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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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Canedog said:
March 26th, DJT hit $79. Closed today at $48.66.
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Donald Trump GIF by GIPHY News
 
12:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Mar 29) 5.2%--3.9%
14:00USDFactory Orders (MoM)(Feb) 1.4%0.651%-3.8%
14:00USDJOLTS Job Openings(Feb) 8.756M0.058.74M8.748M
Josh Schafer
·Reporter
Tue, April 2, 2024 at 12:42 PM EDT·3 min read

Job openings data shows US labor market remains 'quite healthy​

Job openings ticked up slightly in February as hiring also increased, reflecting further signs of resilience in the US labor market.
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed there were 8.76 million jobs open at the end of February, a slight increase from the 8.75 million job openings in January, which was revised lower. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the report to show there were 8.73 million openings in February.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey also showed 5.8 million hires were made during the month, a slight increase from the 5.7 million seen in January.
The hiring rate picked up slightly to 3.7% in February, up from the 3.6% rate seen in January.

*Just so you know.. The Redbook Index is same store sales from a sample of large retailers. Look at the jump in Factory orders...This economy is humming..
 
mr.h said:
12:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Mar 29)5.2%--3.9%
14:00USDFactory Orders (MoM)(Feb)1.4%0.651%-3.8%
14:00USDJOLTS Job Openings(Feb)8.756M0.058.74M8.748M
Josh Schafer
·Reporter
Tue, April 2, 2024 at 12:42 PM EDT·3 min read

Job openings data shows US labor market remains 'quite healthy​

Job openings ticked up slightly in February as hiring also increased, reflecting further signs of resilience in the US labor market.
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed there were 8.76 million jobs open at the end of February, a slight increase from the 8.75 million job openings in January, which was revised lower. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the report to show there were 8.73 million openings in February.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey also showed 5.8 million hires were made during the month, a slight increase from the 5.7 million seen in January.
The hiring rate picked up slightly to 3.7% in February, up from the 3.6% rate seen in January.

*Just so you know.. The Redbook Index is same store sales from a sample of large retailers. Look at the jump in Factory orders...This economy is humming..
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Likely rate cuts pushed further out?
 
I have been bearish and obviously wrong, but the reasons I am bearish are only getting stronger. Market is WAY overbought, the Fed may not cut this year, Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper and other commodities are flying, long term rates are going up, the deficit is approaching $40 Trillion, etc. etc.

There is still too much liquidity out there due to government spending, so maybe it keeps going, but at some point........
 
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SpikeUM said:
I have been bearish and obviously wrong, but the reasons I am bearish are only getting stronger. Market is WAY overbought, the Fed may not cut this year, Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper and other commodities are flying, long term rates are going up, the deficit is approaching $40 Trillion, etc. etc.

There is still too much liquidity out there due to government spending, so maybe it keeps going, but at some point........
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Something has to give.. the rate everything is going up can’t be good
 
SpikeUM said:
I have been bearish and obviously wrong, but the reasons I am bearish are only getting stronger. Market is WAY overbought, the Fed may not cut this year, Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper and other commodities are flying, long term rates are going up, the deficit is approaching $40 Trillion, etc. etc.

There is still too much liquidity out there due to government spending, so maybe it keeps going, but at some point........
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What happened to the other countries currently dealing with the same issues?
 
TheEye said:
What happened to the other countries currently dealing with the same issues?
Click to expand...

Good question, but its a complicated question and answer. The key issue is the deficit, which Is at its highest level ever vs. GDP, even higher than WWII, and will continue going higher.

Short term that feels good but is very bad medium and longer term, similar to when you go on a spree on your credit and buy lots of stuff you cant afford. Remember the sacrifices made in WWII like the rationing and the inflation that happened after LBJ's guns and butter policies. Sooner or later you have to pay the piper.

When countries have huge budget deficits they then have runaway inflation and become uninvestible, leading to a downward spiral. We are not there yet because we are the worlds reserve currency - for now anyway, but my sense is that gold and silver are running up partly because countries and individuals want to lower their dollar exposure, which is a huge warning sign, and rates are going up on the long end because investors want to be paid more for their loan. Remember that our interest rates are higher than Europe's, Japan's, etc.

We are fortunate because of the size and strength of our economy, our technology and innovation, capitalistic economy, etc. will limit the downside more than other countries, but its still an issue.
 
SpikeUM said:
Good question, but its a complicated question and answer. The key issue is the deficit, which Is at its highest level ever vs. GDP, even higher than WWII, and will continue going higher.

