forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Cryptical Envelopment said:
My baby gives me the finance blues,
Tax me to the limit of my revenues.
Here she comes finger-poppin', clickety-click
She says furs or diamonds, you take your pick.
She wants money, what she wants...

How about, since you insist, put 50% into funds and save 50% for good individual stocks/options? Or even 75/25? There are a few good ideas on this board here and there. A few people have put forth some nice picks.

I am not invested in either of these but two funds that I think are smart, and have solid management, are FTCS and FLLV.

If you are going index like @LyndenCane22 alluded to, you can check out USMV too.
Click to expand...
I do find it kind if kind of funny that the two etf's you mentioned are the two we use in our models for our large cap allocation. :)
 
Advertisement
LyndenCane22 said:
I would agree with FTCS(FT is one of my fav new fund managers, we use it in a lot of our models) & swap FLLV for FLQL. A little cheaper and if you are looking for long term growth would shy away from the lower volatility aspect, it's virtually the same ETF. If you want to go down the stocks/options route I think you have to be honest with yourself and only do it if you are willing to put in the time and knowledge to learn and do your own due diligence. If you aren't I would stay out of it because you more than likely will only cost yourself more.

If you truly want to index I would lean towards finding a vanguard fund, historically solid returns, with minimal cost. Indexing is their bread and butter and they are good at it.
Click to expand...
LyndenCane22 said:
If you are looking to own ETF's that are more equity heavy over fixed income now isn't a bad time, market has pulled back quite a bit this month. As far as sector's I mean you can find any etf to pretty much suite your need. Ex. If you wanted to find an ETF that focused on 5G and the tech associated: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Broker/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=NXTG

Happy to help you find other examples if you have any other sectors you like/interested in.
Click to expand...
Yea I think a lot of that is the honesty that time intensive job, plus a newborn, plus life doesn’t leave much time to properly educate myself on individual stocks, so I may as well build in the diversification and let the professionals do what they do. I have my Roth totally in the vanguard NYSE index, so would probably diversify further from that ETF and pick a few other funds. The 5g one is interesting. Any recs either on here or in message are very Much appreciated!
 
wspcane said:
Yea I think a lot of that is the honesty that time intensive job, plus a newborn, plus life doesn’t leave much time to properly educate myself on individual stocks, so I may as well build in the diversification and let the professionals do what they do. I have my Roth totally in the vanguard NYSE index, so would probably diversify further from that ETF and pick a few other funds. The 5g one is interesting. Any recs either on here or in message are very Much appreciated!
Click to expand...
I think the one of the biggest things is just being knowledgeable with the investments you have. If you are knowledgeable you know what to expect from a volatility and risk standpoint. If that is something you are comfortable with you will tend to make smarter decisions along the way. You are less likely to panic/get mad at how things are going and know it's just a part of the process. I would agree the time constraints of work, kids, can definitely hamper the time you could put into investing/research.

As far as diversifying away from the NYSE index, that index is so broad, I would just lean towards large cap growth and then maybe a few sector etf's in something you find interesting/passionate about. Overall gives you something to watch/track without having a ton of work/thought process for you.
 
LyndenCane22 said:
I think the one of the biggest things is just being knowledgeable with the investments you have. If you are knowledgeable you know what to expect from a volatility and risk standpoint. If that is something you are comfortable with you will tend to make smarter decisions along the way. You are less likely to panic/get mad at how things are going and know it's just a part of the process. I would agree the time constraints of work, kids, can definitely hamper the time you could put into investing/research.

As far as diversifying away from the NYSE index, that index is so broad, I would just lean towards large cap growth and then maybe a few sector etf's in something you find interesting/passionate about. Overall gives you something to watch/track without having a ton of work/thought process for you.
Click to expand...

Agree. Definitely some focused tech fund exposure if long-term.

Also... well, ok, I am going to pivot... this is making me speak a different language than I want to. I just don't understand why someone would want to invest in their best 100 ideas or in the 100 best companies that fit into a restrictive profile when they can invest in their best 10.

I would carve a little space out in his portfolio for some TPL. People don't understand it still. It's going to spit cash, probably forever. They are the largest landholder in Texas I believe. Its converting from the trust to a C-corp which is going to take the handcuffs off. Its not only an energy and grazing and more play... but its a future water rights investment. Long term, it's a no-brainer and could be a difference-maker. Regardless, the risk is very low IMO. How about 5%, @wspcane?

And you just have to have some crypto exposure in your life. At least a bit. Some smart people are calling for 20x. And you can do it without worrying about owning coins. It's multi-purpose. It's a hedge, a tech investment to some extent, and it gives you some exposure to a supposed new economy. I'd grab some Galaxy (BRPHF), just a little, and tuck it away for now. They are aiming to be the Black Rock of crypto, and its a coin play too as they have holdings.

And holy crap, XOM is down so much it's spitting off around a 10% DIV. You are talking about one of the most substantial companies in the world. What a fantastic time to take a position and sit on it long-term and reinvest the dividends. I think that's an easy 15%-25% a year.

