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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Jun 2)1.775M-1.765M1.755M
08:30USDExport Price Index (MoM)(May)-1.9% -0%-0.1%
08:30USDExport Price Index (YoY)(May)-10.1% --8.1%-5.9%
08:30USDImport Price Index (MoM)(May)-0.6% --0.1%0.3%
08:30USDImport Price Index (YoY)(May)-5.9% --5.8%-4.8%
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Jun 9)262K-249K262K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Jun 9)246.75K--237.5K
08:30USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Jun)6.6--15.1-31.8
08:30USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Jun)-13.7--14-10.4
08:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(May)0.3% --0.1%0.4%
08:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(May)0.2% -0%0.6%
08:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(May)0.1% 00.1%0.4%

retail sales up *
NY State Manufacturing up
Philadelphia fed manufacturing down
jobless claims up, but fractionally
continuing claims up
import and export prices down *
 

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TheEye said:
I say it’s said to curb speculation. When the true numbers are revealed, I’m betting no hike. Then again, I’m starting to second guess like that guy in Princess Bride.

princess bride GIF
Click to expand...
We’ll see next month..the Tough talk could just be that.
 
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I like flat days. Low volatility means steady growth. Good for longterm strategies.
 
One thing that should give the soft landing people some comfort: Powell has adjusted quickly to issues like the reverse repo in 2019 and bank failures in 2023.
 

08:30		USDBuilding Permits (MoM)(May) 1.491M0.201.423M1.417M
08:30USDBuilding Permits Change(May) 5.2% 1.26-5% -1.4%
08:30USDHousing Starts (MoM)(May) 1.631M3.691.4M1.34M
08:30USDHousing Starts Change(May) 21.7% 4.33-0.8% -2.9%
Building and Housing starts up.
 
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New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May​


www.reuters.com

New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May

Groundbreaking on U.S. single-family homebuilding projects surged in May by the most in more than three decades and permits for future construction also climbed, suggesting the housing market may be turning a corner after getting clobbered by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
SpikeUM said:

New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May​


www.reuters.com

New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May

Groundbreaking on U.S. single-family homebuilding projects surged in May by the most in more than three decades and permits for future construction also climbed, suggesting the housing market may be turning a corner after getting clobbered by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...
Powell also said home market bottom was likely already hit.

My real estate assets are appreciating at a rate I have never seen. Rent is still going up across most markets im investing in. Feeling pretty good leaving equities for more real estate.
 
90scane said:
Powell also said home market bottom was likely already hit.

My real estate assets are appreciating at a rate I have never seen. Rent is still going up across most markets im investing in. Feeling pretty good leaving equities for more real estate.
Click to expand...

As I may have written many times before, there is a shortage in the Sunbelt, especially the Southeast. Occupancy is still in the 90's (which is excellent) and rents are still going up. Remember that even if they "only" go up 4%, its on top of the 20%+ they have recently risen.

There is also a fair amount of new construction, so there will be price swings, but in general, real estate should do well. Conversely, I wouldnt touch real estate in the northeast, far west, and midwest.
 
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SpikeUM said:
As I may have written many times before, there is a shortage in the Sunbelt, especially the Southeast. Occupancy is still in the 90's (which is excellent) and rents are still going up. Remember that even if they "only" go up 4%, its on top of the 20%+ they have recently risen.

There is also a fair amount of new construction, so there will be price swings, but in general, real estate should do well. Conversely, I wouldnt touch real estate in the northeast, far west, and midwest.
Click to expand...
As you know, I’m in Virginia which is doing well outside of northern Virginia. Hope to add more homes and diversify into Florida.

I can tell you the Keys are dead at this point. Very few transactions.
 
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Powell speaks today….never good..He has to talk tough.
I still say inflation will drop YoY
June inflation will be low as the economy is slowing.
 
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I have the Atlanta Fed on my side:

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday he thinks the Federal Reserve should hold interest rates steady at current levels through at least the end of this year to better judge the impact the central bank's aggressive rate hikes have had on the US economy.

"My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year," Bostic told Yahoo Finance in an interview on Wednesday.

"I actually think that we are still at the very early stages of our monetary policy tightening, starting to influence the economy in a significant way. I just feel like we have a little bit of time to just let that play out and see exactly how much the economy is responding to our policy.”

Bostic said it could take anywhere from 6 to 24 months for the economy to feel the full brunt of the Fed's policies.
 
We haven’t seen historically average rates in a long time. It’s prudent to see how they affect the economy and the value of the dollar.
Combine that with a reduction of the budget deficit and we might actually reach the Fed target rate of inflation. The problem is everyone in DC needs to give up something they believe in spending money on.
 

08:30		USDChicago Fed National Activity Index (May) TRADE NOW-0.15-0.9200.14
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Jun 9) TRADE NOW1.759M-1.301.782M1.772M
08:30USDCurrent Account(Q1) TRADE NOW$-219.3B-0.09$-218B$-216.2B
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Jun 16) TRADE NOW264K0.25260K264K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Jun 16)255.75K--247.25K
Jobless claims up, but not significantly
A lot of shorting going on.
 
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