massively - far more so than we saw in COVID crash or the '22 bear market, IMO.
 
Just some basic ideas simplified:

- Increased National Security. EU is kinda going off the handle with their politics. Becoming more and more misaligned with us. Extreme anti-free speech, and just some overall dumb *** decision making going on. Their biggest threat is Russia, yet they spend more buying Russian Oil (and literally protecting the Russian economy in the process) than they do on Ukraine. Russia has fully shifted to a wartime economy and is just as well off now as like a month into the war. Meanwhile the Middle East is a complete **** show with Israel and Iran. China is our biggest threat and we believe they will likely go to war with Taiwan sooner than later, meanwhile we are entirely reliant on them for our Chips. Also China has completely taken over manufacturing and invests FAR more and more strategically with a long-term focus than us. Unfortunately these tariffs are far too late to have saved American industry from Chinese outsourcing. However they also seem to be too soon before we can really capitalize on AI and Robots to significantly give us manufacturing advantages... But perhaps not... I'd just say the main thing that I am not the biggest fan of with the tariffs is honestly that we should be trying to have much better relations with Canada, Mexico, and begin building up Latin America far more. But also Idc what people say there were definitely some trade imbalances previously. What the MAGA side is completely missing is that the US exports SERVICES rather than goods, and services are FAR MORE profitable. So any country that increases tariffs on our services is doing far more damage to us in retaliation basically when viewed as a net revenue lens. One thing is absolutely clear we need to significantly invest in domestic Mineral Refining, Energy Prodcution, Chip Manufacturing, Battery Cell manufacturing, etc. Like ASAP. Those are all absolute critical National Security interests for us.

- Increased Domestic production. Unfortunately given the tariffs don't have like a ramp up (which makes no sense), it's basically impossible for domestic production to actually respond quick enough. But ultimately there is no way tariffs like these don't promote more domestic manufacturing. The problem is some **** just shouldn't at all matter - like manufacturing shirts. Who gives a **** about that. But like Chips and Battery Cells? Yeah that should have tariffs...

- Go with Tariffs (basically a consumption tax) and Reduce/Remove Federal Income tax. US is a Consumer market. Doing this incentivizes more income generation because people aren't taxed on it as much now. This means more/harder working employees who see a tangible difference in big lump sums every pay period while the consumption tax is a small difference in each transaction that doesn't "Feel" as big. And using our Consumption Market as the revenue driver makes sense, especially as a means to shift priorities on who/what we import. Ideally Trump ONLY cuts taxes for people <$300K or something. No Millionaires should be getting tax breaks if he wants to push for tariffs which as a consumption tax affect poor people FAR MORE.

- It is just a fact that we need to refinance what like $7T soon? Bessent wants the 10y get increased demand to save money. Look at the trend since tariffs have been getting put in place. This is kinda the desired outcome.Long term treasuries are critical. How often does like Bessent have to say that they will be looking at main street as their indicator, and not the stock market and the Mag7 in particular?

- This all works in tandem with DOGE cuts. DOGE must cut $1T. Bessent must Raise $1T. Then from there whether we get income tax cuts and replace them with tariffs imo is not that big of a deal, and potentially long term in our interest tbh. The way they are going about implementing the tariffs just seems ******* retarded. The Gold Card for $5M is interesting. Wouldn't be surprised for it to raise like $250-500B within a couple years (selling 50k-100k of them)
 
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JD08 said:
There are a lot more factors than just import and export dollar amounts. Foreign government subsidies and currency manipulation come into play as well.

I'm not happy with the process, but I doubt he will do anything that doesn't have us better on the other side. He does understand economics.
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He has no idea what the "other side" will look like. Hope he correct in this big gamble.
 
hotshot said:
He has no idea what the "other side" will look like. Hope he correct in this big gamble.
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Let me rephrase:
I doubt he will do anything that he believes doesn't have us better on the other side.

Do you honestly think he's just throwing **** at the wall to see what sticks? I might not agree with his economic school of thought, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have one.
 
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JD08 said:
Let me rephrase:
I doubt he will do anything that he believes doesn't have us better on the other side.

Do you honestly think he's just throwing **** at the wall to see what sticks? I might not agree with his economic school of thought, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have one.
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IDK about the throwing stuff at the wall.

Yesterday, though, we had one Trump official saying these tariffs are here to stay for the foreseeable future (and NOT just a negotiating ploy), then an hour later Trump implies they are a negotiating position. How is private industry supposed to commit billions to building new plants and infrastructure to "build American" with that kind if schizoid guidance?

