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I sold a few of tomorrow's AAPL 121.25 puts to generate income. I try to keep calm and look for opportunities on a day like this. Let's see how it goes.
 
Boarcane said:
The rest of the year. Reading comprehension... respectfully, there’s a difference between now and the rest of the year. The market will pull back here. I’m guessing the S&P will see 2600. It will also come roaring back, just like it has. Rest of the year is ten lifetimes in markets. You’re not the Devi’s advocate. I’m talking about making it coming and going. I’m hoping we head into November with the DOW above 28,000. I’ll wait and see how the first two weeks of the pull back fairs.
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Ahhh ****. Looks like its coming in a hand basket!
 
Annual dividend yields at current prices:

XOM: 8.9%
NLY: 11.38%
ET: 19.4%
ARCC: 11%

All have significant upside potential for a capital gain, as well. Happy hunting.
 
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CFLCane said:
Pigs getting slaughtered today and the vix is steady rising. I'm staying out till at least mid day tomorrow.
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I'm keeping my powder dry too. I see this more as a reaction to the last few days than as a genuine opportunity to buy at a discount.
 
And I am buying more CYCN right now! I see today as a great opportunity to accumulate more of it.

$6.35

Expecting a strong next 45 days and on.
 
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Wow TPL under $530. Great opp. If it goes under $500, I am buying more, even though I don't need more.

This is a long-term, super safe hold that you will turn around in 10 years and be amazed by how much dividend and cap you've made on it. Ignore the published DIV. This thing is going to eventually start spitting off money, in perpetuity.

I've owned it for a while now, at $490. So you can see how close we are to that, without the time that's passed from my buy to today.

Great stock to buy some of and tuck away.

Edit adds:


www.tpltrust.com

Texas Pacific Land Trust Provides Update on Corporate Reorganization

www.tpltrust.com www.tpltrust.com

Overview/Operations: Texas Pacific Land Trust was created in the late-19th century as part of a railway bankruptcy reorganization in which bondholders were given an interest in approximately 3.5 million acres of land located in western Texas that had been put up as collateral against the bonds. The governing document requires any income earned from things like easement fees, grazing fees, oil, gas and mining royalties, or periodic land sales to be applied to the repurchase of shares and to pay dividends. Hence, TPL is a self-liquidating trust (i.e., perpetual buyback) that has been paying an increasing dividend (including a special div last year) that happens to own some of the most valuable real estate in all of the US - and the world, frankly - given its concentration in the oil-rich Permian Basin + recent shale oil boom.
An important recent development was the establishment of a water-services business (which has caused a rush of PE capital into TX). There are significant needs pertaining to water supply and disposal for the companies drilling on and near TPL’s land, and with the trust owning the water below ground on its acreage it is well situated to help customers meet those needs. The water business alone has the potential to surpass the value of the company’s real estate holdings, which by itself is massive.
Market Outlook: While fossil fuels get a bad rep and every day the importance of renewable energy grows, there is no doubt that the activity / shale drilling in the Permian Basin will continue to expand (now more than ever given the US’ call for energy-independence). Two credible sources below that corroborate the thesis:
- A McKinsey Associates study, which obviously took place with awareness of the current trends in clean energy technology, climate-change politics and regulation, estimated the increase in global oil demand through 2035. It analyzed the growth in required supply, inclusive of both the decline in existing reserve sources and the compensating increase from the development of new sources. The study put the 17-year increase in supply at 8 million barrels per day, up from a current base of 100 million. There were only two significant contributors to that net increase of 8 million barrels: off-shore production (which is only economic at much higher prices); and shale oil. Shale oil was estimated to account for 13 million additional barrels. Essentially, the global supply/demand balance will be largely contingent on U.S. shale, which will derive predominantly from the Permian Basin where Texas Pacific Land Trust’s (TPL) land and mineral positions are located.

- The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 165-page 2019 Annual Energy Outlook makes detailed projections about energy use and production through the year 2050. It takes account of all sources, from solar to nuclear. Its base case is for oil production to rise from about 10 million barrels/day presently, to about 14 million in the 2035 time frame. A further level of detail is theEIA’s determination of the regional sources of the increase in supply. According to EIA, the increase will come entirely from what they term the Southwest, but which their map makes clear is for the most part the Permian Basin.

Financials & Key Stats: If the qualitative story itself doesn’t pique your interest - check out the below financials snapshot:
- As of Sep-19, TPL owns 855,476 acres of land in Texas. The table below shows that its weighted average $/acre sale price since 2016 has been $5,252. Given the trust recently sold land for as much as $25k/acre, this yields a conservative valuation of $4.5B attributed solely to their land business (i.e., ignoring all other royalty revenue streams and their significant water-services business). Their market cap as of the close today (11/20/2019) was $5.27B.