Short term that feels good but is very bad medium and longer term, similar to when you go on a spree on your credit and buy lots of stuff you cant afford. Remember the sacrifices made in WWII like the rationing and the inflation that happened after LBJ's guns and butter policies. Sooner or later you have to pay the piper.

When countries have huge budget deficits they then have runaway inflation and become uninvestible, leading to a downward spiral. We are not there yet because we are the worlds reserve currency - for now anyway, but my sense is that gold and silver are running up partly because countries and individuals want to lower their dollar exposure, which is a huge warning sign, and rates are going up on the long end because investors want to be paid more for their loan. Remember that our interest rates are higher than Europe's, Japan's, etc.

We are fortunate because of the size and strength of our economy, our technology and innovation, capitalistic economy, etc. will limit the downside more than other countries, but its still an issue.
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If other countries are worse off, then those would be our canaries in the coal mine. If our interest rates are higher then we have more room for cuts in the face of recession.
 
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USDADP Employment Change(Mar) 184K

The mkt kid stagnant because it fears that we won’t have rate cuts. We will see cuts and the mkt. will shoot up. It’s an election year. Patience is a virtue… lol
 
13:45
USD		Fed's Bowman speech SPEECH
13:45
USD		S&P Global Composite PMI(Mar) 52.1
13:45
USD		S&P Global Services PMI(Mar) 51.7
14:00
USD		ISM Services Employment Index(Mar) 48.5
14:00
USD		ISM Services New Orders Index(Mar) 54.4
14:00
USD		ISM Services PMI(Mar) 51.4
14:00
USD		ISM Services Prices Paid(Mar) 53.4
Any number over 50 shows growth
 
SpikeUM said:
Good question, but its a complicated question and answer. The key issue is the deficit, which Is at its highest level ever vs. GDP, even higher than WWII, and will continue going higher.

Short term that feels good but is very bad medium and longer term, similar to when you go on a spree on your credit and buy lots of stuff you cant afford. Remember the sacrifices made in WWII like the rationing and the inflation that happened after LBJ's guns and butter policies. Sooner or later you have to pay the piper.

When countries have huge budget deficits they then have runaway inflation and become uninvestible, leading to a downward spiral. We are not there yet because we are the worlds reserve currency - for now anyway, but my sense is that gold and silver are running up partly because countries and individuals want to lower their dollar exposure, which is a huge warning sign, and rates are going up on the long end because investors want to be paid more for their loan. Remember that our interest rates are higher than Europe's, Japan's, etc.

We are fortunate because of the size and strength of our economy, our technology and innovation, capitalistic economy, etc. will limit the downside more than other countries, but its still an issue.
Click to expand...

I swear people look at the deficit like a kid at a credit card he doesn’t think he has to pay back.

I know my boss is heavy in gold and always has been.. buys 4-5 gold eagle rolls a year. I’m heavy in silver when I was young and couldn’t afford gold but the problem always becomes how do you get fair value back out as everyone wants to pay scrap or less.
 
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Canefan4life said:
I swear people look at the deficit like a kid at a credit card he doesn’t think he has to pay back.

I know my boss is heavy in gold and always has been.. buys 4-5 gold eagle rolls a year. I’m heavy in silver when I was young and couldn’t afford gold but the problem always becomes how do you get fair value back out as everyone wants to pay scrap or less.
Click to expand...

Gold and silver are usually trades to get in and out of, as evidenced by the last few years being down and the surge this year.
 
SpikeUM said:
Good question, but its a complicated question and answer. The key issue is the deficit, which Is at its highest level ever vs. GDP, even higher than WWII, and will continue going higher.

Short term that feels good but is very bad medium and longer term, similar to when you go on a spree on your credit and buy lots of stuff you cant afford. Remember the sacrifices made in WWII like the rationing and the inflation that happened after LBJ's guns and butter policies. Sooner or later you have to pay the piper.

When countries have huge budget deficits they then have runaway inflation and become uninvestible, leading to a downward spiral. We are not there yet because we are the worlds reserve currency - for now anyway, but my sense is that gold and silver are running up partly because countries and individuals want to lower their dollar exposure, which is a huge warning sign, and rates are going up on the long end because investors want to be paid more for their loan. Remember that our interest rates are higher than Europe's, Japan's, etc.

We are fortunate because of the size and strength of our economy, our technology and innovation, capitalistic economy, etc. will limit the downside more than other countries, but its still an issue.
Click to expand...
The last paragraph 1000%.
 
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