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I see CPI dropping tomorrow…
PPI dropping Wednesday…along with retail sales.
Can all that drive the market up, even with a Moody downgrade?…
 
At this point, most eyes should be looking at Congress. If the government shuts down, we are looking at some serious pain in the coming weeks and months. That would likely be enough to keep the FED from raising rates and could lead to things breaking. Otherwise, we keep holding rates high waiting for things to break without government shutdowns.
 
90scane said:
At this point, most eyes should be looking at Congress. If the government shuts down, we are looking at some serious pain in the coming weeks and months. That would likely be enough to keep the FED from raising rates and could lead to things breaking. Otherwise, we keep holding rates high waiting for things to break without government shutdowns.
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these government shutdowns NEVER work. It will most certainly lead to the halt of rate hikes as it will slow the economy.
 
09:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Oct) 0% -1.340.1% 0.4%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Oct) 3.2% -1.023.3% 3.7%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Oct) 311.37--310.66
09:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Oct) 0.2% -1.580.3% 0.3%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Oct) 4% -1.254.1% 4.1%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Oct) 307.671--307.789
09:45GBPBoE's Pill speech SPEECH
09:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Nov 10) 3% --3.1%
CPI price index down across the board
retail sales down…
 
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I read just read this, and its funny and true:

After the most aggressive campaign of hikes in a generation, people are starting to mention that the first reductions usually don’t come that long after the last increase. As Louis-Vincent Gave from Gavekal Research put it in a note Tuesday: “Rate hikes are like tequila shots: one never knows when one’s had enough until one’s had too much.”
 
mr.h said:
09:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Oct)0% -1.340.1%0.4%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Oct)3.2% -1.023.3%3.7%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Oct)311.37--310.66
09:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Oct)0.2% -1.580.3%0.3%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Oct)4% -1.254.1%4.1%
09:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Oct)307.671--307.789
09:45GBPBoE's Pill speechSPEECH
09:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Nov 10)3% --3.1%
CPI price index down across the board
retail sales down…
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I was expecting some major holiday sales this year. Anyone notice anything abnormal?
 

09:30		USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Nov)9.1*0.90-2.8-4.6
09:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Oct)-0.5% *-3.440.1%0.4%
09:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Oct)1.3% *-1.551.9%2.2%
09:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Oct)0% -4.010.3%0.2%
09:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Oct)2.4% *-2.7%2.7%
09:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Oct)-0.1% *0.73-0.3%0.9%
09:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Oct)0.2% *--0.7%
09:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Oct)0.1% *0.390%0.8%
Manufacturing up
PPI- down
retail down
boomshakalaka
 
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This OpenAI drama is crazy. For the board to do that (including one of the founders and literal head of the entire research - Ilya), I feel like this is a case of them having a major breakthrough, and the people representing the non-profit side that OpenAI was started for were in serious disagreement with the for-profit side that is Sam Altman/Brockman

But Microsoft announcing that Altman/Brockman will basically joing them to run their own basically deepmind, is a MAJOR win for Microsoft. I think they’ll likely take up to half the top talent from OpenAI with them. And they’ll probably have a legit gpt4 competitor within 6 months given just how much Microsoft will be giving them. Basically gunna have a black check and access to a shut load of compute immediately

I think Microsoft just lucked into an even better situation than when they were partnered with Open AI because that had limits. Now they get both!

I think this is a MAJOR W for Microsoft.
 
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mr.h said:

09:30		USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Nov)9.1*0.90-2.8-4.6
09:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Oct)-0.5% *-3.440.1%0.4%
09:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Oct)1.3% *-1.551.9%2.2%
09:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Oct)0% -4.010.3%0.2%
09:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Oct)2.4% *-2.7%2.7%
09:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Oct)-0.1% *0.73-0.3%0.9%
09:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Oct)0.2% *--0.7%
09:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Oct)0.1% *0.390%0.8%
Manufacturing up
PPI- down
retail down
boomshakalaka
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Where is the market headed from here?
 
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I hate when porsters write "I told you so" posts, so go ahead and hate on me, but I told ya ESG was pure Wall Street marketing

  • Wall Street rushed to embrace sustainable investing just a few years ago. Now it is quietly closing funds or scrubbing their names after disappointing returns that have investors cashing out billions. The about-face comes after tightened regulatory oversight, higher interest rates that have slammed clean-energy stocks and a backlash that has made environmental, social and corporate-governance investing a political target. The third quarter was the first time more sustainable funds liquidated or removed ESG criteria from their investment practices than were added, according to Morningstar. That is a reversal from not that long ago, when companies were rebranding faltering funds to cash in on the billions of dollars flowing into sustainable investment products. The retreat comes after investors withdrew more than $14 billion from sustainable funds this year, leaving them with $299 billion, The WSJ reports.
 
SpikeUM said:
I hate when porsters write "I told you so" posts, so go ahead and hate on me, but I told ya ESG was pure Wall Street marketing

  • Wall Street rushed to embrace sustainable investing just a few years ago. Now it is quietly closing funds or scrubbing their names after disappointing returns that have investors cashing out billions. The about-face comes after tightened regulatory oversight, higher interest rates that have slammed clean-energy stocks and a backlash that has made environmental, social and corporate-governance investing a political target. The third quarter was the first time more sustainable funds liquidated or removed ESG criteria from their investment practices than were added, according to Morningstar. That is a reversal from not that long ago, when companies were rebranding faltering funds to cash in on the billions of dollars flowing into sustainable investment products. The retreat comes after investors withdrew more than $14 billion from sustainable funds this year, leaving them with $299 billion, The WSJ reports.
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The only thing that makes sense with ESG is the G. And the OpenAI clown show shows that.

The E can make some sense - if all else is pretty equal. Like if you can choose between two things that are similar, I’d prefer things done in an environmentally friendly way - up to a point. Some people take **** too far though.

The S is pure stupidity pretty much.
 
calinative umstudent said:
The only thing that makes sense with ESG is the G. And the OpenAI clown show shows that.

The E can make some sense - if all else is pretty equal. Like if you can choose between two things that are similar, I’d prefer things done in an environmentally friendly way - up to a point. Some people take **** too far though.

The S is pure stupidity pretty much.
Click to expand...

The E is expensive, and only ****es people off, I dont see it being financially feasible for at least a decade. I agree on he G, and its whats paid the least attention to.
 
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09:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Nov 10)1.84M--1.862M
09:30USDDurable Goods Orders(Oct)-5.4% -1.26-3.1%4.6%
09:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Defense(Oct)-6.7% --5.7%
09:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Oct)0% -0.570.1%0.4%
09:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Nov 17)209K-1.87225K233K
09:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Nov 17)220K--220.75K
09:30USDNondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Oct)-0.1% -0.640.1%0.5%
a mix….
Durable goods orders down
initial jobless claims less than expected.
Nvidia blowout !!!!!
 
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