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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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mr.h said:
And I thought banks made more money with higher interest rates.
Who knew…
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The issue with banks is real estate credit, especially office and commercial. Most also have serious MTM problems on their bond portfolios, especially BAC
 
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90scane said:
Still up today but I’m not in public companies
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This the stock market thread. If you held AI related stocks, you would be up for the week. AAPL moved on AI news.
Private companies and businesses are thriving. On this we agree.
 
Bird4um said:
Inflation is rising fast. If fed cuts rates it’s a political back channel. Should be no cuts this year. May even raise again.
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What I wrote above is bolded, my sense is that the Fed wont move until after the election, and the next move might be up, not down. If there is stagflation, almost everyone here would have to throw out their current playbook and go back to the '70's.

BUT as we have discussed, the big fear is stagflation, which no one wants to talk about because its so ugly, but the chances of that keep slowly but surely rising. A lot of the Congress approved spending hasnt even been spent.
 
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SpikeUM said:
What I wrote above is bolded, my sense is that the Fed wont move until after the election, and the next move might be up, not down. If there is stagflation, almost everyone here would have to throw out their current playbook and go back to the '70's.

BUT as we have discussed, the big fear is stagflation, which no one wants to talk about because its so ugly, but the chances of that keep slowly but surely rising. A lot of the Congress approved spending hasnt even been spent.
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I would actually go back to the 1940s when government debt was sky high, inflation high, supply chains a mess… the bigger concern: we could actually be heading towards more wars and supply chain issues.

Interesting: we are looking at the longest inversions in history. The other inversions that lasted over 500 days caused massive market corrections of 50-90% but the sample size is clearly small.


Did anyone see the latest breakdown on inflation? Car insurance and maintenance were a major factor followed by rent & housing.

what is the play on that information? Do we see more diy car work like oil changes, filters, etc. I know I have changed spark plugs in a car in the last year after getting a $600 quote. Took me 1hr and I taught my kids how to change them. Also changed brakes after an $600 quote. It maybe a really good business to start unless the insurance costs eat all the margins.
 
90scane said:
I would actually go back to the 1940s when government debt was sky high, inflation high, supply chains a mess… the bigger concern: we could actually be heading towards more wars and supply chain issues.

Interesting: we are looking at the longest inversions in history. The other inversions that lasted over 500 days caused massive market corrections of 50-90% but the sample size is clearly small.


Did anyone see the latest breakdown on inflation? Car insurance and maintenance were a major factor followed by rent & housing.

what is the play on that information? Do we see more diy car work like oil changes, filters, etc. I know I have changed spark plugs in a car in the last year after getting a $600 quote. Took me 1hr and I taught my kids how to change them. Also changed brakes after an $600 quote. It maybe a really good business to start unless the insurance costs eat all the margins.
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I can’t hang a picture. I have to bargain hunt for “handy men and mechanics”
 
@90scane @TheEye We have previously chatted about rents likely taking off again in '25 or '26, and they are already firming up.

It started Monday with a New York Fed consumer survey showing expectations for rent increases over the next year rising dramatically, to 8.7%, or 2.6 percentage points higher than the February survey. The outlook for food, gas, medical care and education costs all rose as well.

 
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SpikeUM said:
@90scane @TheEye We have previously chatted about rents likely taking off again in '25 or '26, and they are already firming up.

It started Monday with a New York Fed consumer survey showing expectations for rent increases over the next year rising dramatically, to 8.7%, or 2.6 percentage points higher than the February survey. The outlook for food, gas, medical care and education costs all rose as well.

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some of that 8.7% is forced on landlords due to higher taxes and insurance rates. For example, my vacation rental assessment doubled this year. I’m fighting it as I don’t think I could sell the house for the assessed value. I have other houses that have increased by $50/month so yes I pass that along as rent increases.
 
90scane said:
some of that 8.7% is forced on landlords due to higher taxes and insurance rates. For example, my vacation rental assessment doubled this year. I’m fighting it as I don’t think I could sell the house for the assessed value. I have other houses that have increased by $50/month so yes I pass that along as rent increases.
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And debt service.
 
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SpikeUM said:
@90scane @TheEye We have previously chatted about rents likely taking off again in '25 or '26, and they are already firming up.

It started Monday with a New York Fed consumer survey showing expectations for rent increases over the next year rising dramatically, to 8.7%, or 2.6 percentage points higher than the February survey. The outlook for food, gas, medical care and education costs all rose as well.

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New York Fed says rent rates are going up? Locally? As in New York? That would make sense since the mass exodus during covid times.

Here in Florida I don't see any higher rent from a year ago. One of my landlord friends had to cut $50 a month per unit to find tenants.
 
TheEye said:
New York Fed says rent rates are going up? Locally? As in New York? That would make sense since the mass exodus during covid times.

Here in Florida I don't see any higher rent from a year ago. One of my landlord friends had to cut $50 a month per unit to find tenants.
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NY Fed is reporting expectations for large rent increases over the next year (nationwide)
 
TheEye said:
New York Fed says rent rates are going up? Locally? As in New York? That would make sense since the mass exodus during covid times.

Here in Florida I don't see any higher rent from a year ago. One of my landlord friends had to cut $50 a month per unit to find tenants.
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As best as I can tell in Florida, Jacksonville is well overbuilt and Orlando too but to a lesser extent. Outside of that, most of the state is still hot.
 
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