How about a little AAPL? Or more than a little? You're not buying an iPhone company. You're betting on the fact that some of the greatest and most innovative minds on the planet, who get to spend FIFTEEN BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR SOLEY ON RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT are going to come up with what's NEXT. You want to bet against what they have in their secret pipeline? I think you just have to have some, and it's down nicely from its highs. They are going to dominate digital services eventually too, not that they aren't killing it already.

I guess you should own a little AMZN. I never have because I've never seen an entry point. And I've been wrong the whole way.

These aren't stocks you have to "manage." This is buy and hold type stuff. Fvck funds.
 
Advertisement
Indexes are back in the bread line lining up for that sweet sweet stimulus munchin is dangling. Sad to watch.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Agree. Definitely some focused tech fund exposure if long-term.

Also... well, ok, I am going to pivot... this is making me speak a different language than I want to. I just don't understand why someone would want to invest in their best 100 ideas or in the 100 best companies that fit into a restrictive profile when they can invest in their best 10.

I would carve a little space out in his portfolio for some TPL. People don't understand it still. It's going to spit cash, probably forever. They are the largest landholder in Texas I believe. Its converting from the trust to a C-corp which is going to take the handcuffs off. Its not only an energy and grazing and more play... but its a future water rights investment. Long term, it's a no-brainer and could be a difference-maker. Regardless, the risk is very low IMO. How about 5%, @wspcane?

And you just have to have some crypto exposure in your life. At least a bit. Some smart people are calling for 20x. And you can do it without worrying about owning coins. It's multi-purpose. It's a hedge, a tech investment to some extent, and it gives you some exposure to a supposed new economy. I'd grab some Galaxy (BRPHF), just a little, and tuck it away for now. They are aiming to be the Black Rock of crypto, and its a coin play too as they have holdings.

And holy crap, XOM is down so much it's spitting off around a 10% DIV. You are talking about one of the most substantial companies in the world. What a fantastic time to take a position and sit on it long-term and reinvest the dividends. I think that's an easy 15%-25% a year.

How about a little AAPL? Or more than a little? You're not buying an iPhone company. You're betting on the fact that some of the greatest and most innovative minds on the planet, who get to spend FIFTEEN BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR SOLEY ON RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT are going to come up with what's NEXT. You want to bet against what they have in their secret pipeline? I think you just have to have some, and it's down nicely from its highs. They are going to dominate digital services eventually too, not that they aren't killing it already.

I guess you should own a little AMZN. I never have because I've never seen an entry point. And I've been wrong the whole way.

These aren't stocks you have to "manage." This is buy and hold type stuff. Fvck funds.
Click to expand...
CE, as usual a very good write up.

I fully understand why people want QQQ, instead of picking the top 10 from the 100, it's cause they don't have the time to actively monitor the individual stocks. Investors like you and me in a prior life can substantially outperform the market if you really devote the time.

I really like AAPL and AMZN and own both. Both stocks will outperform in the foreseeable future and IMHO double in 2 to 3 years.
 
Retirment accounts fully invested in Saas growth stocks:
ZM 31%
CRWD 23%
DDOG 22%
FSLY 9%
OKTA 7.5%
NET 7.5%

Taxable account
15% Gold
7.5% long treasuries
7.5% intermediate treasuries
60% stocks (TSLA, NVTA, SQ, ZM, DDOG, CRWD, ZM)

Stocks bought with intention to hold indefinitely but realistically 3-5 years (at long term cap gains)

Glide to a 40% equity 30% Gold 30% Treasuries over the next 20 years
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
My two cents (which I would invest wisely..)

Stick with broad based index funds. Broad based Index funds outperform the vast majority of mutual funds over a ten year period. The small percentage of mutual funds that do outperform almost invariably underperform in the next ten years.

While there certainly are many examples of individual stocks that outperform the market, picking those stocks is never obvious and the loss of diversification with no increased upside on average has made diversification obvious since the 1950s at least. In general, most individual investors will underperform the market as a whole by at least two percent per year.

Broad based domestic and international stock index funds, a bond fund, perhaps some TIPS allocated properly between taxable and non taxable accounts is far and away the best option for most everybody but select few (none of whom would be wasting their time on this message board)..
 
Advertisement
Yamayama said:
My two cents (which I would invest wisely..)

Stick with broad based index funds. Broad based Index funds outperform the vast majority of mutual funds over a ten year period. The small percentage of mutual funds that do outperform almost invariably underperform in the next ten years.

While there certainly are many examples of individual stocks that outperform the market, picking those stocks is never obvious and the loss of diversification with no increased upside on average has made diversification obvious since the 1950s at least. In general, most individual investors will underperform the market as a whole by at least two percent per year.

Broad based domestic and international stock index funds, a bond fund, perhaps some TIPS allocated properly between taxable and non taxable accounts is far and away the best option for most everybody but select few (none of whom would be wasting their time on this message board)..
Click to expand...
If you have no time or capacity to find great stocks, then this is great advice.

An alternative is to educate yourself and spend some time analyzing stocks in the Saas sector.

