I agree on the 10-15 year time horizon.Tesla profits will depend on production of vehicles, government credits for EV buying, solar credits, more mass production models (4 currently). If they add the model 2, cyber, and semi all in 1-3 years, profits should be fine. Fsd will be much longer than 1-3 years. My projection would be 10-15 years for the real “replace human” implementation.
EVs and Solar have some massive head windows on the mining/minerals front. Until we can have sodium ion or graphene solutions that are much easier to mine/produce, we are looking at a tough path forward for the retirement of ICE.
As an investor, I'm looking at a much shorter window, and progress with FSD, and actually Impimenting it in controlled situations, I think could keep the stock moving up.