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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

561caneforever said:
That is a bunch of BS right there.
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Today bank earnings beat. Earnings are strong, jobs are plentiful and I believe the Fed will give up on their 2% fairy tale.
We’ve lived through higher interest before and grew substantially.
The rates that the Fed kept artificially low was the anomaly and caused inflation.
 
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mr.h said:
The rates that the Fed kept artificially low was the anomaly and caused inflation.
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Creating trillions in dollars via QE (buying bonds) along with the government adding trillions to the deficit of non-existent money caused inflation. The rates don't cause an increase or decrease in the monetary supply and thus don't cause inflation.

Rates being low just means X person can borrow Y funds from a lender at the cost of said rates. The Y funds come from deposits at banks (consumers/companies OR the FED QE). When the government hands out a ton of funds to citizens, those either get spent or deposited. If deposited, they get converted into funds for loans thus creating new money and higher inflation.

Since we created TRILLIONS, it will take a long time to slowly inflate our way back to 2019 debt to GDP. Not even going to dream of getting back to the 1960s. The FED for its part is selling off 80-100B of bonds every month. This is truly KILLING monetary supply (well until they do more QE) thus forcing the economy to contract by 1-2T/yr. Congress & the President for their part are giving away more funds even with a HOT economy.

What we don't want to see is more MBS purchasing by the FED and more deficit spending by the governments while having sound budgets over the next 5-10 years. We also need inflation to devalue the USD at around 3-5% annually for 10 years. Thus, $32T (if they stopped spending and just balanced) would look more like $15-20T after the dollar's value decreased via inflation.

We hopefully continue to grow GDP via automation, controlled population growth via immigration, and steady growth of workforce participation.
 
Would you believe it’s been over a year since the Dow closed below 30k?
 
So the debt is high, inflation is stubborn, oil is high, we are financing 2 wars…..
tell me again why we should be down….lol

The economy is still strong and I believe the Fed will settle for 3% inflation. We are producing more oil than anytime under Trump and we have freighters of LNG shipments to Europe. They need to expand at the receiving end…
AI, Weight Loss meds are happening now and in the future. Electric vehicles need lithium, copper, nickel and cobalt. Semiconductors are needed, especially made in America…
A lot of investment opportunities and EARNINGS are coming.
 
08:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Sep) 0.7% 1.220.3% 0.8%
08:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Sep) 0.6% --0.2%
08:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Sep) 0.6% 1.600.2% 0.9%
Retail sales beat..but down from last month.
 
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Higher rates are helping banks….watch the earnings.
08:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Oct 13) 4.6% --4%
09:15USDCapacity Utilization(Sep) 79.7% 0.3079.6% 79.5%
09:15USDIndustrial Production (MoM)(Sep) 0.3% 0.650% 0%
All UP from last month. ^^^
 
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FWIW, we are nearing/at two critical S&P technical support levels; we closed yesterday at the first key support level, and if we breach that the next one is around 100 points lower. Historically, the lower level (low 4100's) is the absolute key.
 
SpikeUM said:
FWIW, we are nearing/at two critical S&P technical support levels; we closed yesterday at the first key support level, and if we breach that the next one is around 100 points lower. Historically, the lower level (low 4100's) is the absolute key.
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Thinking of selling a lot. But probably already too late.
 
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Bird4um said:
Thinking of selling a lot. But probably already too late.
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Dow has not dipped below 30K in over a year. You are probably fine to sell a significant amount and get the guaranteed 5%. Problem is, with inflation being a constant, not only may it outperform your 5%, but it will likely also prop up all the markets too.
 
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TheEye said:
Dow has not dipped below 30K in over a year. You are probably fine to sell a significant amount and get the guaranteed 5%. Problem is, with inflation being a constant, not only may it outperform your 5%, but it will likely also prop up all the markets too.
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This is all because of the bond yields being high. When they fall we rally. Everyone freaked when they were inverted.
We have productivity growth, job growth and we are basically in a soft landing, despite higher rates for longer.
 
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09:45USDS&P Global Composite PMI(Oct) PREL 51--50.2
09:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Oct) PREL 500.4049.549.8
09:45USDS&P Global Services PMI(Oct) PREL 50.92.4849.950.1
From these percentages, an index is derived: a level above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), and below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).
 
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SpikeUM said:
FWIW, we are nearing/at two critical S&P technical support levels; we closed yesterday at the first key support level, and if we breach that the next one is around 100 points lower. Historically, the lower level (low 4100's) is the absolute key.
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First close below 4200,......only about 2% above a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement
 
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Oct 13)1.79M2.331.74M1.727M
08:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q3) PREL 2.4% -0.982.5%3.7%
08:30USDDurable Goods Orders(Sep)4.7% 1.881.5%-0.1%
08:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Defense(Sep)5.8% ---0.7%
08:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Sep)0.5% 1.070.2%0.5%
08:30USDGoods Trade Balance(Sep) PREL $-85.8B-0.05$-85.5B$-84.5B
08:30USDGross Domestic Product Annualized(Q3) PREL *****4.9% 1.884.2%2.1%
08:30USDGross Domestic Product Price Index(Q3) PREL *****3.5% 3.332.5%1.7%
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Oct 20)210K0.24208K198K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Oct 20)207.5K--206.25K
08:30USDNondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Sep)0.6% 0.730.2%1.1%
08:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q3) PREL 2.9% --2.5%
08:30USDWholesale Inventories(Sep) PREL 0% ---0.1%

look at GDP and durable goods.
very strong economic numbers
high interest rates will slow the economy
 
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