Why SaaS? How is it different?
SaaS: software as a subscription. This is cloud based services that an entire company can move to fairly easily and once incorporated into the company, becomes difficult to do without. Revenue is subscription based so its recurring, think netlfix. What makes it more special is that companies then use more of the services the following year (a user starts incorporating the service in more departments or the company offers new services to upsell). Think zoom: you initially use it for one department and soon add departments over time.

Once a company sells you a car, they have to wait for you to be ready to buy another car, so they need to find new customers. With SaaS you have recurring revenue built in and an integrated upsell. Since the software is in the cloud, integration is easy and can be done in one day. Margins are super high.

What to look for in a stock:
- rapid rev growth >40
- special niche (moat?)
- recurrent rev (SaaS, not capital intensive, high gross margins)
- rapidly improving metrics
- dollar-based retention rate >100%
- has cash, founder led, don’t have huge customer concentrations
- company is misunderstood
- Recurring Revenue:
... Recurring Revenue is the revenue that recurs each quarter because it is on a subscription.
... Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate ($NRR) takes the dollars received as revenue from all of last years customers in the year ago quarter and compares them to the dollars received from from those same customers this year, not counting any new customers acquired this year.

Perhaps consider slicing a portion of your equities into a few great companies.

Buffett and Cuban said spend all your efforts finding 3-6 great ideas.
 
Obcane said:
If you have no time or capacity to find great stocks, then this is great advice.

An alternative is to educate yourself and spend some time analyzing stocks in the Saas sector.

Why SaaS? How is it different?
SaaS: software as a subscription. This is cloud based services that an entire company can move to fairly easily and once incorporated into the company, becomes difficult to do without. Revenue is subscription based so its recurring, think netlfix. What makes it more special is that companies then use more of the services the following year (a user starts incorporating the service in more departments or the company offers new services to upsell). Think zoom: you initially use it for one department and soon add departments over time.

Once a company sells you a car, they have to wait for you to be ready to buy another car, so they need to find new customers. With SaaS you have recurring revenue built in and an integrated upsell. Since the software is in the cloud, integration is easy and can be done in one day. Margins are super high.

What to look for in a stock:
- rapid rev growth >40
- special niche (moat?)
- recurrent rev (SaaS, not capital intensive, high gross margins)
- rapidly improving metrics
- dollar-based retention rate >100%
- has cash, founder led, don’t have huge customer concentrations
- company is misunderstood
- Recurring Revenue:
... Recurring Revenue is the revenue that recurs each quarter because it is on a subscription.
... Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate ($NRR) takes the dollars received as revenue from all of last years customers in the year ago quarter and compares them to the dollars received from from those same customers this year, not counting any new customers acquired this year.

Perhaps consider slicing a portion of your equities into a few great companies.

Buffett and Cuban said spend all your efforts finding 3-6 great ideas.
Click to expand...

Are you in CLSK by any chance ?
 
Advertisement
HamburgerSV said:
Are you in CLSK by any chance ?
Click to expand...
No.
Quick review of CLSK
Revenues
0.0​
0.6​
0.0​
0.4​
0.1​
3.5​
0.0​
0.0​
Revenue growth
-100.0%​
29.2%​
​
446.1%​
-97.6%​
*Doesn't meet my criteria of 40% revenue growth. Automatically disqualified.

My holdings.
ZM 31%
CRWD 23%
DDOG 22%
FSLY 9%
OKTA 7.5%
NET 7.5%
 
George84 said:
@Cryptical Envelopment .... I want some exposure to VFF. How would you play it now? Was thinking of buying the stock and holding and putting a little on the options--how about the Nov 20 $4.00 puts?
Click to expand...

VFF at $4.68 is a good entry point to take a solid position. I've been buying. It's insane that its not at $7-$10 right now, even with the peripheral headwinds. Not sure what you mean by "putting a little on the options." Are you writing or buying the NOV $4 puts? If writing, I would be surprised if you get forced to buy the stock. I think you will pocket the premium. But that's why that put last traded at $0.21 - you're not going to get a lot for it. But yes worse case is you're buying VFF at $3.79. Yum.

FYI there is a big "playing favorites" thing with a lot of unprofessional moderation going on here. I've been banned twice now for things that people get away with every day. So I can't guarantee I will be around to comment on the trades I've put forth. Just a note so no one is left hanging if it goes down. I can't believe I had to actually write that, but here we are.
 
Obcane said:
Retirment accounts fully invested in Saas growth stocks:
ZM 31%
CRWD 23%
DDOG 22%
FSLY 9%
OKTA 7.5%
NET 7.5%

Taxable account
15% Gold
7.5% long treasuries
7.5% intermediate treasuries
60% stocks (TSLA, NVTA, SQ, ZM, DDOG, CRWD, ZM)

Stocks bought with intention to hold indefinitely but realistically 3-5 years (at long term cap gains)

Glide to a 40% equity 30% Gold 30% Treasuries over the next 20 years
Click to expand...
How do you like OKTA? Too late to get in?
 
Advertisement
Back
Top