Growth and profitability metrics that can’t be characterized as anything but insane:
o 2018revenueof$300M;18/17revofgrowthof94%;17/16revgrowthof134%;2Yr
CAGR of 113%
o 2018 OpEx represented just 13% of Sales (6% & 5% in 2017 & 2016, respectively)
▪ EBIT of $260M / 87% EBIT margin (94% & 95% in 2017 & 2016, respectively)
o Their largest expense is income taxes (17% in 2018) -- importance of C-Corp conversion!
▪ Also, just unheard of / incredibly impressive
o Total2018netincomeof$210M/70%margin
o 2018 NI/Certificate (read EPS) of $26.93; +118% Y/Y vs. the backdrop of a continual
liquidation/buyback
 
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Big O Cane said:
Stay out until Tuesday
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I never go all in or all out. You try to time these things, you miss some monster days. I want to buy the things I want when I see good value. If they drop more Monday, great! I will buy more. I'm pretty good in a knife fight.

I'll be buying some more VFF and BRHPF today, thank you! I'd be buying more LPTX, CYCN, and OTLK too but they've been holding up. I was hoping they would get caught in the wash and provide some opps but they haven't really dropped yet.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
I never go all in or all out. You try to time these things, you miss some monster days. I want to buy the things I want when I see good value. If they drop more Monday, great! I will buy more. I'm pretty good in a knife fight.
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Exactly. That's why I'll buy long-term targets on a day like today without dropping my whole stack. If they go up from here, great - guaranteed profit. If not, I'm comfortable buying more on the way down 'cus I have decade-level confidence in those plays.
 
Bccrhp said:
Exactly. That's why I'll buy long-term targets on a day like today without dropping my whole stack. If they go up from here, great - guaranteed profit. If not, I'm comfortable buying more on the way down 'cus I have decade-level confidence in those plays.
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You should start a TPL position right about now. You get it. Take a deep dive into it. Once they finish their conversion from a trust to a C-corp, the gloves are going to come off. Very, very low risk. They own 900,000 acres in Texas and just sit back and take the royalties and lease revenue. The best part is its not just an oil and grazing play, its going to become a WATER play too. Own some at this great price and tuck it away before the word gets out.
 
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Cryptical Envelopment said:
I sold a few of tomorrow's AAPL 121.25 puts to generate income. I try to keep calm and look for opportunities on a day like this. Let's see how it goes.
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Holy **** this trade was in trouble all day. Deep trouble. Thank god AAPL rallied in the 4th quarter. This put (I sold it short) hit a high of over $10 today (bad because its a short for me!) and a low of $.05 ( I wanted it to get to zero). Talk about swings. After the debacle in the markets and the tech drops over the last two days, this was 45 seconds away from finishing completely out of the money with a come from behind grand slam in the 9th! But the clock ran out right as it dipped, and it finished in the money by only $.29. 29 cent difference in the price of AAPL and I would have made 100% on my money overnight.

Good news is I was paid an $.80 premium so I actually made 60% on the trade. In 24 hours. But if AAPL had dropped just another $0.51 at the close I would have lost money.

Aren't options wild?
 
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Cryptical Envelopment said:
Absolutely. And they've been performing well as you know. I especially like them at the entry points I've recommended. As far as price, I think LPTX is a great value now that could pop soon too.

To be more clear, I say BUY BUY BUY LPTX right now at 1.68 and don't get cute about it.

I own a lot of all three. Please see my recent posts on all of them using the search feature. Read the link on VFF. If I could bet a parlay on all three of these doubling in the next year, I would love to get money down on those odds. Greedily, I am hoping for more.

If I ever have any reason to feel otherwise, or if I think its time to take some off the table, I promise to post about it. I won't ghost on an existing rec.
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LPTX closed a brutal week in the market at... $1.85

So we are up over 10% on this even though the S&P dropped 2.4%. So we kicked the market's ***. Funny, you find your hedges in the most surprising places. :)

Time to get "happy." Have a great weekend.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
You should start a TPL position right about now. You get it. Take a deep dive into it. Once they finish their conversion from a trust to a C-corp, the gloves are going to come off. Very, very low risk. They own 900,000 acres in Texas and just sit back and take the royalties and lease revenue. The best part is its not just an oil and grazing play, its going to become a WATER play too. Own some at this great price and tuck it away before the word gets out.
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Thanks for the tip. I'll do a deep dive this weekend. The whole oil aspect worries me, but like you said, it's a big chunk of land.
 
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Bccrhp said:
Thanks for the tip. I'll do a deep dive this weekend. The whole oil aspect worries me, but like you said, it's a big chunk of land.
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No worries. Start with post 1128 above.

"The water business alone has the potential to surpass the value of the company’s real estate holdings, which by itself is massive."
 
chrisRMNU said:
Village Farms? What is making you think it could be a big mover?
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Please use the search feature for this thread to see my posts. I’ve written extensively about it many times over the past 3-4 months. Been buying it since under $3. Buying calls and selling puts as well.

www.google.com

Village Farms low share price “makes no sense”, says Raymond James

It’s only a matter of time before Village Farms International (TSX:VFF) really takes off, says Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser
www.google.com
 
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