You say you might not agree with Trump's "economic school of thought." As I'm beyond weak in my economic knowledge, can you expand on that for my benefit?
 
hotshot said:
IDK about the throwing stuff at the wall.

Yesterday, though, we had one Trump official saying these tariffs are here to stay for the foreseeable future (and NOT just a negotiating ploy), then an hour later Trump implies they are a negotiating position. How is private industry supposed to commit billions to building new plants and infrastructure to "build American" with that kind if schizoid guidance?

You say you might not agree with Trump's "economic school of thought." As I'm beyond weak in my economic knowledge, can you expand on that for my benefit?
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I don't know his economic school of thought. But in the Economy thread, @ithacane posted an X thread that kind of makes sense. Whether it will work or not, who knows. It's definitely a gamble, but the status quo leads to certain hardship, so they might feel the odds are worth it.
 
JD08 said:
I don't know his economic school of thought. But in the Economy thread, @ithacane posted an X thread that kind of makes sense. Whether it will work or not, who knows. It's definitely a gamble, but the status quo leads to certain hardship, so they might feel the odds are worth it.
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Trump has the most cavalier attitude toward Wall Street that I've ever seen from a Republican.
That, I guess, is either a good or bad thing -- depending on what type (MAGA or Old School/RINO) Republican you are.
 
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03:00
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
0.3% 0.00 0.3% 0.2%
03:00
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar)
3.8% -0.67 3.9% 4%
03:00
USD Average Weekly Hours (Mar)
34.2 0.00 34.2 34.2
03:00
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Mar)
62.5% - - 62.4%
03:00
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
228K 1.44 135K 117K
03:00
USD U6 Underemployment Rate (Mar)
7.9% - - 8%
03:00
USD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
4.2% 1.34 4.1% 4.1%

Non farm payrolls beats estimates
Earnings YOY down
Unemployment rate down slightly
Mkt was still strong in March.
The Fed is going to take rate cuts off the table. Everything happening is too inflationary.
 
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mr.h said:
03:00
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
0.3% 0.00 0.3% 0.2%
03:00
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar)
3.8% -0.67 3.9% 4%
03:00
USD Average Weekly Hours (Mar)
34.2 0.00 34.2 34.2
03:00
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Mar)
62.5% - - 62.4%
03:00
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
228K 1.44 135K 117K
03:00
USD U6 Underemployment Rate (Mar)
7.9% - - 8%
03:00
USD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
4.2% 1.34 4.1% 4.1%

Non farm payrolls beats estimates
Earnings YOY down
Unemployment rate down slightly
Mkt was still strong in March.
The Fed is going to take rate cuts off the table. Everything happening is too inflationary.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't unemployment be up slightly??
 
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mr.h said:
Just remember. Trump inherited a rising bull market.
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The stock market isn't the economy. There's also the debt, trade deficit, and federal budget deficit, all of which are in less than ideal positions.

But this is the stock market thread.
 
ithacane said:
Let’s be serious here. Do u really think the stock market isn’t going to turn around in the coming weeks and months?

Serious question
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Eventually…some stocks may take a lot longer to recover. The Fed may raise interest rates, we may see stagflation and GDP will drop. The economy is what I am worried about….but this is the stock market thread.
 
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mr.h said:
Eventually…some stocks may take a lot longer to recover. The Fed may raise interest rates, we may see stagflation and GDP will drop. The economy is what I am worried about….but this is the stock market thread.
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Unless u are retiring in the next few weeks u have nothing to worry about with your 401k

If u are investing in stocks, ride it out and buy low

Simple enough cause most likely the stock market (which is what… around where it was right before the election or a few months before?) will be back up and all will be good
 
Putting on a psychological hat there.
How many businesses will raise prices in anticipation of tariffs?
How many will encourage customers to buy now to avoid price increases?
Assuming people buy, how will that spending boost the economy in the near term?
By pulling demand from the future into the present, how will that impact when future demand falls?

None of that would be from the actual tariffs, but people's reactions.
 
ithacane said:
Unless u are retiring in the next few weeks u have nothing to worry about with your 401k

If u are investing in stocks, ride it out and buy low

Simple enough cause most likely the stock market (which is what… around where it was right before the election or a few months before?) will be back up and all will be good
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My philosophy in the 1970s bear market (a real grinder that lasted many years), in 1987 (was that Black Friday?), in the Tech crash of 2000, after 9-11, and in 2008. Still my philosophy today.

This is gonna be a real test for Trump to stay strong in the wake of maybe many coming defections from Republicans in Congress, and 100% Dem opposition.

Weaker Presidents have caved to that pressure which is, and will get even more, crushing. If he intended this only as a negotiating ploy, he can't start demonstrating that soon enough.
 
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