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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion
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TheEye
Firing won't change the mediocrity.
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You really didn’t.****. I missed the buy window.
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So panic was unnecessary. Got it.
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This is NOT a "normal" market, whatever that might mean. As I and others like @90scane have mentioned several times, the market was WAY overbought, reflecting irrational exuberance, unfettered government spending and a Fed that was way late in raising. Many of the economic stats have been deteriorating for a while now, and the jobs data, one of the few positive ones, keeps getting adjusted down, so I would argue the recession started a while ago.
That is a long answer, I could have instead said "be patient" until either the trade wars are over and/or the Fed cuts (and I think they will cut). Remember though, that bear markets have short covering rallies and other dead cat bounces.
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Rates still up huge for the day. Whomever put out that rumor should be charged with manipulation.
Some key factors I watch:
Yield Curve was inverted for a long time.
The FED and Treasury were still doing QE into 2024. The FED in late 24 continued with their balance sheet reduction with no QE on the backend as the reverse repo had run out of funds. Thus, M2 was now reducing at a much faster rate of speed than '22 - early '24.
I also like the Buffett indicator (SP500 to GDP) which was around 200% and already down to around 175%.
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True, but one day does not make a trend. Not a fan of LQD personally, but thats just me.
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Yes, we'll have to see what happens in coming days. Still was largest move down (%) in ZB since COVID crash.
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I don’t get why anyone thinks the economy and stocks shouldn’t take a massive haircut. Literally unless AI+Robotics combined with Massive Energy Cost reductions are put in place to significantly improve our output efficiency, there needed/needs to be correction if we want to get healthier. Thats all there really is to it. These decisions need to be made on a 2-10 year or longer time horizon, not based on what the stock market is doing today or tomorrow or a month from now.
Ultimately if that happens, and the US Gov stabilizes I think it’ll be good for the market still. The teeter tottering is bad. Just say Tarriffs are happening, period. Behind the scenes you can negotiate with countries individually, but deregulation, reducing energy prices, and domestic manufacturing are critical. Honestly I feel the only country we don’t end up getting a reasonable solution for in the next 1-3months is China. Canada and Mexico should be easy. I think most of the Asian states should be fine, The EU should be medium difficulty. But China is the one I don’t think we will be having major agreement with…
Ultimately if that happens, and the US Gov stabilizes I think it’ll be good for the market still. The teeter tottering is bad. Just say Tarriffs are happening, period. Behind the scenes you can negotiate with countries individually, but deregulation, reducing energy prices, and domestic manufacturing are critical. Honestly I feel the only country we don’t end up getting a reasonable solution for in the next 1-3months is China. Canada and Mexico should be easy. I think most of the Asian states should be fine, The EU should be medium difficulty. But China is the one I don’t think we will be having major agreement with…
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